人为气溶胶排放导致最近80年东亚夏季风在过去四个世纪以来空前减弱

亚洲夏季风(Asian Summer Monsoon,ASM)对亚洲数十亿人口的生存、亚洲生态系统和生物多样性的分布、以及农业生产(粮食安全)和工业活动影响严重。因此了解ASM过去时空变化及其动力学过程对陆地生态系统、水资源、森林和景观研究至关重要。近几十年,器测记录显示以降水量为代表的ASM强度一直在减弱,但这一减弱趋势的起始时间和动力学过程尚不清楚。为此,第一次集成了ASM西部-中部边缘带10个对降水敏感的树木年轮宽度年表,重建了公元1566年以来反映ASM强度变化的降水序列。重建结果不仅捕捉到了ASM过去4个世纪以来强弱变化历史,也反映出历史上蝗灾与弱季风的关联。特别是发现了最近80年具有过去448年中前所未有的、最为强烈的、显著且持续时间最长的ASM强度减弱趋势。这一减弱趋势与在温室效应影响下ASM本该增强的预期大相庭径。耦合气候模型实验表明,北半球人为硫酸盐气溶胶排放的逐渐增加,对ASM减弱起了决定性作用。     

基于“乡土—生态”系统韧性的红色旅游资源利用空间格局优化研究——以大别山革命老区为例

红色旅游资源利用与开发将对旅游地的人地关系地域系统产生强烈扰动,基于“乡土—生态”系统韧性水平厘定红色旅游资源利用空间格局,有利于推动红色旅游资源开发与区域可持续发展共促共赢。以大别山革命老区为例,从经济、社会、文化、生态四方面构建红色旅游地“乡土—生态”系统韧性水平评价体系,并对红色旅游资源的空间特征与类型进行识别。研究结果为：（1）各县域“乡土—生态”系统韧性以中低水平为主,呈“中部高、四周低”的空间分布特征。（2）区域内各子系统韧性处于勉强协调状态,县级行政单元的协调度呈现中等水平多、较高与较低水平少的“橄榄型”等级结构。（3）红色旅游资源的冷、热点区分别位于大别山南北两侧及中心地带,呈现出“大集聚、小分散”的特征,根据其规模、影响力划为五种聚类分区。（4）依据“乡土—生态”系统韧性在红色旅游资源高富集区可通过内部要素重构向更高水平发展、在中低密度区因吸纳和适应外界扰动力较弱而与红色旅游资源开发相互抑制这一特征,初步厘定“三区、两带、三核心”的红色旅游资源利用空间格局,并针对不同区域从“乡土—生态”系统韧性视角下提出差异化建议,以期排除红色旅游资源开发对“乡土—生态”系统产生的干扰。     

空间贫困分异特征、陷阱形成与致贫因素分析

消除贫困是中国共产党的一项重要历史使命。目前,中国脱贫攻坚进入关键的决战决胜阶段,精准脱贫成为实现乡村振兴及全面建成小康社会的关键问题。本文以贫困突出的江西革命老区为例,采用ESDA空间探索性分析和空间计量模型,探究其空间贫困分异特征、陷阱形成机制及影响因素,发现:①从时间维度看,2000—2016年,受国家贫困标准线大幅调整影响,江西革命老区贫困人口和贫困发生率呈现三个断点下降时期,总体脱贫进程加快。②从空间维度看,江西革命老区各县(市、区)的贫困人口和贫困发生率明显减少,贫困分异特征表现为高贫困地区集聚于南部的集中连片区或国家级贫困县,低贫困地区主要集聚于北部的非贫困区。③进一步通过空间检验发现,江西革命老区贫困以"高-高"集聚模式为主,并形成"空间贫困陷阱",均属于集中连片特困区或国家级贫困县;少数地区的贫困还存在"低-低"集聚模式,形成"脱贫溢出效应",均属于非贫困区。④实证结果表明,城乡收入之比和中学教师负担学生数显著加剧了江西革命老区贫困水平;而农民人均纯收入、卫生技术人员比例和农业机械化水平对减贫具有显著正向作用;贫困空间滞后项的显著为正也再次验证了江西革命老区"空间贫困陷阱"及"脱贫溢出效应"的存在性;相邻地区的农民人均纯收入和卫生技术人员比例的减贫效果存在显著的空间溢出效应。为此,本文提出实现江西革命老区精准脱贫建议。     

Perspectives on the landmark decision designating the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) as a threatened subspecies

Following an extensive legal battle challenging its original decision to not extend the protection of the Endangered Species Act to the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina), the US Fish and Wildlife Service was ordered by the 9th District Court of Appeals to reassess the status of the owl. As a result of the revised analysis, the service proposed the northern spotted owl for threatened status throughout its range. Because of the complex biological issues involved and the perceived potential for economic disruption in timber-dependent communities of the Pacific Northwest, this proposal generated more controversy and interest than any previous one. In this article I discuss the rationale for the service’s decision, public involvement in the process, and the mechanisms now available to conserve the northern spotted owl and its habitat under the Endangered Species Act.     

近四十年东北夏季低温冷害的气候特征

本文利用１９５１－１９９０年５－９月月平均气温计算东北三省５１个站的夏季低温冷害频率和严重低温冷害频率。其频率随纬度的增高而增大，山区频率比同纬度的平原地区大。     

Test of a Model to Assess the Condition of Lodgepole Pine Stands

/ A predictive model for assessing stand condition as a function of suitability for achieving specified management objectives was originally developed using a data set for only 28 stands. In this study, we evaluate the model using an operational-sized data set composed of currently collected stand inventory data for 238 stands in the Snowy Range of the Medicine Bow National Forest in southern Wyoming. We compared its predictions of old growth suitability to results of a separate special old growth survey. Stands were characterized as profiles of variables derived from stand inventory data, and plotted as points in two-dimensional space where similarity between stands was reflected by the distance between their points. Results suggest the model is useful for classifying stand condition using relatively large sets of data currently collected during routine stand inventories.     

Vocal alliances in Chacma baboons (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Papio hamadryas ursinus</Emphasis>)

Theory predicts that females in species with matrilineal dominance hierarchies should use nepotistic support systems to maintain their family’s rank. Female Old World monkeys, however, form alliances against other females at surprisingly low rates. Nonetheless, in many species, females utter threat vocalizations when observing others’ disputes, suggesting that these vocalizations may function as ‘vocal alliances’. We describe a playback experiment testing the efficacy of vocal alliances in free-ranging female baboons. Subjects were played the same female’s threat-grunts under three separate conditions: after being threatened by the signaller’s close relative to mimic kin support, after being threatened by a female maternally unrelated to the signaller to mimic non-kin support, and after a friendly interaction with the signaller’s close relative as a control. Subjects responded more strongly to the playback and avoided the signaller and her matrilineal relatives for a longer period of time in kin support trials than in either non-kin support or no aggression trials. In contrast, there was no difference in subjects’ behaviour between non-kin support and no aggression trials. These results corroborate observational data showing that vocal support occurs at a higher rate than physical support in female baboons, and that kin are more likely to provide vocal support than non-kin. We conclude that vocal support plays a similar role as physical support in the alliances of female baboons.     

东北老工业基地现状综合评价

东北老工业基地是我国最重要的老工业基地，振兴战略提出后，东三省的经济、社会和环境都会得到相应的发展。为了便于振兴战略更有效的实施，检验战略实施后的成效，需对现状进行综合评价。基于此，本文采用相对综合评价法，对东三省的经济、社会、资源和环境进行综合评价，对比与小康水平的差距，查找主要问题。     

清洁生产是振兴东北老工业基地必由之路

结合振兴东北老工业基地的国策 ,从东北现状、技术改造、资源生态、政策导向、鲁尔区的改造启示五个方面进行了分析 ,提出了一些关于如何振兴老工业基地的对策建议。     

昆明市不同功能区夏季空气微生物污染监测

为了监测和评价昆明市空气微生物污染状况,通过平皿自然沉降法,于2010年夏季对其不同功能区空气真菌和细菌进行了初步监测。结果表明:昆明市夏季空气微生物以细菌为主;以空气真菌含量评价为清洁;8月空气真菌含量最高,7月空气细菌含量最低;空气微生物含量日变化不明显。