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51.
Joseph Alcamo Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik Alexander Carius Frank Eierdanz Richard Klein Dörthe Krömker Dennis Tänzler 《Regional Environmental Change》2008,8(4):137-149
In this study we develop an “inference modeling” approach to compare and analyze how different disciplines (economics, political
science, and behavioral science/environmental psychology) estimate vulnerability to drought. It is thought that a better understanding
of these differences can lead to a synthesis of insights from the different disciplines and eventually to more comprehensive
assessments of vulnerability. The new methodology consists of (1) developing inference models whose variables and assertions
incorporate qualitative knowledge about vulnerability, (2) converting qualitative model variables into quantitative indicators
by using fuzzy set theory, (3) collecting data on the values of the indicators from case study regions, (4) inputting the
regional data to the models and computing quantitative values for susceptibility. The methodology was applied to three case
study regions (in India, Portugal and Russia) having a range of socio-economic and water stress conditions. In some cases
the estimates of susceptibility were surprisingly similar, in others not, depending on the factors included in the disciplinary
models and their relative weights. A new approach was also taken to testing vulnerability parameters by comparing estimated
water stress against a data set of drought occurrences based on media analysis. The new methodologies developed in this paper
provide a consistent basis for comparing differences between disciplinary perspectives, and for identifying the importance
of the differences.
相似文献
Joseph AlcamoEmail: |
52.
依据美国环境保护局工业环境实验室提出的多介质环境目标值(MEG)及其综合排放指数对IMC-932-H除氧缓蚀阻垢杀菌剂在使用过程中一旦泄漏或排放,可能对水环境质量、人体健康和生态系统产生的影响进行了安全性评估。 相似文献
53.
Roberto Bubbico Sergio Di Cave Barbara Mazzarotta 《Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries》2009,22(5):634
LNG ships may represent a remarkable risk source, especially when approaching a land terminal, not only due to the possible occurrence of maritime accident, but also since they may represent a suitable target for terrorist attacks. A preliminary risk analysis for LNG ships approaching the Panigaglia terminal is carried out: based on literature data and on the characteristics of the location, a spill originated from a sea accident can be excluded; on the contrary, intentional damages may cause the release of a large amount of LNG, giving rise to a pool fire. Consequence analysis shows that dangerous thermal effects are expected within a radius of 700–1500 m; in the location under exam, the impact on resident population will be negligible, for the most probable attack site, and marginal for an occasionally used anchorage, which should be no longer allowed. 相似文献
54.
Dennis Tänzler Moira Feil Dörthe Krömker Frank Eierdanz 《Regional Environmental Change》2008,8(4):187-195
For an integrated assessment of the vulnerability of societies to drought it is necessary to set the benchmark at a level where the impacts of droughts lead to a state of affairs that departs from normal conditions, i.e. a crisis event. This article aims to improve the understanding of drought-related crisis events on the basis of a twofold media content analysis. This approach enables us to test when increased vulnerability in fact leads to a crisis situation and offers an improved understanding of the intensity and the extent of crisis events. To this end, we first outline our perspective on crisis and give an overview on existing approaches to identify crisis events. We then outline our two-step approach of media content analysis aimed at developing a crisis data set for the case study regions Andhra Pradesh (India), Southern Portugal and the Volga region (Russia). Using the Factiva news database and information by regional newspapers, a crisis data set is generated enabling us to define the occurrence and extent of drought-related crisis events in the case study regions. Moreover, based on attributes of drought impacts reported by news sources, we categorize the extensiveness of a specific drought. As a key result, our findings suggest that Southern Portugal, the case study region which is expected to be less susceptible to drought events than the other case study regions, faced the most extended crisis events. 相似文献
55.
从秦沈客运专线工程建设办公信息系统的网络和系统内部安全机制出发 ,提出了大型交通工程项目办公自动化系统信息安全技术的理论和设计思路。系统而成功的运行为今后同类项目的安全设计提供了一种新的思路并有一定的参考价值。 相似文献
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We describe a case study where one software module of an existing physical access control system was re-developed using formal software development methods. Because of increased software quality and comparable development efforts, we are considering the use of formal methods for the future development of critical modules. Further results of this work include the identification of a critical property of the given requirements, as well as insights into overall requirements quality. 相似文献
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