Experimental verification for real-time environmental emergency response system: WSPEEDI by European tracer experiment

Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute has developed an emergency response system WSPEEDI to forecast long-range atmospheric dispersions of radionuclides discharged into the atmosphere. The latest version of WSPEEDI consists of an atmospheric dynamic model MM5 for calculating meteorological fields and a particle random-walk model for atmospheric dispersion. The performance of WSPEEDI was evaluated by data obtained from a field tracer experiment over Europe (ETEX) in this paper. The model validation was done with respect to the following points: (1) the dependence of model accuracy on the temporal and spatial resolutions of the meteorological fields and (2) the superiority of an atmospheric dynamic model over a mass-consistent wind model. Regarding (1), it was shown that the calculation accuracy of the new version with high temporal resolution was improved, especially at the edge of the plume. Moreover, although the increase in horizontal spatial resolution of the old version had no substantial effect on the model performance, increase in horizontal resolution of the new version contributed to the significant improvement of the calculation accuracy. These results showed that the dynamically calculated meteorological field with the spatial resolution of the meso-β–γ scale greatly improved calculation accuracy.     

Time as a constraint on group size in spider monkeys

An animal can only survive in a given habitat if it has enough time to find, process and digest food whilst avoiding predation. The time it has for food acquisition is affected by the vegetation and competition with conspecifics, which depends on aggregation tendencies. We used the relationships between time allocations, on the one hand, and climatic variables (as a proxy for habitat quality) and group size, on the other, to develop a model that predicts maximum ecologically tolerable group size at different locations for spider monkeys. Spider monkeys are particularly interesting because the social communities often split up into small units. Temperature variation and rainfall variation were the main determinants of time budgets. Community size and average annual rainfall determined party size. The model correctly predicted presence or absence of spider monkeys at 78–83% of 217 New World forest sites. Within the geographical range of the species, this time budget model predicted the presence of spider monkeys better than a model based directly on climate variables. Predicted community and party sizes were significantly larger at sites where spider monkeys are present than at sites where they are absent. As required by the model, predicted maximum community sizes were significantly larger than observed community sizes. Moving time showed a U-shaped relationship with party size, which suggests that moving time is the factor that keeps spider monkey communities from travelling together in a tight group.     

Effects of body mass,age, dominance and parasite load on foraging time of bighorn rams,<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Ovis canadensis</Emphasis>

In sexually dimorphic ungulates, males generally spend less time foraging than females, possibly because of difference in body mass or because of the energetic requirements of lactation. The relationship between body size and foraging time has received little attention at the intra-specific level, because few studies have documented activity budgets for individuals of known size. Bighorn rams are a good model to explore how body mass affects foraging time, because they range in mass from 55 to 140 kg. We examined how the foraging time of bighorn rams varied according to individual characteristics. We observed rams in a marked population and constructed time budgets during the 3 months preceding the rut. We determined ram social rank based on agonistic encounters and collected fecal samples to count lungworm larvae. Time spent foraging was negatively correlated with body mass. After accounting for age differences, larger rams spent less time foraging and more time lying than smaller rams. Among rams aged 6–12 years, dominants spent less time feeding than subordinates, while fecal output of lungworm larvae was negatively correlated with foraging time for rams of all ages. Body mass accounts for much of the individual variation in foraging time, suggesting that sexual dimorphism is important in explaining differences in feeding time between males and females.Communicated by P. Heeb     

Valuation of small and multiple health risks: A critical analysis of SP data applied to food and water safety

This study elicits individual risk preferences in the context of an infectious disease using choice experiments. A main objective is to examine scope sensitivity using a novel approach. Our results suggest that the value of a mortality risk reduction (VSL) is highly sensitive to the survey design. Our results cast doubt on the standard scope sensitivity tests in choice experiments, but also on the validity and reliability of VSL estimates based on stated-preference studies in general. This is important due to the large empirical literature on non-market evaluation and the elicited values’ central role in policy making.     

An analysis of variables influencing the material composition of automobiles

The use of materials is studied broadly, because of the environmental problems related to extraction, production, consumption and waste treatment. The use and substitution of materials in products is therefore a relevant issue for environmental policy making. Studies have been done to describe the material flow or to measure the impact of materials or products on the environment. However, these studies do not often consider economic, substitution and dynamic aspects of material flows. Other studies on material flows analyse the relationship between the use of materials and economic growth, but they do not consider substitution between materials. For environmental policy making economic, technological and environmental aspects of the use of materials need to be considered. Especially, substitution of materials is important. In various countries material and product policies are imposed on a variety of materials and products. For evaluation of these policies their environmental and economic effects need to be examined in detail. This study aims to analyse the economic and technological factors influencing the use of materials and the substitution between different materials dynamically. The goal is to obtain an insight in the effect that material levies may have on the use and substitution of materials. The statistical analysis is performed on a specific product-group because decisions on the use of materials are taken on a product-level. The case study is performed on automobiles. The results show that the material use is largely an autonomous development. The price of aluminium has a positive, significant effect on the use of that material. The price of plastics has a positive, but not significant effect on the use of plastics. Reasons may be that the costs of a raw material are small relative to the processing costs, and that the production process can only be changed slowly. Other factors, like competitiveness and consumers' tastes, may be more important for substitution. This implies that levies or subsidies on certain materials is not a promising policy to change the use of materials. Besides time, there are two other factors that have a positive and significant relationship with the use of aluminium and plastics: the fuel efficiency, which is the distance driven divided by the energy used; and, the road tax, which depends on the weight of a car. However, these effects are caused by their positive relationship with time. The main conclusion of the case study is that imposing a levy on materials may not have the desired or expected effect of reduction in material use.     

Trade-offs between time, predation risk and life history, and their implications for biogeography: A systems modelling approach with a primate case study

Group sizes are often considered to be the result of a trade-off between predation risk and the costs of feeding competition. We develop a model to explore the interaction between different ecological constraints on group sizes, using a primate (baboons) case study. The model uses climatic correlates of time budgets to predict maximum ecologically tolerable group size, and climatic predictors of predation risk (reflected mainly in predator density and female body mass) to predict minimum tolerable group size for any given habitat. As well as defining the range of sustainable group sizes for a given habitat, the model also allows us to reliably predict our exemplar taxon's biogeographical distribution across Africa. We also explore the life history implications of the model to ask whether baboons form group sizes which maximise survival or fecundity in the classic trade off between these two key life history variables. Our results indicate that, within the range of study sites in our sample, baboons prefer to maximise fecundity. However, the data indicate that in higher predation risk habitats they would switch to maximising survival at the expense of fecundity. We argue that this is due to the fact that interbirth interval and developmental rates have a ceiling that cannot be breached. Thus, while females can shorten interbirth intervals to compensate for increased predation risk, there is a limit to how much these life history variables can be altered, and when this is reached the best strategy is to maximise survivorship.     

滑坡灾害监测与预测时序分析

本文提出了一种边坡滑坡时序建模预测分析方法,以AR模型为例,探讨了时序建模及其预报的基本思想,最后用AR模型对清江电站进口边坡406阻滑键监测数据建模及预报,取得了一定的成果.     

天津市空气质量时间变化规律及相关性分析

按时间段对天津市环境空气监测国控点2005年的SO2、NO2和PM10监测数据进行统计分析,SO2、NO2和PM10时间变化规律呈现典型的双峰双谷型,SO2、NO2污染呈现明显的季节性,而PM10污染相对稳定。对SO2、NO2和PM10在全年、采暖期和非采暖期的时间变化进行相关性分析,结果表明,除了非采暖期NO2和SO2相关性不显著外,其它均存在较强的相关性。     

Municipal solid waste production and composition in Finland—Changes in the period 1960–2002 and prospects until 2020

Waste reduction was recognised as the main goal of waste management policy in the EU in the 1990s. Although knowledge of past waste generation is essential for effective waste reduction policy there are no comprehensive statistics on the past development of municipal solid waste (MSW) production. MSW management is currently under turmoil in many EU countries as the requirements of the EC landfill directive (1999/31/EC) are set into force. In this study, the production and composition of MSW in Finland between 1960 and 2002 is presented using historical data. The impact of population, affluence and technology on MSW production are analysed using the IPAT equation and three scenarios are constructed until year 2020. The results are compared with national future targets on MSW production. Production of MSW increased in Finland until 1990, declined to year 1997, increased to 2000 and then declined again. The share of organic and plastic waste increased over the study period while the share of paper and cardboard declined. The results suggest that so far national targets on MSW reduction have been set fairly low. Moreover, our scenarios depict a wide range of future MSW production, even though the time horizon is not longer than 15 years into the future. In order to narrow this range, continuous improvement of the statistics of MSW is essential.