自然灾害生态环境风险及其评价——以汶川地震极重灾区次生泥石流灾害为例

灾害生态环境风险评价的关键是评价不确定性灾害事件的发生概率和它对人类依存的生态系统造成的负面后果,评价步骤包括4个部分:受体分析、风险源的概率分析、暴露和脆弱性评价、风险表征。以汶川地震10个极重灾区的研究资料为基础,评价地震次生泥石流灾害生态环境风险指数和生态环境损失,并按照生态环境风险指数和生态环境损失大小对未来10县市的生态环境风险进行了排序。综合考虑2个评价结果,汶川县、北川县、绵竹市生态环境风险较高,安县、青川县、什邡市生态环境风险较低。     

龙门山区震后山地灾害地质因素敏感性评价

从与山地灾害关系密切的地质环境条件入手,选择了岩性和断裂带大指标,以龙门山区为典型区,根据灾害发生学原理,建立敏感性评价模型,定量分析了岩性、断裂带等对山地灾害的敏感性,并根据敏感性指标对研究区进行了敏感性区分。结果表明:岩性对山地灾害的敏感性从大到小依次为次硬岩硬岩软岩层极软岩层;断裂带对山地灾害的敏感度主要集中在距离断裂带0~2 km范围内。     

Organisational learning and self-adaptation in dynamic disaster environments

This paper examines the problems associated with inter-organisational learning and adaptation in the dynamic environments that characterise disasters. The research uses both qualitative and quantitative methods to investigate whether organisational learning took place during and in the time in between five disaster response operations in Turkey. The availability of information and its exchange and distribution within and among organisational actors determine whether self-adaptation happens in the course of a disaster response operation. Organisational flexibility supported by an appropriate information infrastructure creates conditions conducive to essential interaction and permits the flow of information. The study found that no significant organisational learning occurred within Turkish disaster management following the earthquakes in Erzincan (1992), Dinar (1995) and Ceyhan (1998). By contrast, the 'symmetry-breaking' Marmara earthquake of 1999 initiated a 'double loop' learning process that led to change in the organisational, technical and cultural aspects of Turkish disaster management, as revealed by the Duzce earthquake response operations.     

中山市城区避震疏散场所规划

当地震来临时,快速及时地将人员疏散到安全地带,能大大减少人员伤亡。因此,在地震频发、城市人口不断集中的今天,各城市应事先建设好避震疏散场所。通过对影响避震疏散场所选择的中山市城区地质构造背景与场地条件、以区为单位需安置人口数量、医疗救护点、易燃易爆危险源、避震疏散通道分布等要素的分析,并在野外勘查的基础上,参照关于建设避震疏散场所的规范和标准,对中山市城区避震疏散场所进行了规划。所规划的避震疏散场所安全可靠、布局合理,能够满足中山市城区的应急疏散需要。     

1999年土耳其伊兹米特地震

简要介绍了 1 999年土耳其伊兹米特地震的有关情况 ,包括 :震中附近地区的经济地位、构造背景、地震活动背景、震前地震预报研究国际合作情况 ;这次地震造成的地震灾害、破坏特征和灾害严重的主要原因以及土耳其对地震灾害的法制管理工作等