基于区间直觉模糊信息TODM法的水利工程应急决策研究

为更合理地进行应急方案比选,减少不确定因素和决策者偏好对决策结果的影响,构造了1种更加适应水利工程应急决策的模型。针对应急决策环境的模糊性和不确定性,引入区间直觉模糊集表达评价信息,采用区间直觉模糊熵计算各指标权重;通过构造备选方案两两比较矩阵,运用区间直觉模糊距离测度公式计算方案间的损益值;结合TODIM法计算各方案相对占优度并进行比较排序,确定最优方案。研究结果表明:在损失规避系数确定的前提下,选择任一区间直觉模糊距离公式都不影响方案的优劣排序,决策模型具有一定的可靠性和稳定性。     

不同入口位置的行人进入流实验研究

为了研究行人进入流运动规律,寻找合理的入口位置,对不同入口位置(中间、右侧)进行了不同人数(10人、20人、30人、40人)的可控实验。分析了行人进入流的时间、速度和空间分布,并统计了空间分布影响因素——入口避让、边界吸引、分布角度和空间关系的规律。结果表明,入口位于中间的设计更好,进入时间和稳定时间较短,速度更快,空间分布更合理。这些影响因素的统计,也为行人进入流的模型建立提供了实验基础。     

Recognising one’s enemies: a functional approach to risk assessment by prey

Little has been done to compare the relative importance of various mechanisms through which prey assess the potential risk from natural enemies. We used predator-naive spider mites (Tetranychus urticae, Tetranychidae) to (1) compare the responses of prey to chemical cues from enemy and non-enemy species and (2) investigate the source of these cues. In the laboratory, we observed the distribution of T. urticae in response to cues from nine mite species, including (1) predators of spider mites, (2) predators/parasites of other animals, and (3) fungivores/pollen-feeders. When given a choice over 24 h, spider mites foraged and oviposited in fewer numbers on leaf discs that were previously exposed to predatory or parasitic mites (including species incapable of attacking spider mites) than on clean leaf discs (unexposed to mites). Interestingly, previous exposure of leaf arenas to fungivores and pollen-feeders had no significant effect on spider mite distribution. We then observed the response of T. urticae to cues from two species of predator that had been reared on a diet of either spider mites or pollen. T. urticae showed stronger avoidance of leaf discs that were previously exposed to spider-mite-fed predators than of discs exposed to pollen-fed predators. Nevertheless, for one predator species (Amblyseius andersoni), T. urticae still preferred to forage and oviposit on clean (unexposed) discs than on discs exposed to pollen-fed predators. Protein-derived metabolic wastes of predatory or parasitic mites may provide a general cue about potential predation risk for T. urticae. However, T. urticae also avoided areas exposed to pollen-fed predators, suggesting there may be other sources of enemy recognition by the spider mites. We discuss the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that may influence the scope of information through which animals assess predation risk. Received: 11 January 1999 / Received in revised form: 25 October 1999 / Accepted: 20 November 1999     

A FIELD EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTS OF HEATED DISCHARGES ON FISH DISTRIBUTION1

ABSTRACT. Studies were conducted to determine the distribution of fish in the New and East Rivers in relation to thermal discharges from Appalachian Power Company's fossil fuel plant at Glen Lyn, Virginia. Over 15,300 specimens representing 41 species were collected with seines, electrogear and rotenone at six sampling locations from February, 1973 to October 1973. Sampling frequency was designed to evaluate the effects of ambient temperature upon preferred temperature. Diversity indices were calculated for each location. There was a slight decrease in the diversity indices for those stations located in the thermal discharge. Condition coefficients calculated for Notropis albeolus Jordan, Notropis rubellus Aqasaiz, Notropis spilopterus Cope, Ictalurus punctatus Rafinesque, and Etheostoma blennioides Rafuesque were found to be significantly (p =.05) lower in the thermal discharge for all species tested except E. blennioides. Temperatures were plotted against frequency of capture to determine a particular species temperature selection from field data and indicated that: (1) Some species avoided high temperatures (i.e., Curnpostoma anomalum Rafuesque). (2) Some species were attracted to high temperatures (i.e., Ictalurus punctatus). (3) Some species distribution was not effected by temperatures (i.e., Notropis spilopterus).     

Waste Management in Guangdong Cities: The Waste Management Literacy and Waste Reduction Preferences of Domestic Waste Generators

A questionnaire survey was conducted in 2002 on 1365 households in two prefectural-level cities in the Pearl River Delta, Jiangmen and Zhongshan. Three groups of issues are covered in this paper: 1) waste management literacy, concerns, and public participation; 2) waste recycling practices and the potential for waste avoidance; and 3) public environmental literacy. This study confirms findings from previous surveys and provides new information on important issues such as imposing monetary charges on waste and environmental activities, littering, source separation programs (SSPs), and public participation and expectations in local waste management. Saving up recyclable materials for redemption in waste depots is commonly practiced in mainland China regardless of the level of development of a city, although at the household level, high-income families tend to place less value on the revenues to be gained from redemption than lower income groups do. Data from the previous and the present studies indicate that such voluntary but largely economically driven waste recovery behavior diverts at least 10% of the household waste from the waste stream. Although uncompensated SSP is less appealing in the two cities than compensated SSP, it was found that when the median per capita income of a city reaches RMB2000 per month, a high participation rate for uncompensated waste recovery is more likely to occur. Education and income levels are the chief factors affecting littering behavior and the potential for waste avoidance. Contrary to general belief, the local Chinese community is active in microwaste management. The concern, however, is over the inability of the grassroots bureaucracy to deal with rising expectations for waste collection services and neighborhood cleanliness.     

Advanced driver assistance systems for teen drivers: A national survey of teen and parent perceptions

Abstract

Objective: Recently developed advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) have the potential to compensate for teen driving errors and reduce overall crash risk. To date, very limited research has been conducted on the suitability of ADAS for teen drivers—the population most likely to benefit from such systems. The opportunity for ADAS to reduce the frequency and severity of crashes involving teen drivers is hindered when there is a lack of trust, acceptance, and use of those technologies. Therefore, there is a need to study teen and parent perceptions of ADAS to help identify and overcome any potential barriers to ADAS use.

Methods: A U.S. national survey was developed based on themes from previously conducted teen and parent ADAS focus groups. Survey topics included trust in ADAS, effect of ADAS on teen driver safety and driving behavior, effect of ADAS on skill development, data privacy, and cybersecurity. Responses included 5-point Likert scales and open-ended questions. The survey was managed through an online respondent panel by ResearchNow. Eligibility criteria included licensed teens (16–19 years) and parents of licensed teens. Teen and parent responses were compared using chi-square statistics in SAS 9.4.

Results: Two thousand and three (teens?=?1,000; parents?=?1,003) respondents qualified for and completed the survey between September 1 and September 20, 2017. Overall, teens (72%) and parents (61%) felt that ADAS would have a positive impact on transportation. However, teens were more likely to exhibit a positive outlook on ADAS, whereas parents were more likely to have a negative outlook (P?<?.01). Teens felt that ADAS would be useful during bad weather or drowsy driving but were less concerned than parents about ADAS intervention during their own risky driving (P?<?.01). The majority of teens (65%) and parents (71%) agreed that teens should learn to drive on vehicles without ADAS, with parents being more likely to agree than teens (P?<?.01). Parents (55%) were more likely than teens (47%) to be concerned about insurance companies keeping track of teen driving data (P?<?.01). Most respondents exhibited some concern of ADAS being susceptible to hacking (57%).

Conclusions: This study represents the first effort to quantify ADAS perceptions among teen drivers and their parents at the U.S. national level. These data highlight potential barriers to ADAS use among teen drivers, including a relative disinterest among teens for ADAS intervention during risky driving as well as concerns among both teens and parents that ADAS will inhibit skill development. These survey findings will help inform educational programs to accelerate fleet turnover and provide the foundation for ADAS optimization and evaluation studies among sociodemographic groups.     

船-桥避碰监测预警系统研究

为提高桥区船舶航行安全,提出一种基于智能视频处理技术的船-桥避碰监测预警系统。该系统实时采集桥区场景视频,利用视频处理技术自动检测运动船舶目标,基于视觉几何模型进行船舶空间定位,提取船舶运动态势参数,并结合船舶航行操纵知识和相关模型,进行船-桥碰撞风险预测,输出避碰操纵命令。大量仿真及现场试验结果表明,该系统能检测出航行异常船舶并输出避碰操纵命令,达到主动避碰的目的。     

Assessing cypermethrin-contaminated soil with three di erent earthworm test methods

A series of tests (lethal, sublethal, and behavioral) on earthworms were conducted as an eco-assessment of pesticides. In this study, the toxicity of cypermethrin-contaminating soil on adult and juvenile earthworms was assessed. Beside the acute and chronic tests, an avoidance response test was carried out. It was shown that the all-round toxicity from cypermethrin was weak on adult earthworms. Compared with adult earthworms, the toxicity of juvenile earthworms from cypermethrin especially chronic toxicity increased significantly. Growth and reproduction of earthworms appeared to be more severely a ected by cypermethrin at juvenile stage than at adult stage. Applied at 10 mg/kg, cypermethrin had obvious adverse impact on the growth of juvenile earthworms, while 20 mg/kg, cypermethrin caused significant toxic e ects in reproduction. The results also indicated that ecotoxicological risk assessment using only adult specimens may underestimate the e ects of cypermethrin on soil invertebrate populations.     

Voronoi尾流规避下的风电场布局安全性研究

为了降低尾流对风电场稳定输出和风力机发电性能的危害,在现存风电场风力机布置优化布局方法下,提出结合1种基于几何约束辅助的Voronoi图的全新优化方法,对现行的几种代表性的风电场布局进行二次迭代优化,并利用WAsP软件对优化前后的布局做对照数值仿真计算。研究结果表明:优化后的布局可有效规避尾流效应,提高风电系统的稳定输出性和安全供电,并提高风电能量利用率。本文以Voronoi几何生成特性为研究核心,在总结一般规律下,结合程序化计算思维、人工智能、计算机图形学算法等知识,深入探讨Voronoi风场布局计算模拟仿真的未来应用可行性,得出其提高精度的有效方法,同时为风电场布局理论和其他学科的交叉融合提供创新思路。     

Technology and teen drivers

The rapid evolution of computing, communication, and sensor technology is likely to affect young drivers more than others. The distraction potential of infotainment technology stresses the same vulnerabilities that already lead young drivers to crash more frequently than other drivers. Cell phones, text messaging, MP3 players, and other nomadic devices all present a threat because young drivers may lack the spare attentional capacity for vehicle control and the ability to anticipate and manage hazards. Moreover, young drivers are likely to be the first and most aggressive users of new technology. Fortunately, emerging technology can also support safe driving. Electronic stability control, collision avoidance systems, intelligent speed adaptation, and vehicle tracking systems can all help mitigate the threats to young drivers. However, technology alone is unlikely to make young drivers safer. One promising approach to tailoring technology to teen drivers is to extend proven methods for enhancing young driver safety. The success of graduated drivers license programs (GDL) and the impressive safety benefit of supervised driving suggest ways of tailoring technology to the needs of young drivers. To anticipate the effects of technology on teen driving it may be useful to draw an analogy between the effects of passengers and the effects of technology. Technology can act as a teen passenger and undermine safety or it can act as an adult passenger and enhance safety. Impact on industry: Rapidly developing technology may have particularly large effects on teen drivers. To maximize the positive effects and minimize the negative effects will require a broad range of industries to work together. Ideally, vehicle manufacturers would work with infotainment providers, insurance companies, and policy makers to craft new technologies so that they accommodate the needs of young drivers. Without such collaboration young drivers will face even greater challenges to their safety as new technologies emerge.