SOME SIMPLE MODELS FOR CONTINUOUS VARIATE TIME SERIES1

ABSTRACT: A survey is given of recently developed models for continuous variate non–Gaussian time series. The emphasis is on marginally specific models with given correlation structure. Exponential, Gamma, Weibull, Laplace, Beta and Mixed Exponential models are considered for the marginal distributions of the stationary time series. Most of the models are random coefficient, additive linear models. Some discussion of the meaning of autoregression and linearity is given, as well as suggestions for higher–order linear residual analysis for non–Gaussian models.     

THE OPPORTUNITY COST OF TIME AND AVERTING EXPENDITURES FOR SAFE DRINKING WATER1

ABSTRACT: A survey of individuals during a Giardia contamination incident provided data to calculate the cost of boiling, hauling, or purchasing water to avoid infection. Three different approaches to the valuation of time were used to assess the implications of the opportunity cost of time for the measurement of averting costs. Mean monthly household averting costs were $33.47 using family income to value time, $13.07 using the minimum wage to value time, and $5.60 using zero opportunity cost of time. Comparisons of the mean costs for different sources and household characteristics indicated the value of time from family income was too high and that the other methods of valuing time were superior.     

GOALS AND DATA COLLECTION DESIGNS FOR WATER QUALITY MONITORING1

ABSTRACT: Water quality monitoring cannot address every information need through one data collection procedure. This paper discusses the goals and related procedures for designing water quality monitoring programs. The discussion focuses on the broad information needs of those agencies operating water quality networks. These information needs include the ability to assess trends and environmental impacts, determine compliance with objectives or standards, estimate mass transport, and perform general surveillance. Each of these information needs has different data requirements. This paper outlines these goals and discusses factors to consider in developing a monitoring plan on a site by site basis.     

陕西省近10年自然灾害的损失规律

本文主要根据自然灾害损失资料,对陕西近10a自然灾害损失时空规律、各灾种特点、损失结构进行了较详尽讨论,并进行了损失强度分区。     

THE WATER BALANCE IN NEWFOUNDLAND1

ABSTRACT: Due to the lack of instrumentally obtained data on evaporation in Newfoundland, and the underrepresentation of precipitation values an accurate assessment of the water balance of the Province is not possible at this time. The various existent assessments of PE and AE are reviewed and water surplus of the Island is calculated.     

苏北盆地玄武岩地质年龄及地层时代

本文以快中子活化（39Ar／40Ar）法、K—Ar法为主要手段．通过16个玄武岩样品地质年龄的测定和分析．首次建立了苏北盆地泰州组—盐城组玄武岩喷发年代时间剖面，并对各级段的界线年龄进行了修正。提出了白垩系和第三系的界线在泰州组与阜宁组之间．古新统与始新统界线在阜宁组—～二段和三～四段之间、始新统与渐统界线在三垛组一段和二段之间，本区缺失上渐新统地层。     

Phosphorus loss from different farming systems estimated from soil surface phosphorus balance

The phosphorus load originating from crop production and animal husbandry is a major contributor to the eutrophication of lakes, rivers and coastal waters. The P losses to surface waters may, however, differ drastically due to the diversity of agricultural production systems practised under contrasting environmental conditions. To assess the most problematic types of agriculture, we need information on the P load from different alternative farming practices. Such information cannot, however, be obtained solely from field runoff experiments, as the number of treatment combinations required to account for all relevant farming systems and environmental conditions far exceeds our research capabilities. To facilitate the comparison of P loads, we therefore need reasonably simple models. A key factor controlling the P load from agriculture is the past and present use of nutrients in fertilizers and manure in relation to a crop's uptake, i.e. the soil-surface balance of P. Here, we present a simple empirical model that relates the P surplus (or deficit) in a farm to the edge-of-field losses of algal-available P. Based on long-term fertilizer trials, the model first estimates the change in soil-test P of top soil with the aid of the soil-surface balance of P. Soil-test P is then used to approximate the concentration of dissolved reactive P in surface runoff and drainage flow, as adjusted for different P application types. The loss of particulate P is obtained from typical erosion rates. The model can be applied in life-cycle analyses and in assessing future developments. We illustrate use of the model by calculating the loss of algal-available P from conventional and organic crop and dairy farms located on clay and fine sand soils.     

降水中离子浓度与pH值的确定性相关关系研究

关于降水中离子浓度与pH值关系问题的研究多是基于降水化学数据的统计分析。从酸碱平衡理论出发 ,在电中性方程的基础上 ,建立了降水中离子浓度与pH值的确定性相关关系式。结果表明 ,该式具有普适性 ,是反映多种离子综合作用的重要参数。用公式对 50组降水化学数据做了计算分析 ,结果表明 ,降水离子浓度与 pH值的关系研究应考虑足够多的离子种类 ,降水化学数据也应满足 :( 1 )离子平衡值等于或接近 1 .0 ;( 2 )ΔC的正负号与 pH值范围的关系协调一致。可作为降水化学数据是否准确、合理的判据     

佛山市区酸雨时空分布特征及其成因分析

从致酸源、地理环境、工业状况、气候条件等因素分析了佛山市酸雨的成因，提出一些控制酸雨污染的建议。     

Alga-lysing bioreactor and the dominant bacteria strain

Alga-lysing bacteria have been paid much attention to in recent years. In this study, the alga-lysing strain P05 which was isolated from an immobilizing biosystem was immobilized by coke and elastic filler, forming two biological reactors. The removal efficiencies of algae, NH3-N and organic matter using the two reactors were studied. The results showed that strain P05 was an ideal algal-lysing bacteria strain because it was easy to be immobilized by coke and elastic filler which are of cheap, low biodegradability and the simple immobilization procedure. After 7 d filming, the biological film could be formed and the reactors were used to treat the eutrophic water. These two reactors were of stability and high effect with low cost and easy operation. The optimal hydraulic retention time (HRT) of each reactor was 4 h. The algae removal rates were 80.38% and 82.1% (in term of Chl-a) of coke reactor and filler reactor, respectively. And that of NH3-N were 52.3% and 52.7%. The removal rates of CODMn were 39.03% and 39.64%. The strain P05 was identified as Bacillus sp. by PCR amplification of the 16S rRNA gene, BLAST analysis, and comparison with sequences in the GenBank nucleotide database.