猪肉价格周期波动的时空差异特征及影响因素研究

我国作为猪肉生产大国、消费大国,猪肉价格波动事关普通百姓生活。利用2001—2019年猪肉价格省级面板数据,对猪肉价格长期波动的空间差异性进行了分析。结果表明:①从我国八大经济区及调入区、调出区猪肉价格区域差异测度结果来看,北部沿海区域内各省份猪肉价格差异最大,东北区域和长江中游区域差异较小;同时从猪肉价格差异贡献率来看,区域内差异贡献率更大。②从猪肉价格波动时空演进测度结果来看,地区间差异明显存在,同时各省份之间空间集聚性呈现出波动状态,表现出先减弱后增强的长期趋势。③从对猪肉价格周期性变化规律分析结果来看,价格波动存在明显的周期性,“猪瘟”、重大疫情等突发因素短期影响作用较大,而常规因素的影响才是价格波动真正推手。④在所筛选的猪肉价格常规影响因素中,育肥猪配合饲料价格、仔猪价格、地区生产总值引起猪肉价格差异的作用显著,且育肥猪配合饲料价格对猪肉价格差异影响程度最大。     

Derivation of hazardous doses for amphibians acutely exposed to ionising radiation

Derivation of effect benchmark values for each taxonomic group, which has been difficult due to lack of experimental effects data, is required for more adequate protection of the environment from ionising radiation. Estimation of effects doses from nuclear DNA mass and subsequent species sensitivity distribution (SSD) analysis were proposed as a method for such a derivation in acute irradiation situations for assumed nuclear accident scenarios. As a case study, 5% hazardous doses (HD₅s), at which only 5% of species are acutely affected at 50% or higher lethality, were estimated on a global scale. After nuclear DNA mass data were obtained from a database, 50% lethal doses (LD₅₀s) for 4.8 and 36% of the global Anura and Caudata species, respectively, were estimated by correlative equations between nuclear DNA mass and LD₅₀s. Differences between estimated and experimental LD₅₀s were within a factor of three. The HD₅s obtained by the SSD analysis of these estimated LD₅₀s data were 5.0 and 3.1 Gy for Anura and Caudata, respectively. This approach was also applied to the derivation of regional HD₅s. The respective HD₅s were 6.5 and 3.2 Gy for Anura and Caudata inhabiting Japan. This HD₅ value for the Japanese Anura was significantly higher than the global value, while Caudata had no significant difference in global and Japanese HD₅s. These results suggest that this approach is also useful for derivation of regional benchmark values, some of which are likely different from the global values.