Environmental Synergisms and Extinctions of Tropical Species

Abstract: Environmental synergisms may pose the greatest threat to tropical biodiversity. Using recently updated data sets from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, we evaluated the incidence of perceived threats to all known mammal, bird, and amphibian species in tropical forests. Vulnerable, endangered, and extinct species were collectively far more likely to be imperiled by combinations of threats than expected by chance. Among 45 possible pairwise combinations of 10 different threats, 69%, 93%, and 71% were significantly more frequent than expected for threatened mammals, birds, and amphibians, respectively, even with a stringent Bonferroni‐corrected probability value (p= 0.003). Based on this analysis, we identified five key environmental synergisms in the tropics and speculate on the existence of others. The most important involve interactions between habitat loss or alteration (from agriculture, urban sprawl, infrastructure, or logging) and other anthropogenic disturbances such as hunting, fire, exotic‐species invasions, or pollution. Climatic change and emerging pathogens also can interact with other threats. We assert that environmental synergisms are more likely the norm than the exception for threatened species and ecosystems, can vary markedly in nature among geographic regions and taxa, and may be exceedingly difficult to predict in terms of their ultimate impacts. The perils posed by environmental synergisms highlight the need for a precautionary approach to tropical biodiversity conservation.     

Identifying Habitat Variables Important to the Rare Columbia Spotted Frog in Utah (U.S.A.): an Information-Theoretic Approach

Abstract:  We identified habitat associations of the rare Columbia spotted frog (  Rana luteiventris ). We used an information-theoretic approach that encouraged careful consideration of previous studies, demanded a priori formulation of hypotheses and models, and provided interpretable results while avoiding some criticisms of traditional statistical analyses. We formulated hypotheses about habitat associations based on conductivity, emergent vegetation, littoral zone depth, pond hydrology, and water temperature. We modeled hypothesized associations with logistic regression and used Akaike's information criterion to quantify evidence for models, weigh the relative importance of each habitat variable, and select predictive models. Although variable, results suggested that spotted frogs are more likely to occur in ponds that do not shrink in size seasonally, maintain relatively constant seasonal water temperature, and have high emergent vegetation cover. Associations we identified will assist actions in Utah that may be critical to local persistence of spotted frogs. Moreover, this approach for identifying associations has great potential for other rare species.     

Exploring tensions and conflicts in invasive species management: The case of Asian carp

There is a growing recognition that scientific and social conflict pervades invasive species management, but there is a need for empirical work that can help better understand these conflicts and how they can be addressed. We examined the tensions and conflicts facing invasive Asian carp management in Minnesota by conducting 16 in-depth interviews with state and federal agency officials, academics, and stakeholders. Interviewees discussed the tensions and conflicts they saw impacting management, their implications, and what could be done to address them. We found three key areas of conflict and tension in Asian carp management: 1) scientific uncertainty concerning the impacts of Asian carp and the efficacy and non-target effects of possible management actions; 2) social uncertainty concerning both the lack of societal agreement on how to respond to Asian carp and the need to avoid acting from apathy and/or fear; and 3) the desired approach to research and management – whether it is informed by “political need” or “biological reality”. Our study of these tensions and conflicts reveals their importance to Asian carp management and to invasive species management, more broadly. We conclude with a discussion of possible ways to address these areas of tension and conflict, including the potential of deliberative, participatory approaches to risk-related decision making and the need to productively engage with apathy and fear.     

Sex pheromone components of pyralid moths Terastia subjectalis and Agathodes ostentalis feeding on the coral tree, Erithrina variegata: Two sympatric species share common components in different ratios

Summary. Two common components, identified as (E)-11-hexadecenal (E11-16:Ald) and (E,E)-10,12-hexadecadienal (E10E12-16:Ald), were found in the extract of virgin females of two sympatric pyralid moths, Terastia subjectalis Lederer, and Agathodes ostentalis (Geyer). The amount of E11-16:Ald and E10E12-16:Ald was 0.12 and 2.8 ng/female for T. subjectalis and 2.0 and 1.8 ng/female for A. ostentalis, respectively. Hexadecanal (16:Ald) was also found at 0.7 ng/female in the extract of A. ostentalis, but EAG activity was unclear. In the field, T. subjectalis and A. ostentalis males were captured with species specific blends in the proportions of 5:95 and 50:50 blends. Blends attractive to one species did not attract the opposite one. Rubber septa loaded with 1 mg each of 5:95 and 50:50 blends of E11-16:Ald and E10E12-16:Ald were as attractive as two virgin females of T. subjectalis and A. ostentalis , respectively. This demonstrated that different ratios of shared pheromone components could provide species specific cues for critical mate location in the two sympatric pyralid moths. It is suggested that directional selection probably occurs in the pheromone blends in opposite directions in both species.     

Using Scalar Models for Precautionary Assessments of Threatened Species

Abstract:  Scalar population models, commonly referred to as count-based models, are based on time-series data of population sizes and may be useful for screening-level ecological risk assessments when data for more complex models are not available. Appropriate use of such models for management purposes, however, requires understanding inherent biases that may exist in these models. Through a series of simulations, which compared predictions of risk of decline of scalar and matrix-based models, we examined whether discrepancies may arise from different dynamics displayed due to age structure and generation time. We also examined scalar and matrix-based population models of 18 real populations for potential patterns of bias in population viability estimates. In the simulation study, precautionary bias (i.e., overestimating risks of decline) of scalar models increased as a function of generation time. Models of real populations showed poor fit between scalar and matrix-based models, with scalar models predicting significantly higher risks of decline on average. The strength of this bias was not correlated with generation time, suggesting that additional sources of bias may be masking this relationship. Scalar models can be useful for screening-level assessments, which should in general be precautionary, but the potential shortfalls of these models should be considered before using them as a basis for management decisions.     

Integrating the Metapopulation and Habitat Paradigms for Understanding Broad-Scale Declines of Species

Abstract:  Caughley (1994) argued that researchers working on threatened populations tended to follow the "small population paradigm" or the "declining population paradigm," and that greater integration of these paradigms was needed. Here I suggest that two related paradigms exist at the broader spatial scale, namely the metapopulation paradigm and habitat paradigm, and that these two paradigms also need to be integrated if we are to provide sound management advice. This integration is not trivial, and I outline five problems that need to be addressed: (1) habitat variables may not measure habitat quality, so site-specific data on vital rates are needed to resolve the effects of habitat quality and metapopulation dynamics; (2) measurements of vital rates may be confounded by movements; (3) vital rates may be density dependent; (4) vital rates may be affected by genotype; and (5) vital rates cannot be measured in unoccupied patches. I reviewed papers published in Conservation Biology from 1994 to 2003 and found 41 studies that analyzed data from 10 or more sites to understand the factors limiting species' distributions. Five of the analyses presented were purely within the metapopulation paradigm, 14 were purely within the habitat paradigm, 17 involved elements of both paradigms, and 7 were theoretically ambiguous (2 papers presented 2 distinct analyses and were counted twice). This suggests that many researchers appreciate the need to integrate the paradigms. Only one study, however, used data on vital rates to resolve the effects of habitat quality and metapopulation dynamics (problem 1), and this study did not address problems 2–5. I conclude that more intensive research incorporating site-specific data on vital rates and movement is needed to complement the numerous analyses of distributional data being produced.     

环境因素对曲阜市鹭鸟种类变化的影响初探

在曲阜的孔庙生活着多种鹭鸟.除了被市政府定为市鸟的鹭鸶(白鹭)之外,同时还生活着苍鹭、池鹭和夜鸟等鹭鸟.从二十世纪八十年代到现在,由于水、空气、食物等环境的变化造成鹭鸟的种类经历了自然期、变化期、恢复期三个时期的变化.     

A Multiscale Landscape Approach to Predicting Bird and Moth Rarity Hotspots in a Threatened Pitch Pine–Scrub Oak Community

Abstract:  In the northeastern United States, pitch pine (  Pinus rigida Mill.)–scrub oak ( Quercus ilicifolia Wang.) communities are increasingly threatened by development and fire suppression, and prioritization of these habitats for conservation is of critical importance. As a basis for local conservation planning in a pitch pine–scrub oak community in southeastern Massachusetts, we developed logistic-regression models based on multiscale landscape and patch variables to predict hotspots of rare and declining bird and moth species. We compared predicted moth distributions with observed species-occurrence records to validate the models. We then quantified the amount of overlap between hotspots to assess the utility of rare birds and moths as indicator taxa. Species representation in hotspots and the current level of hotspot protection were also assessed. Predictive models included variables at all measured scales and resulted in average correct classification rates (optimal cut point) of 85.6% and 89.2% for bird and moth models, respectively. The majority of moth occurrence records were within 100 m of predicted habitat. Only 13% of all bird hotspots and 10% of all moth hotspots overlapped, and only a few small patches in and around Myles Standish State Forest were predicted to be hotspots for both taxa. There was no correlation between the bird and moth species-richness maps across all levels of richness ( r =−0.03, p = 0.62). Species representation in hotspots was high, but most hotspots had limited or no protection. Given the lack of correspondence between bird and moth hotspots, our results suggest that use of species-richness indicators for conservation planning may be ineffective at local scales. Based on these results, we suggest that local-level conservation planning in pitch pine–scrub oak communities be based on multitaxa, multiscale approaches.     

Biotic Ligand Model的简化模型及预测性能评价

通过检索4物种(Fathead minnow、D.magna、D.pulex、Rainbow trout)在地表水中实测的铜半致死浓度(Observed_LC50),及Biotic Ligand Model(BLM)预测其半致死浓度(Predicted_LC50),得到4物种的预测精度依次为0.075、0.52、0.96、0.29,模型对Fathead minnow与Rainbow trout的预测性能较差.在此基础上,分析显示预测误差值与LA50呈指数关系,表明LA50值并非常数值.通过对BLM的LA50的校正,Fathead minnow与Rainbow trout的预测精度升为0.59、0.42.通过分析LA50与硬度的关系,发现BLM在软水环境中预测效果较差.另外,随机均匀生成500组水质参数组,通过BLM预测,筛选出4项敏感参数为DOC、pH、HCO-3浓度及温度,并建立相应物种的LC50与其的多元线性关系,大大简化了生物配位模型.