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11.
采用风险分类-要素分析-风险排序的思路,对北京市核与辐射恐怖事件风险进行分析。根据国际上1998—2006年该类恐怖事件的实例,从事件所涉及的材料、场所角度将核与辐射恐怖事件分为6大类。结合北京市的实际情况进行涉核恐怖事件的要素分析,将北京市各类场所划分为4类敏感区并与5类涉核恐怖事件结合起来,得到北京市核与辐射恐怖事件风险构成图。通过风险分析,笔者认为北京市发生核与辐射恐怖事件风险最大的场所为核研究机构,最容易发生的核与辐射恐怖事件类型为涉及放射源的恐怖事件,结合分析结果对从阻止、探测、响应3个层次上提出了奥运核安保工作的反核恐工作建议。 相似文献
12.
对安全评价方法在危险废物处置建设项目环境风险评价中的运用进行初步探索。主要用"工艺过程风险因素分析表"对工艺过程潜在风险性识别;用蒙德法进行源项分析;用池火灾模型、蒸气云爆炸伤害模型对易燃、易爆物质的火灾、爆炸等重大事故后果进行计算,得出人员的伤亡半径和财产损失半径等参数,以便于判断风险的可接受水平。分析结果表明:采用安全评价方法对危险废物处置建设项目进行环境风险评价是适用的、可行的。 相似文献
13.
14.
Use of USLE/GIS Methodology for Predicting Soil Loss in a Semiarid Agricultural Watershed 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) is an erosion model to estimate average soil loss that would generally result from
splash, sheet, and rill erosion from agricultural plots. Recently, use of USLE has been extended as a useful tool predicting
soil losses and planning control practices in agricultural watersheds by the effective integration of the GIS-based procedures
to estimate the factor values in a grid cell basis. This study was performed in the Kazan Watershed located in the central
Anatolia, Turkey, to predict soil erosion risk by the USLE/GIS methodology for planning conservation measures in the site.
Rain erosivity (R), soil erodibility (K), and cover management factor (C) values of the model were calculated from erosivity
map, soil map, and land use map of Turkey, respectively. R values were site-specifically corrected using DEM and climatic
data. The topographical and hydrological effects on the soil loss were characterized by LS factor evaluated by the flow accumulation
tool using DEM and watershed delineation techniques. From resulting soil loss map of the watershed, the magnitude of the soil
erosion was estimated in terms of the different soil units and land uses and the most erosion-prone areas where irreversible
soil losses occurred were reasonably located in the Kazan watershed. This could be very useful for deciding restoration practices
to control the soil erosion of the sites to be severely influenced. 相似文献
15.
航班起飞过程的风险识别与控制 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
飞机起飞阶段是事故多发阶段,为了进行风险识别与控制,设计了定性判别方法和定量计算仿真算法,并以具体飞机坠毁事故为例分析了安全裕度.分别计算了飞机冲出跑道的速度、距离和逃生时间.中断起飞的速度与时间,是火灾发生后的判断关键,也构成了飞机起飞事故的裕度.结果表明,中断起飞的安全裕度比坠毁的大,且关于中断起飞的规定有矛盾之处;用于逃生的90 s规则高于中断起飞的决断速度的限制规定.该分析方法为处理危急时刻的两难决策问题提供了理论指导. 相似文献
16.
BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE: Conjoint analysis and the related choice-modelling methods have been used for many years in marketing research to evaluate consumer behaviour and preferences for different kinds of product attributes. Recently, the number of applications in environmental science and management has started to grow. Conjoint analysis is found in many different forms, and the environmental studies evaluated in this review display the same range of methods as in other fields. The key characteristic of all these methods is that trade-offs are evaluated by jointly considering a number of important attributes. MAIN FEATURES: This paper is a review of the literature on environmental applications of conjoint analysis and assesses in which environmental area conjoint analysis has been most successful. The method and the design of the studies are reviewed as well. RESULTS: A total of 84 studies were found, dealing with environmental issues that were evaluated by conjoint analysis. The studies concern agriculture, ecosystem management, energy, environmental evaluation, forestry, land management, pollution, products, recreation, environmental risk analysis and waste management. DISCUSSION: Choice experiments seem to have a comparatively stronger position in environmental studies than elsewhere. Most of the environmental applications are related to natural resource management. This is somewhat surprising, but a number of reports have appeared also on product evaluation, which could be a key application area in the future. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to marketing and transportation, the number of environmental conjoint studies is rather small but increasing, and the method has proven to work effectively in eliciting preferences on environmental issues. In environmental issues, experimenters often use choice experiments, especially concerning ecosystem management and environmental evaluations. When it comes to evaluating preferences concerning agriculture, forestry, energy and products, a more traditional approach of conjoint analysis is favoured. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: Two new areas of application are identified in this review--environmental communication and expert elicitation. Conjoint analysis can thus be developed into a useful instrument for environmental risk analysis and communication, both of which are necessary for an efficient approach to risk governance. 相似文献
17.
Lemly AD 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2007,125(1-3):361-375
This paper gives step-by-step instructions for assessing aquatic selenium hazards associated with mining. The procedure was
developed to provide the U.S. Forest Service with a proactive capability for determining the risk of selenium pollution when
it reviews mine permit applications in accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). The procedural framework
is constructed in a decision-tree format in order to guide users through the various steps, provide a logical sequence for
completing individual tasks, and identify key decision points. There are five major components designed to gather information
on operational parameters of the proposed mine as well as key aspects of the physical, chemical, and biological environment
surrounding it — geological assessment, mine operation assessment, hydrological assessment, biological assessment, and hazard
assessment. Validation tests conducted at three mines where selenium pollution has occurred confirmed that the procedure will
accurately predict ecological risks. In each case, it correctly identified and quantified selenium hazard, and indicated the
steps needed to reduce this hazard to an acceptable level. By utilizing the procedure, NEPA workers can be confident in their
ability to understand the risk of aquatic selenium pollution and take appropriate action. Although the procedure was developed
for the Forest Service it should also be useful to other federal land management agencies that conduct NEPA assessments, as
well as regulatory agencies responsible for issuing coal mining permits under the authority of the Surface Mining Control
and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) and associated Section 401 water quality certification under the Clean Water Act. Mining companies
will also benefit from the application of this procedure because priority selenium sources can be identified in relation to
specific mine operating parameters. The procedure will reveal the point(s) at which there is a need to modify operating conditions
to meet environmental quality goals. By recognizing concerns early in the NEPA process, it may be possible for a mining company
to match operational parameters with environmental requirements, thereby increasing the likelihood that the permit application
will be approved. 相似文献
18.
爆炸事故过程分析中不确定性问题处理方法 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
针对事故过程分析中的不确定性问题,指出了不确定问题在危险分析中的重要性及处理该问题的复杂性和难点,列出了几种基于非线性数学方法处理不确定问题的基本方法,如微分法、MonteCarlo模拟、Fourier方法、响应表面法等,并对之进行了比较.建议在处理事故过程的不确定性时采用Monte Carlo模拟. 相似文献
19.
20.
铅锌矿区玉米中重金属污染特征及健康风险评价 总被引:11,自引:10,他引:1
以西南某铅锌矿区为研究区域,测定了92份玉米样品中Pb、Zn、Cd、Cr和Ni的含量,开展了矿区玉米籽粒中重金属污染特征及健康风险研究.应用单因子污染指数和内梅罗综合污染指数分析了重金属在玉米中的污染状况,采用健康风险评价模型评价了重金属对人体健康造成的风险,同时利用主成分分析法解析了重金属的主要来源.结果表明,玉米籽粒中Pb、Zn、Cd、Cr和Ni的平均含量分别为0.30、23.75、0.21、1.33和1.15 mg ·kg-1;除重金属Zn外,其他4种重金属均超过我国食品卫生标准限值,研究区玉米籽粒中Pb、Cd、Cr和Ni的综合污染指数范围介于4.32~9.07之间,均属于重度污染,Zn的综合污染指数小于1;重金属通过玉米籽粒摄入引起的复合重金属污染对成人和儿童均存在健康风险,且对儿童造成的健康风险高于成人.玉米籽粒中5种重金属可以由2个主成分来反映,第一主成分主要支配Pb、Cd、Cr和Ni的来源,第二主成分支配Zn的来源.玉米籽粒重金属含量与土壤重金属含量之间没有明显相关性. 相似文献