海州湾表层沉积物磷的吸附容量及潜在释放风险

利用磷吸附指数（PSI）、磷吸附饱和度（DPS）和磷释放风险指数（ERI）研究了2016年10月和2017年5月海州湾表层沉积物的磷吸附容量及潜在释放风险.结果显示,2016年秋季PSI变化范围为99.58~199.39[mgP/（100g）]/[μmol/L],DPS变化范围为23.118%~34.289%;2017年夏季PSI变化范围是130.29~198.57[mgP/（100g）]/[μmol/L],DPS变化范围为25.545%~42.135%,两次调查中PSI和DPS均表现出相反的平面分布趋势.PSI和Al_ox、Fe_ox呈显著正相关,说明Fe_ox和Al_ox是影响海州湾表层沉积物吸附磷的主要因素,且Fe_ox占主导作用;DPS与Al_ox和Fe_ox分别表现出了显著负相关性和极显著负相关性,说明Al_ox和Fe_ox含量的增大会降低表层沉积物的磷吸附饱和度.2016年10月磷释放风险指数（ERI）的变化范围为11.59%~34.18%,2017年5月磷释放风险指数（ERI）的变化范围为12.86%~32.34%,从2次调查结果整体来看,海州湾表层沉积物的磷释放风险为中度风险.     

考虑边界条件不确定性的地下水污染风险分析

为分析边界条件不确定性对地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型输出结果的影响,运用Monte Carlo方法对一算例进行阐明,并从污染风险预报方面对模拟结果进行分析.为减少重复调用模拟模型产生的大量计算负荷,将边界条件（第一类边界条件-水头值）作为随机变量,建立地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型的Kriging替代模型,在保证较高精度的同时,实现了Monte Carlo模拟.结果表明：边界条件的不确定性,对地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型预报的结果有很大影响,考虑与未考虑边界条件不确定性得到的研究区污染羽分布差别较大.对地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型的Monte Carlo模拟结果进行统计与分析,可以评估研究区观测井1,2,3污染物浓度预报结果的可靠程度,并且可以预报出研究区观测井1,2,3遭受不同程度污染的风险.     

应用S-T模型对沉积物中PAHs的生态风险分级评价

本文构建S-T模型,运用集对分析理论（set pair analysis）构建基本模型,采用层次分析法并参考毒性当量因子确定各指标权重,应用三角模糊数（triangular fuzzy number）对差异度系数进行改进,基于加拿大沉积物环境质量标准,对沉积物中多环芳烃进行生态风险分级评价.结果表明,该模型考虑到化合物之间的相互作用因素并做模糊处理,对差异度系数进行改进体现沉积物中多环芳烃生态风险等级标准的模糊性,为持久性有机污染物生态风险分级评价提供了一种简便客观有效的方法.     

南昌市冬季大气PM2.5中重金属元素来源分析及健康风险评价

采集2015年南昌市冬季大气PM_(2.5)样品,利用电感耦合等离子体质谱仪(ICP-MS)测定样品中重金属(V、Mn、Cr、Co、Ni、Cu、Zn、Cd、Ba和Pb)的含量,分析重金属的分布特征和来源,并对重金属健康风险进行评价。结果表明:采样期间PM2.5浓度总平均值为(29.74±16.82)μg/m~3,其中省外办最高,武术学校最低;各重金属元素总体平均浓度从高到低次序为:ZnPbCuMnBaNiVCrCdCo。因子分析结果表明:PM_(2.5)中重金属元素的来源包括道路交通尘和冶金化工排放、机动车尾气以及混合源。健康风险评价结果显示:PM_(2.5)中Mn对人体健康存在非致癌风险,其他元素(Cr、Ba、Co、Pb、Cd、Cu、V、Zn、Ni)基本没有非致癌风险;Cr对人体有较明显的致癌风险,Cd、Ni和Co对部分年龄段的人群(尤其是成年人)存在一定的致癌风险。     

西安市文教区表层土壤中PAHs来源及风险分析

文教区土壤环境质量直接影响学生以及职工的身体健康。本研究应用高效液相色谱仪对采集的西安市文教区表层土壤样品中的16种优控多环芳烃(PAHs)进行含量检测,分析其组分特征、来源及健康风险。结果表明,西安市文教区表层土壤中∑PAHs含量为0.290~4.147μg/g,平均值为1.515μg/g,7种致癌多环芳烃的含量为0.079~2.093μg/g,均值为0.593μg/g,土壤PAHs污染较为严重。其中4环的高环PAHs为土壤PAHs污染的主要物质,平均占∑PAHs含量的40.72%。源解析结果表明西安市文教区表层土壤中PAHs主要来源于石油燃烧、煤及生物质等的不完全燃烧。终生癌症风险评价表明西安市文教区表层土壤中PAHs污染对其生活在周围的人群产生的终生致癌风险性较小,但71.4%的样点达到严重污染水平,产生的间接影响应引起足够重视。     

Competitive Retention of Lead and Cadmium on an Agricultural Soil

Lead and cadmium contamination of an agricultural soil has been studied using batch and column experiments. Thermodynamics of theretention phenomena may be represented by a Langmuir isotherm foran aqueous metal concentration up to 100 mg L^-1. First order kinetics with respect to the solid phase yield good predictabilityfor both batch and column experiments. Kinetics and thermodynamics of lead retention predominate over those ofcadmium. As a consequence, lead is preferentially retainedand can even displace sorbed cadmium. In the event of anspill involving both metals, cadmium would move further inthe soil and its aqueous concentration downstream could beeven higher than that of the influent solution, increasingpotential risks. A two-region model has been used to fit all the experimental results. Satisfactory predictions for column experiments are obtained with parameters which are consistent with those obtained for the batch experiments, for which sorption is described by a Langmuir isotherm including competitive retention.     

Ecological Risk Assessment of Abandoned Shrimp Ponds in Southern Thailand

The potential ecological risks associated with contaminants from 15 abandoned shrimp ponds in southern Thailand were assessed at the screening level. Shrimp ponds reported as out of production for more than 2 years were selected as sampling sites. The assessment endpoint was identified as the protection of aquatic life from hazard of multiple agents or stressors in water or sediment from the ponds. The measurement endpoints were amount of toxic phytoplankton species, Yellow Head Viruses, SEMB viruses, oxytetracycline, cadmium, copper, and manganese. Data from field measurements and laboratory analyses obtained primarily from April to June 2003 were used in the risk analysis. The results showed that insignificant amounts of stressors were present, except for the metals. So, only concentration values of the metals were used in the calculation of hazard quotients (HQ) for risk characterization. The highest potential ecological risk characterized by the highest HQ value observed for each metal was 19 for manganese, 4.3 for cadmium, and 1.8 for copper. These findings indicated a need for further ecological risk assessment at a more detailed level to focus on the bioavailability and effects of metals from abandoned shrimp farms, with manganese the highest priority.     

Cadmium and Lead Levels in Fish (Tilapia Nilotica) Tissues as Biological Indicator for Lake Water Pollution

Cadmium and lead were determined in different tissues (muscle,gill, stomach, intestine, liver, vertebral column and scales) of Tilapia nilotica from the High Dam Lake, Aswan (Egypt) to assess the lake water pollution with those toxic metals. Fish samples were chosen from different ages and weights to be analyzed along with samples of the aquatic plant(Najas armeta), sediment and lake water.The results showed that cadmium and lead concentrations were higher in fish scales and vertebral column than in the other parts of the fish. Cadmium and lead levels in High Dam lake water and fish (Tilapia nilotica) were a result of the pollution which uptakes from aquatic plants, sediments andgasoline containing lead that leaks from fishery boats. Tilapia nilotica fish was used as a good bio-assay indicator for the lake pollution with cadmium and lead. The fish musclesin this study were in the safety baseline levels for man consumption.     

Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Network Design for Assessing Human Health Impacts from Exposures to Airborne Contaminants

Existing methods of establishing ambientair quality monitoring networks typically evaluateonly parameters related to ambient concentrations ofthe contaminant(s) of interest such as emissionsource characteristics, atmospheric transport anddispersion, secondary reactions, depositioncharacteristics, and local topography. However,adverse health risks from exposures to airbornecontaminants are a function of the contaminant andthe anatomic and physiologic characteristics of theexposed population. Thus, ambient air qualitymonitoring networks designed for the protection ofpublic health or for epidemiological studiesevaluating adverse health impacts from exposures toambient air contaminants should account for bothcontaminant characteristics and human healthparameters. A methodology has been establishedwhich optimizes ambient air quality monitoringnetworks for assessments of adverse human healthimpacts from exposures to airborne contaminants byincorporating human health risk assessmenttechniques. The use of risk assessment techniquesas the basis for designing ambient air qualitymonitoring networks will help to target limitedfinancial and human resources to evaluate humanhealth risks from exposures to airbornecontaminants.     

Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.