环境评价污染气象观测与分析的几个问题

就实际环评工作中污染气象观测与分析中资料的选取与分析,地面常规气象资料的统计与分析,大气边界层观测与分析等几个问题提出了看法和建议。     

环境砷污染与健康

本文论述了环境砷污染对健康的影响,包括砷中毒、机理、危害及分析方法。     

百口泉地下水电导率与溶解性总固体相关性讨论

由于溶解性总固体的测定较为复杂,平行性、稳定性差,而电导率的测定简便、迅速,重现性、稳定性好,若二者相关关系显著,可通过测定电导率,按一定的比例推算水中溶解性总固体的量。通过对百口泉地下水的溶解性总固体与电导率的相关性的监测、分析,经统计检验,线性关系显著,其比值范围在065～076,均值为07,即百口泉地下水的电导率1μs/cm相当于070mg/L的溶解性总固体。     

揭开武汉东湖蓝藻水华消失之谜

水华（亦称湖靛）是湖泊富营养化最恶劣的表征之一。武汉东湖７０年代至１９８４年间每年夏季出现蓝藻水华,１９８５年起突然消失,至今已有１４年没有重现,原因何在？通过三次设在湖里的围隔试验,证明鲢鳙的大量放养,是水华消失的决定性因素。     

两种定性天气预报模型的对比分析

以南京１９６５～１９９４ 年４ 月平均气温作为预报量, 选取前期５００ ｈ Ｐａ 月平均高度场相关因子, 分别建立了事件概率回归预报模型和神经网络预报模型。通过对比分析发现, 在同等条件下,由于神经网络方法能更好地反映预报量与预报因子间的非线性关系, 并能有效避免采用事件概率回归方法预报建模时, 对预报因子分级造成信息损失的缺点。因此, 其拟合和预报效果明显优于传统的概率回归预报方法     

Water Supply Planning Considering Uncertainties in Future Water Demand and Climate: A Case Study in an Illinois Watershed

Ensuring an adequate, reliable, clean, and affordable water supply for citizens and industries requires informed, long-range water supply planning, which is critically important for water security. A balance between water supply and demand must be considered for a long-term plan. However, water demand projections are often highly uncertain. Climate change could impact the hydrologic processes, and consequently, threaten water supply. Thus, understanding the uncertainties in future water demand and climate is critical for developing a sound water supply plan. In Illinois, regional water supply planning attempts to explore the impacts of future water demand and climate on water supply using scenario analyses and hydrologic modeling. This study is aimed at developing a water supply planning framework that considers both future water demand and climate change impacts. This framework is based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate the watershed hydrology and conduct scenario analyses that consider the uncertainties in both future water demand and climate as well as their impacts on water supply. The framework was applied to water supply planning efforts in the Kankakee River watershed. The Kankakee River watershed model was calibrated and validated to observed streamflow records at four long-term United States Geological Survey streamflow gages. Because of the many model parameters involved, the calibration process was automated and was followed by a manual refinement, resulting in good model performance. Long-range water demand projections were prepared by the Illinois State Water Survey. Six future water demand scenarios were established based on a suite of assumptions. Climate scenarios were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection Phase 5 datasets. Three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, are used in the study. The scenario simulation results demonstrated that climate change appears to have a greater impact on water availability in the study area than water demand. The framework developed in this study can also be used to explore the impacts of uncertainties of water demand and climate on water supply and can be extended to other regions and watersheds.     

Policy conflicts in the siting of natural gas pipelines

ABSTRACT

Researchers often focus on the most intense conflicts, skewing our perception of the diversity and nature of policy conflicts. The paper examines the discourse engaged in the siting of three pipeline projects under construction, each with varying levels of conflict, and one rejected project of high conflict. We analyze over 700 newspaper articles that span the life of each proposed pipeline and supplement the news media data with interviews. Using these data, we compare differences in actor types, frames, and behaviors in natural gas pipeline siting processes characterized by high, medium, and low conflict. Comparing the characteristics of energy siting conflicts at varying intensities helps support corresponding portrayals of how people engage in the policy process. This paper offers theoretical and empirical guidance on understanding policy conflict intensity variation.     

Experimental study on the effect of fly ash content in cemented paste backfill on its anti-sulfate erosion

ABSTRACT

In order to study the effect of fly ash content in cemented paste backfill (CPB) on its anti-sulfate erosion, the apparent phenomenon, strength development, and hydration products change the law of CPB with different fly ash content under long-term soaking of 5% sodium sulfate solution were studied by the macrotest and microanalysis, in addition, the mechanism of CPB anti-sulfate attack was analyzed by combining with a scanning electron microscope (SEM). The results indicated that the effect of sulfate environment on the strength of fly ash cemented paste backfill (FCPB) was mainly determined by the hydration products in the FCPB at different soaking times. In the early soaking stage, the formation of ettringite (AFt) in FCPB could improve its compactness, which was conducive to improving the strength of FCPB. In the late soaking stage, there were ettringite-type erosion damage and gypsum erosion-type damage internal of the FCPB with low content fly ash, resulting in microfracture, cracking of the FCPB, and reducing the strength. CPB with an appropriate content of fly ash could improve the internal structure of the FCPB to achieve the purpose of anti-sulfate erosion.     

流动危险源毒气泄漏事故伤害模型研究

笔者介绍了危险货物道路运输的现状和特点，阐述了进行流动危险源事故后果分析的必要性，提出了流动危险源运动时毒气泄漏事故伤害模型，并利用该模型进行了数值模拟，证明该模型分析流动危险源运动时毒气泄漏事故的后果是可行的。     

Addressing Data Deficiency in Classifying Extinction Risk: a Case Study of a Radiation of Bignoniaceae from Madagascar

Abstract:  Of the roughly 12,000 known plant species in Madagascar, only 3% are found in the IUCN (World Conservation Union) Red List of Threatened Species. We assigned preliminary IUCN categories of threat to the species of a comparatively well-known tribe, Coleeae (Bignoniaceae), which comprises an endemic, species-rich radiation in Madagascar. Because the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria 3.1 discourage the use of the data-deficient category, we developed a novel method for differentiating between range-limited species and poorly sampled species. We used the Missouri Botanical Garden (MBG) gazetteer to determine where other collection efforts had taken place. We drew buffers around each Coleeae locality and determined how many times the surrounding area had been visited since the last sighting of the specimens by intersecting the buffers with all known botanical localities from the MBG gazetteer. We determined that at least 54% of the Coleeae species are threatened with extinction. Assignments of species to this category were often due to predicted future decline within their current area of occupancy and their lack of inclusion within the protected-area network (only 42% of species are known to occur in protected areas). Three species were presumed extinct, and an additional 12 have not been seen in decades. Among the species threatened with extinction, we "rescued" six of them from the data-deficient category by considering both the sample dates and localities of places where they occurred in relation to additional collections that took place in the immediate area. Due to their recent discovery, 15 species remained in the data-deficient category. If Coleeae is representative of the Malagasy flora, or at least of other endemic-radiated plant groups, then species loss in Madagascar may be even more extreme than is realized.