花溪区土地利用变化研究

土地是人类社会赖以生存和发展的最基本自然资源。土地利用格局的好坏深刻地影响并决定着一个地区的发展和经济状况。在地理信息系统(GIS)技术与遥感(RS)平台下,以花溪区1973年、1986年、1993年陆地卫星影像和2002年、2007年CBERS影像数据为基础,从土地利用类型、结构和布局阐述了研究区不同时期的土地利用现状,并在此基础上对其5个年份土地利用的变化过程和分布特征进行分析。结果表明:花溪区30多年来土地利用类型中水田、草地、林地面积呈减少的变化比较明显;建筑、旱地、灌木林等面积呈增加的变化较明显。研究成果对花溪区土地资源的合理利用有一定指导意义,为土地管理部门提供决策支持。     

National policies for biosphere greenhouse gas management: issues and opportunities

Biosphere greenhouse gas (GHG) management consists of preserving and enhancing terrestrial carbon pools and producing biomass as a fossil fuel substitute. The discussion of this topic has focused primarily on carbon-accounting and project-level issues, particularly relating to carbon sequestration as a source of emissions credits under the Kyoto Protocol. While international consensus on these matters is needed, this paper argues that an important domestic policy agenda also deserves attention. National policies for biosphere GHG management are necessary to bring about large-scale changes in land-use, forestry, and agricultural practices and can address some of the technical and policy issues that have proven to be particularly problematic from carbon-accounting and project-level perspectives. These policies should minimize land-use and resource-management conflicts, account for collateral benefits, and ensure institutional compatibility with existing resource-management regimes. Issues relating to project permanence, leakage, and transaction costs should also be addressed. A range of policy instruments should be used and biosphere GHG management should be one component of an integrated approach to environmental and resource management. Countries promoting biosphere GHG management as an important element of their climate change strategies should be developing these domestic policies to complement international negotiations and to demonstrate that carbon sequestration and biomass production can make an effective contribution to the stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations.     

Constructing and justifying risk and accountability after extreme events: public administration and stakeholders’ responses to a wildfire disaster

ABSTRACT

The impacts of extreme weather events, causing severe storms and wildfires, cascade across administrative borders within a country, challenging the steering capacity of governance networks at different political scales. This paper examines how accountability and risk were constructed and negotiated in the aftermath of Sweden’s largest wildfire. It draws on results from an interview study with executives of organizations and landowners involved, and an analysis of government reports about the wildfire’s cause and consequences. Although the fire was human-caused, public administrative bodies paid considerable attention to the local emergency services and their poor handling of the wildfire, caused by lack of knowledge of forest fire behavior. The study confirms many of the challenges associated with governance networks. It finds that issues about who to hold accountable, in what forum and for what issue are not fully addressed, being overwhelmed by demands for better knowledge of forest fire prevention and improved coordination and collaboration. To conclude, the paper calls for a better-informed public administration, forest sector and interrelated networks that take responsibility for their actions or lack thereof.     

Heat as emergency,heat as chronic stress: policy and institutional responses to vulnerability to extreme heat

Increasingly commonplace in cities, extreme heat events introduce multi-stress vulnerability, affecting people’s health and well-being, financial situation, mobility, social relations, and access to basic services. Planning to reduce heat vulnerability has become part of government business and to some extent community-level responses, cutting across a number of sectors including public health, emergency management, social services, critical infrastructure, and housing. This planning is often framed around heat as an emergency, focusing on preventing loss of life and severe health impacts, yet a vulnerability perspective also draws attention to the chronic and persistent impacts of heat. Our research, based on interviews and desktop research in Melbourne, Australia, found tensions between addressing heat as an emergency and heat as a source of chronic stress, with emergency responses taking precedence over responses addressing the chronic dimensions of heat. Each approach results in different but nonetheless related programmatic priorities for reducing vulnerability. In complex institutional settings, improving relations between policy and programme managers, non-government organisations, and vulnerable people themselves would enable the multiple stresses associated with extreme heat to be more effectively addressed. Policy and institutional responses that better appreciate the interconnections between the emergency and chronic aspects of heat would likely reduce vulnerability and contribute to more just approaches to urban sustainability.     

不同季节气象条件对北京城区高黑碳浓度变化的影响

利用2013年至2015年北京城区黑碳气溶胶(下文统称为\"BC\")和PM2.5观测资料,结合地面气象观测资料、ECMWF边界层高度再分析资料和FNL/NCEP不同高度风速再分析资料,讨论了BC质量浓度及其在PM_(2.5)质量浓度中所占比例(下文统称\"黑碳占比\")的季节、月、日变化特征,并通过计算北京城区BC浓度与不同高度风速的相关矢量,分析了气象条件和外来输送对北京城区BC浓度变化的影响.结果发现:研究时段内北京城区BC浓度平均值为(4.77±4.49)μg·m~(-3);黑碳占比为8.23%±5.47%.BC浓度和黑碳占比在春、夏季低,秋、冬季高,其日变化特征在4个季节均为\"白天低夜间高\"的单峰型特征.随着PM_(2.5)浓度的升高,BC浓度增大,黑碳占比减小.当北京地区风向为东北、东北偏东、东南和西南偏西(主风向)时,BC浓度与风速和边界层高度均呈反向变化,即随风速和边界层高度的增大而减小.另外不同季节BC浓度随风速变化的临界值及其变化速率不同.冬季高BC浓度时段,北京城区BC浓度在低层大气的关键影响区分别位于河北南部与山东交界地区以及河北西北部与山西内蒙交界地区;高空关键影响区主要位于北京以西的河北西部、山西北部和内蒙古地区.     

干旱区内陆河流域土地利用程度变化与生态安全评价——以新疆玛纳斯河流域为例

以天山北坡玛纳斯河流域为例,在遥感与GIS支持下揭示了流域1989-2002年间土地利用程度变化状况,并进一步对流域生态安全进行了综合评价,最后分析了土地利用程度变化与生态安全的关系。结果表明：①玛纳斯河流域土地利用程度稳定上升,土地利用总体处于发展时期;②1989-2002年,流域生态安全状况整体有所好转,但局部生态环境出现恶化趋势;③流域土地利用程度综合指数在18~100间的区域生态安全等级有所提高,由1989年主体属于中警状态提高到2002年的预警状态;④不同土地利用程度下流域在较安全和预警状态面积之和有以下顺序：Ⅴ＞Ⅳ＞Ⅰ＞Ⅵ＞Ⅲ＞Ⅱ,表明Ⅴ级土地利用程度区即林草地是流域生态恢复和重建的首选和重要组成部分,而沙地则是生态环境治理的难题和关键。最后,提出了通过提高低利用程度区的土地利用程度来确保生态安全的观点。     

Effects of temperature variation on TSD in turtle (C. picta) populations

We formulate a two-sex model of temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) for a freshwater turtle (C. picta) population. The aim is to understand how environmental temperature variations and nest heat conduction properties affect the long term dynamics of the population. This is a key to understanding how global temperature changes may affect their survival. With stochastic inputs of ambient temperature and solar radiation, the model uses the heat equation to determine the temperature in the egg layer in the nest; in turn, this determines the sex ratio in the egg clutch using a variable degree-day model. Finally, a nonlinear Leslie type, stage-based, two-sex model, is used to determine the long term male and female populations. A two-sex model is required because of different development rates for males and females. The model is flexible enough to enable other researchers to examine the effects of temperature variation variations on other species with TSD, e.g., crocodilians, reptilians, as well as other turtle species. It can be adapted to study effects of nest location, soil type, rain events, different incubation periods, and density effects, for example, the dependence of the mating function on the ratio of males to females and each’s contribution to the sex of hatchlings. Modifications can be easily made to fit a specific life history traits. The model is a beginning step in understanding the long term, high fitness shown by many reptile species with TSD, and it may suggest to experimentalists what data may be relevant to these issues; it can also be useful to wildlife managers in developing strategies for intervention if needed. Among the principal findings are that temperature variability and detailed nest heat conduction properties may buffer projected negative effects on a population.     

太湖流域水污染对太湖水质的影响分析

从太湖地区(苏州、无锡、常州、杭州、嘉兴和湖州)的污染物排放量、水质监测结果，以及工农业发展、人口变化、人民生活水平的提高、东太湖萎缩，底泥中营养物的变化和湖泊生态系统失衡的特点入手，分析了太湖流域水污染现状。结果表明，工业废水排放量高于城镇生活废水排放量；太湖湖体、环湖河流水质与省、市边界断面主要超标项目分别为：总磷、总氮和氨氮；水体水质演变是由工农业迅速发展、人口过度增加、污染防治措施相对滞后，以及太湖水生态系统失衡等原因造成的。     

Testing emissions equivalency metrics against climate policy goals

The climate impacts of energy technologies are frequently assessed using equivalency metrics, which convert emissions of multiple greenhouse gases to a common scale. Numerous metrics have been proposed that incorporate, in different ways, information about the time-dependent impacts of gases. However, more focus has been placed on proposing metrics than on testing their performance in real-world use cases. Here we present a testing approach that simulates how metrics would affect the selection of energy technology portfolios that comply with a CO₂-equivalent emissions cap. Unintended radiative forcing outcomes can occur, emphasizing the need to test metrics in a practical context. We demonstrate the approach for policies designed to limit radiative forcing and discuss extensions to limits on temperature or economic impacts. Metric performance is evaluated by (i) how much actual radiative forcing overshoots the intended stabilization level and (ii) the level of energy consumption permitted. We use this testing approach to study a variety of metrics based on an estimated radiative forcing stabilization time under two climate policy goals. We find that these goal-inspired metrics, if chosen carefully, can exhibit performance improvements over the standard global warming potential (GWP) while maintaining its transparency and ease-of-use. These alternative metrics can significantly reduce the overshoot in radiative forcing observed with the GWP, at a small cost in energy consumption. Moreover, simple metrics can exhibit similar performance improvements to more complex ones.     

凤阳山森林生态系统碳交换及其物候特征

凤阳山位于浙江省龙泉市南部,为亚热带典型森林生态系统保护区,受海洋性气候和季风的影响,是研究森林生态系统碳预算及其物候特征的理想之地。采用位于浙江凤阳山的涡动相关通量观测系统（EC）观测的2017年（除去9月）CO₂通量数据、气象数据并结合物候模型来分析本地尺度亚热带森林生态系统总初级生产力（GPP）、生态系统呼吸（Re）动态特征、不同时间尺度下的影响因子及其物候特征,结果表明：该生态系统全年扮演着碳汇的角色,净生态系统碳交换量（NEE）（除去9月）为?89 g?m^?2?a^?1（以碳计）,GPP总量为1377.75 g?m^?2?a^?1,Re总量为1288 g?m^?2?a^?1,GPP和Re的日变化和季节变化均呈单峰型,先增加后降低。GPP在不同的物候时期均为倒“U”型的变化趋势,而Re在夜间的生态系统呼吸略高于白天,且在日夜交替时刻会出现陡降现象。整个生态系统在174 d GPP增长率达到峰值0.25 μmol?m^?2?s^?1,达到最大恢复率;202 d的GPP增长率为0 μmol?m^?2?s^?1;228 d的GPP增长率最低,为?0.21 μmol?m^?2?s^?1,达到最大衰退率。不论是日尺度还是月尺度上,GPP和Re变化的主要驱动因素为空气温度,日尺度上Re较GPP对环境因子的变化更加敏感;反之,在月尺度上GPP对环境因子变化的响应比Re更加敏感。总体而言,凤阳山森林生态系统全年表现为碳汇,能够调节当地的二氧化碳浓度;生长季森林生态系统生长旺盛,稳定阶段的GPP与Re达到峰值;在不同的时间跨度上生态系统对环境因子的响应存在差异。