地震作用下结构失稳诱发的塌陷和地裂缝机理分析

分析了地震诱发的地表塌陷和地裂缝机制。通过地裂缝微观机理分析研究发现:(1)地震造成了大量的地裂缝和塌陷,这些破坏的出现与地震发生时造成的瞬间应力变化和结构破坏密切相关;(2)利用结构突变失稳理论来研究岩土体内部结构是可行的。当应力状态满足孔隙结构失稳判别式时,结构元的变形状态将产生一个“跳跃”;(3)地震情况下岩土体颗粒之间有效接触力的增加,使得结构的变形能增大;同时导致颗粒间连接刚度的降低,导致结构的失稳,这些变化又是在瞬间发生和完成的,这就造成了在地震发生时总是伴随着大量的裂缝和塌陷的出现。     

INCOME DISTRIBUTION IMPACTS OF A WATER DEVELOPMENT PROJECT - BOISE PROJECT,IDAHO, 1950–19701

ABSTRACT: Public investments in water resource development projects are continually under scrutiny in terms of economic, environmental, and social impacts. Results of an analysis of a water development project that supplies irrigation water in Idaho are discussed in terms of the impact on income distribution and income growth 44 to 64 years after the project was initiated. Gini ratios for the rural farm population of these counties were consistently lower than they were for the United States as a whole and for the state of Idaho. In addition, income distributions tended to become more equitable over time in the water project counties. Rural farm population income growth rates were found to be similar to those for the nation as a whole. Some of the reasons for these results may be related to the tendency for income distribution to become more equitable as income increases, and the fact that average farm size is relatively small.     

SEISMIC REFRACTION ANALYSIS OF WATERSHED MANTLE RELATED TO SOIL,GEOLOGY AND HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: An extensive hammer seismic refraction survey was carried out in three contiguous watersheds (217, 89, and 190 acres) on a laccolith near Sturgis, South Dakota to test its utility in rugged mountain terrain. Isopachs (lines connecting points of equal mantle thickness), area-elevation curves (hypsometry), and structure contours were used together with drill cores, petrography, hydrographs, and soil information to interpret the nature and role of porous mantle in the waterflow behavior of the watersheds. Refraction profiles produced only one geologically meaningful seismic contrast within the loccolith. Drill cores indicated a shallow stony profile on a sheeted horizon terminating on isotropic crystalline rock impervious except for tight joints. Means of refraction and core interpretations were not statistically different. Apparent seismic discontinuities deeper within the bedrock lacked geological identity. Storm hydrographs and water yields are better related to soil type differences and porous mantle distribution than to average porous mantle depth. On the other hand, slope of flow-duration curves correlate with average porous mantle depth. Porous mantle isopachs also indicate that measured flow from each basin is total area flow. Thus, porous mantle isopachs and hypsometry, and soil type delineation are complimentary in our interpretation of watershed behavior.     

Use of Approximate Inference in an Index of Completeness of Biological Inventories

Abstract:  To assess the completeness of a floristic or faunal inventory, one may use the ratio of the observed number of species to the "true number" of species ( C ). If the inventory is complete , C = 1. The estimate of the true number can be obtained from accumulation curves, nonparametric methods, or other techniques. We devised a simple method for computing confidence intervals (CI) for C and for evaluating the null hypothesis that the inventory is complete. The method is based on the assumptions that an estimate of the variance of the true number of species is known and that the distribution of the estimator of the true number of species is approximately normal. We applied our method to bird inventories in the Balsas Basin of Mexico. The completeness index for subtransects were lower (84.0, 85.4, and 89.9%) than for the whole transect (91.6%) (all significantly different from 100%). Thus, these particular inventories were incomplete at 2 spatial resolutions. Our method of estimating CI for C can be used to estimate species richness obtained from databases of different sites or to test the null hypothesis that an inventory derived from a database is complete.     

The relationship between diversity profiles,evenness and species richness based on partial ordering

Problems with the notion of evenness, such as ambiguity, proliferation of indices, choice of indices, etc. can be overcome by a more fundamental, mathematical approach. We show that the Lorenz curve is an adequate representation of evenness. The corresponding Lorenz order induces a partial order in the set of equivalent abundance vectors. Also diversity can adequately be studied through a partial order and represented by a curve derived from the classical Lorenz curve. This curve is known as the intrinsic diversity profile (or k-dominance curve) and was introduced by Patil and Taillie (1979) and Lambshead et al. (1981).     

Projecting Cumulative Benefits of Multiple River Restoration Projects: An Example from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River System in California

Despite increasingly large investments, the potential ecological effects of river restoration programs are still small compared to the degree of human alterations to physical and ecological function. Thus, it is rarely possible to “restore” pre-disturbance conditions; rather restoration programs (even large, well-funded ones) will nearly always involve multiple small projects, each of which can make some modest change to selected ecosystem processes and habitats. At present, such projects are typically selected based on their attributes as individual projects (e.g., consistency with programmatic goals of the funders, scientific soundness, and acceptance by local communities), and ease of implementation. Projects are rarely prioritized (at least explicitly) based on how they will cumulatively affect ecosystem function over coming decades. Such projections require an understanding of the form of the restoration response curve, or at least that we assume some plausible relations and estimate cumulative effects based thereon. Drawing on our experience with the CALFED Bay-Delta Ecosystem Restoration Program in California, we consider potential cumulative system-wide benefits of a restoration activity extensively implemented in the region: isolating/filling abandoned floodplain gravel pits captured by rivers to reduce predation of outmigrating juvenile salmon by exotic warmwater species inhabiting the pits. We present a simple spreadsheet model to show how different assumptions about gravel pit bathymetry and predator behavior would affect the cumulative benefits of multiple pit-filling and isolation projects, and how these insights could help managers prioritize which pits to fill.     

Transport of Sr2+ and SrEDTA2- in partially-saturated and heterogeneous sediments

Strontium-90 has migrated deep into the unsaturated subsurface beneath leaking storage tanks in the Waste Management Areas (WMA) at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Reservation. Faster than expected transport of contaminants in the vadose zone is typically attributed to either physical hydrologic processes such as development of preferential flow pathways, or to geochemical processes such as the formation of stable, anionic complexes with organic chelates, e.g., ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA). The goal of this paper is to determine whether hydrological processes in the Hanford sediments can influence the geochemistry of the system and hence control transport of Sr(2+) and SrEDTA(2-). The study used batch isotherms, saturated packed column experiments, and an unsaturated transport experiment in an undisturbed core. Isotherms and repacked column experiments suggested that the SrEDTA(2-) complex was unstable in the presence of Hanford sediments, resulting in dissociation and transport of Sr(2+) as a divalent cation. A decrease in sorption with increasing solid:solution ratio for Sr(2+) and SrEDTA(2-) suggested mineral dissolution resulted in competition for sorption sites and the formation of stable aqueous complexes. This was confirmed by detection of MgEDTA(2-), MnEDTA(2-), PbEDTA(2-), and unidentified Sr and Ca complexes. Displacement of Sr(2+) through a partially-saturated undisturbed core resulted in less retardation and more irreversible sorption than was observed in the saturated repacked columns, and model results suggested a significant reservoir (49%) of immobile water was present during transport through the heterogeneous layered sediments. The undisturbed core was subsequently disassembled along distinct bedding planes and subjected to sequential extractions. Strontium was unequally distributed between carbonates (49%), ion exchange sites (37%), and the oxide (14%) fraction. An inverse relationship between mass wetness and Sr suggested that sandy sediments of low water content constituted the immobile flow regime. Our results suggested that the sequestration of Sr(2+) in partially-saturated, heterogeneous sediments was most likely due to the formation of immobile water in drier regions having low hydraulic conductivities.     

带压开采陷落柱突水影响因素数值模拟

为研究承压水压与煤层陷落柱位置这两种因素对陷落柱突水的影响,在分析固流耦合数学模型的基础上,利用数值模拟软件FLAC3D,以双柳矿地质条件为背景,分别对3 MPa和5 MPa承压水压下开采上、下两组煤4种情况进行模拟,分析陷落柱及其周边围岩的渗流-塑性破坏耦合场、应力场和位移场的变化.结果表明:随着工作面推进至接近陷落柱,工作面前方集中应力场与柱体周边应力场发生耦合,并出现应力集中,当水压为5 MPa开采上组煤时应力集中系数最大,最容易形成突水危险区域;当上组煤工作面距离陷落柱为30 m时,陷落柱渗流场与集中应力场开始连通,在开采下组煤时这一距离比上组煤扩大15 ～ 20 m;煤层底板随工作面推进发生压缩-膨胀周期变化,引起拉伸、剪切破坏.     

三维点云基础上排土场垮塌影响范围研究

高台阶排土场下游常分布有居民区、厂房等,一旦垮塌,后果严重,因此完善的防治与应急准备工作十分关键,而排土场垮塌影响范围的预测是这些工作的重要前提依据。为提升高台阶排土场垮塌影响范围的预测准确性,需要获取准确的地形边界基础数据。通过利用三维激光扫描仪对新建排土场及其下游地形精细扫描,对获取的三维点云数据去噪、拼接、建模等处理,生成精度更高的数字高程模型与三维实体模型。在此基础上,结合新建高台阶排土场地质勘查与设计资料,建立颗粒离散元数值模型,利用PFC3D计算高台阶排土场垮塌影响范围,并与经验公式法计算结果对比分析,结果表明排土场颗粒离散元数值模型精度符合要求,可快速、准确地计算影响范围,从而为相关部门提供科学决策依据。     

岩溶塌陷倾向性等级的KPCA-SVM预测模型

为了快速、有效地预测岩溶塌陷倾向性等级,在统计分析大量观测实例的基础上,选取岩性系数、岩体结构系数、地下水系数、覆盖层系数、地形地貌系数和环境条件系数作为特征指标。利用核主成分分析(KPCA)方法在高维空间提取岩溶塌陷影响因子的主成分,将获取的主成分作为支持向量机(SVM)的特征向量,建立基于KPCA的岩溶塌陷倾向性等级的SVM预测模型。将12组观测数据作为学习样本对模型进行训练。采用回代估计法进行回检,误判率为0。利用训练好的模型对2组待判样本进行预测。结果表明:经KPCA后指标个数减少,相关性降低,SVM运算的复杂度降低。用该模型所得预测结果的准确率为100%。