Probabilistic Flood Inundation Forecasting Using Rating Curve Libraries

One approach for performing uncertainty assessment in flood inundation modeling is to use an ensemble of models with different conceptualizations, parameters, and initial and boundary conditions that capture the factors contributing to uncertainty. However, the high computational expense of many hydraulic models renders their use impractical for ensemble forecasting. To address this challenge, we developed a rating curve library method for flood inundation forecasting. This method involves pre‐running a hydraulic model using multiple inflows and extracting rating curves, which prescribe a relation between streamflow and stage at various cross sections along a river reach. For a given streamflow, flood stage at each cross section is interpolated from the pre‐computed rating curve library to delineate flood inundation depths and extents at a lower computational cost. In this article, we describe the workflow for our rating curve library method and the Rating Curve based Automatic Flood Forecasting (RCAFF) software that automates this workflow. We also investigate the feasibility of using this method to transform ensemble streamflow forecasts into local, probabilistic flood inundation delineations for the Onion and Shoal Creeks in Austin, Texas. While our results show water surface elevations from RCAFF are comparable to those from the hydraulic models, the ensemble streamflow forecasts used as inputs to RCAFF are the largest source of uncertainty in predicting observed floods.     

基于事故机理和管理因素的地铁坍塌事故分析——以杭州地铁坍塌事故为实证

从技术角度分析地铁坍塌事故发生的机理,以安全事故致因层次为基础,将管理因素分为4部分,即人员因素、环境因素、材料因素和设备因素;进一步分析地铁坍塌事故发生的原因,构建地铁坍塌事故致因的鱼刺图;实证分析杭州地铁坍塌事故的致因,并构建杭州地铁坍塌事故致因的鱼刺图;在实证分析基础上,从地铁施工前与地铁施工时两时间段,针对人员因素、环境因素、材料因素和设备因素4方面管理因素,提出地铁坍塌事故的防范措施。以事故机理研究为基础,以管理因素研究为核心是研究地铁坍塌事故的必由之路,将对地铁工程的安全管理有一定的指导意义。     

Pesticide dissipation curves in peach,pear and tomato crops in Uruguay*

Dissipation curves of azoxystrobin and of the neonicotinoids acetamiprid and thiacloprid in peach; azinphos-methyl and carbaryl in pear and azoxystrobin, chlorfenapyr and chlorpyrifos in high-tunnel tomato crops were studied in the Southern region of Uruguay. An analytical methodology based on solid phase extraction (SPE) and detection by High Performance Liquid Chromatography with Diode Array Detector (HPLC/DAD) was used for acetamiprid and thiacloprid. Coupled SPE and detection by Gas Chromatography with Mass Selective Detector (GC/MSD) was used for the detection of azinphos-methyl, azoxystrobin, carbaryl, chlorfenapyr and chlorpyrifos residues. Curves were modeled mathematically with Solver program of Microsoft Excel®. The best fit for acetamiprid and thiacloprid in peach was achieved with the exponential model (r²=0.961 and 0.944, respectively). In the case of peach fruits there is not a Maximum Residue Limit (MRL) for acetamiprid in the Codex Alimentarius, while 0.5 mg/kg is the value rated for thiacloprid. The MRLs accepted by the European Union (EU) are 0.1 mg/kg for acetamiprid and 0.3 mg/kg for thiacloprid. According to the curves determined in these experiments, thiacloprid residues 10 to 12 days after application (daa) were below the MRLs established by both sources. In the case of acetamiprid, 25 daa would be required, according to the exponential mathematical model, to get residues levels below the MRL values established by the EU. For azinphos methyl in pear, the residues detected were mathematically fitted to an exponential model (r²=0.999). According to it, residue levels under the MRL established by the EU (0.05 mg/kg) are gotten in our conditions in 20 daa. In plastic tunnel tomato chlorfenapyr residues were not detected from 16 daa, having the dissipation curve an exponential trend. In the same condition, there was not a decay of the azoxystrobin concentration during a 24-day trial, being it around 0.40 ± 0.05 mg/kg.     

基于双指标多等级的土壤重金属生态风险评价

采用土壤中重金属的全量和有效态双重指标,建立基于多等级综合评估的土壤中重金属生态风险评价模型,将联合概率曲线法引入土壤评价模型,分析重金属暴露浓度与毒性数据的概率分布,考察重金属对土壤生物的毒害程度,从而确定土壤中重金属对于生态系统的风险。建立从简单到复杂的多等级综合评价方法,表征重金属的污染等级、浓度效应、多种重金属污染物的协同效应、不同重金属的毒性效应和土壤对不同重金属污染物的敏感性。选择典型地区采集有代表性的土壤样品,测定不同重金属的总量和有效态,验证评价模型的实用性和评价分级的合理性。旨在解决土壤重金属风险评价的方法学问题,为土壤环境质量管理提供支持。     

重大基坑坍塌事故虚拟仿真系统研究

为预防基坑坍塌事故发生、进行重大事故警示教育,以杭州地铁湘湖站北2基坑坍塌事故为素材,研究构建重大基坑坍塌事故虚拟仿真培训系统。对案例事故涉及的设计、施工、环境三大因素的技术问题进行总结,研究了事故链各致险因素及对推动事故发生所起作用,完成仿真系统平台设计和开发工作。系统应用多种制作技术创建工程场景模型,展示深基坑工程复杂的施工工序和空间关系,再现基坑坍塌事故发生发展过程和贴近实际的灾难场景。研究结果表明:仿真系统成果可丰富地下工程教学、施工现场安全教育和安全监察培训的内容和形式。     

Projecting Cumulative Benefits of Multiple River Restoration Projects: An Example from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River System in California

Despite increasingly large investments, the potential ecological effects of river restoration programs are still small compared to the degree of human alterations to physical and ecological function. Thus, it is rarely possible to “restore” pre-disturbance conditions; rather restoration programs (even large, well-funded ones) will nearly always involve multiple small projects, each of which can make some modest change to selected ecosystem processes and habitats. At present, such projects are typically selected based on their attributes as individual projects (e.g., consistency with programmatic goals of the funders, scientific soundness, and acceptance by local communities), and ease of implementation. Projects are rarely prioritized (at least explicitly) based on how they will cumulatively affect ecosystem function over coming decades. Such projections require an understanding of the form of the restoration response curve, or at least that we assume some plausible relations and estimate cumulative effects based thereon. Drawing on our experience with the CALFED Bay-Delta Ecosystem Restoration Program in California, we consider potential cumulative system-wide benefits of a restoration activity extensively implemented in the region: isolating/filling abandoned floodplain gravel pits captured by rivers to reduce predation of outmigrating juvenile salmon by exotic warmwater species inhabiting the pits. We present a simple spreadsheet model to show how different assumptions about gravel pit bathymetry and predator behavior would affect the cumulative benefits of multiple pit-filling and isolation projects, and how these insights could help managers prioritize which pits to fill.     

突变级数法在采空区塌陷预测中的应用

基于突变级数理论,分析影响采空区稳定性的因素(包括采空区体积率、距地表的垂深、地质构造复杂程度、煤层倾角、覆盖层厚度、覆盖层类型等),研究采空区塌陷的预测方法.对各影响因素进行排序并确定各因素指标体系,得到各样本的突变级数,从而对采空区稳定性进行预测.实例验证表明,突变级数法的判断结果符合实际,与神经网络分级法的判断结果一致.可见,基于突变级数理论的采空区塌陷预测方法具有科学性和有效性.     

Transport of Sr2+ and SrEDTA2- in partially-saturated and heterogeneous sediments

Strontium-90 has migrated deep into the unsaturated subsurface beneath leaking storage tanks in the Waste Management Areas (WMA) at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Reservation. Faster than expected transport of contaminants in the vadose zone is typically attributed to either physical hydrologic processes such as development of preferential flow pathways, or to geochemical processes such as the formation of stable, anionic complexes with organic chelates, e.g., ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA). The goal of this paper is to determine whether hydrological processes in the Hanford sediments can influence the geochemistry of the system and hence control transport of Sr(2+) and SrEDTA(2-). The study used batch isotherms, saturated packed column experiments, and an unsaturated transport experiment in an undisturbed core. Isotherms and repacked column experiments suggested that the SrEDTA(2-) complex was unstable in the presence of Hanford sediments, resulting in dissociation and transport of Sr(2+) as a divalent cation. A decrease in sorption with increasing solid:solution ratio for Sr(2+) and SrEDTA(2-) suggested mineral dissolution resulted in competition for sorption sites and the formation of stable aqueous complexes. This was confirmed by detection of MgEDTA(2-), MnEDTA(2-), PbEDTA(2-), and unidentified Sr and Ca complexes. Displacement of Sr(2+) through a partially-saturated undisturbed core resulted in less retardation and more irreversible sorption than was observed in the saturated repacked columns, and model results suggested a significant reservoir (49%) of immobile water was present during transport through the heterogeneous layered sediments. The undisturbed core was subsequently disassembled along distinct bedding planes and subjected to sequential extractions. Strontium was unequally distributed between carbonates (49%), ion exchange sites (37%), and the oxide (14%) fraction. An inverse relationship between mass wetness and Sr suggested that sandy sediments of low water content constituted the immobile flow regime. Our results suggested that the sequestration of Sr(2+) in partially-saturated, heterogeneous sediments was most likely due to the formation of immobile water in drier regions having low hydraulic conductivities.     

与地震危险性分析结果相一致的震害预测方法

本文提出了一种基于地震危险性分析结果的震害预测方法,其震害预测结果与地震危险性分析结果相一致。并以房屋倒塌及人员死亡两个单项震害为例,说明如何把地震危险性分析结果与震害预测相结合。     

DEVELOPMENT AND TESTING OF A SNOWMELT-RUNOFF FORECASTING TECHNIQUE1

ABSTRACT: The snowmelt-runoff model (SRM) was used to produce accurate simulations of streamfiow during the snowmelt period (April-September) for ten years on the Rio Grande Basin (3419 km²) near Del Norte, Colorado, U.S.A. In order to use SRM in the forecast situation, it was necessary to develop a family of snow cover depletion curves for each elevation zone based on accumulated snow water equivalent on April 1. Selection of an appropriate curve for a particular year from snow course measurements allows input of the daily snow cover extent to SRM for forecast purposes. Data from three years (1980, 1981, and 1985) were used as a quasi-forecast test of the procedure. In these years forecasted snow cover extent data were input to SRM, but observed temperature and precipitation data were used. The resulting six-month hydrographs were very similar to the hydrographs in the ten simulation years previously tested based on comparisons of performance evaluation criteria. Based on this result, the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) requested SRM forecasts for 1987 on the Rio Grande. Using the same procedure but with SCS estimated temperature and precipi-tation data, SRM produced a forecast hydrograph that had a r²= 0.82 and difference in seasonal volume of 4.4 percent. To approximate actual operational conditions, SRM computed daily flows were updated every seven days with measured flows. The resulting forecast hydrograph had a R²= 0.90 and a difference in volume of 3.5 percent. The method developed needs to be refined and tested on additional years and basins, but the approach appears to be applicable to operational runoff forecasting using remote sensing data.