基于STAMP模型的丰城坍塌事故原因分析

为了系统地分析建筑施工事故原因、有效预防同类事故,运用STAMP模型从控制角度详细分析了一起特别重大坍塌事故,分别从物理过程及环境因素、基层操作原因以及管理层原因3方面分析了导致事故的控制缺陷,并且根据分析结果,提出事故控制措施及建议。结果表明:STAMP模型不仅可以分析各个层级的原因,还可以找出层级之间以及层级内不同组织之间的交互影响原因;建设方、施工方、监理方以及承包方对项目管理内容交叉与重叠,且沟通与协调缺失是导致错误决策和不恰当控制动作产生的主要因素;基层不安全控制动作直接导致事故发生,但取决于管理因素,管理层的原因是预防同类事故的重点。     

安全与危险纠缠理论创建及其研究

针对安全概念不统一,安全科学与技术发展相对滞后,重特大安全事故频发等问题,通过借鉴量子纠缠理论,提出了安全与危险纠缠理论学说。建立了安全与危险纠缠理论模型,阐述了其纠缠机制,明确了一个系统中的安全与危险在不同时段内存在的方式和状态:通常人们所认知的安全或危险均是系统在过去时段内以“一显一隐”的方式塌缩成确定的状态,而在现在与未来时段,它们分别是以“显性”、“隐性”的方式纠缠为不确定的状态;若该系统的“安全与危险纠缠”状态向安全方向塌缩时,系统则表现为安全,若向危险转化时,则系统表现为事故。同时,分析了“安全与危险纠缠”理论建立的对安全科学及安全生产实际意义与理论价值,及其未来展望和存在问题。     

Role of Crab Herbivory in Die-Off of New England Salt Marshes

Abstract:  Die-offs of cordgrass are pervasive throughout western Atlantic salt marshes, yet understanding of the mechanisms precipitating these events is limited. We tested whether herbivory by the native crab , Sesarma reticulatum , is generating die-offs of cordgrass that are currently occurring on Cape Cod, Massachusetts (U.S.A.), by manipulating crab access to cordgrass transplanted into die-off areas and healthy vegetation. We surveyed 12 Cape Cod marshes to investigate whether the extent of cordgrass die-off on creek banks, where die-offs are concentrated, was related to local Sesarma grazing intensity and crab density. We then used archived aerial images to examine whether creek bank die-off areas have expanded over the past 2 decades and tested the hypothesis that release from predation, leading to elevated Sesarma densities, is triggering cordgrass die-offs by tethering crabs where die-offs are pervasive and where die-offs have not yet been reported. Intensity of crab grazing on transplanted cordgrass was an order of magnitude higher in die-off areas than in adjacent vegetation. Surveys revealed that Sesarma herbivory has denuded nearly half the creek banks in Cape Cod marshes, and differences in crab-grazing intensity among marshes explained >80% of variation in the extent of the die-offs. Moreover, the rate of die-off expansion and area of marsh affected have more than doubled since 2000. Crab-tethering experiments suggest that release from predation has triggered elevated crab densities that are driving these die-offs, indicating that disruption of predator–prey interactions may be generating the collapse of marsh ecosystems previously thought to be exclusively under bottom-up control .     

煤层底板隐伏陷落柱突水预测及采前注浆加固评价

华北型煤矿开采受底板岩溶强含水层威胁，通过对淮南张集矿1613A工作面底板隐伏岩溶陷落柱突水危险性分析，采用FLAC3D方法模拟采动条件下岩溶陷落柱活化过程。模拟结果显示:陷落柱上方的煤层底板岩体发生塑性变形，导致陷落柱附近岩体失稳，陷落柱筒壁产生局部剪切破坏，剪切破坏位置易导致奥灰强含水层发生陷落柱突水。采前采用注浆方法改造岩溶陷落柱，对改造后的陷落柱进行数值模拟分析，其内部注浆岩体对陷落柱筒壁具有良好的支撑作用，抑制了筒壁位置剪切破坏的发生，使有效隔水层厚度增大，降低了陷落柱突水的危险性。     

火灾引发超高层建筑非连续倒塌模拟研究

为了解超高层建筑发生火灾后变形特征及失稳后的非连续坍塌过程,掌握引起变形和坍塌的原因,将三维颗粒流软件(PFC3D)作为模拟平台,设置核心筒-框架结构的超高层建筑火灾区域,并模拟坍塌过程。在考虑钢筋和混凝土共同作用结果的基础上,提出火灾区域中构件属性设置方法及模拟步骤。分析得到造成建筑结构摆动的3种原因,一是火区位置不同导致上部结构对火区的压力不同,二是火区位置不同导致结构受到的约束不同,三是受热膨胀性使构件产生不同程度变形。结果表明:燃烧温度为500℃,3 h后建筑发生摆动,表现出对火区位置和燃烧时间敏感的特征。1 000℃下1 h内,建筑物首先发生破坏的是梁构件,然后是承重柱。即建筑一旦进入结构破坏阶段,坍塌将是迅速且不可逆的。     

中国建筑火灾引起坍塌事故的统计与分析

为了研究火灾引起的建筑结构坍塌的机理,便于已有建筑的抗火防护和新建建筑的抗火设计,通过查询文献资料和新闻媒体报道,对我国建筑火灾坍塌事例进行了调查,对火灾坍塌建筑物的结构形式、层数和使用功能等方面进行了统计分析,列出了部分我国火灾史上1960-2005年所发生的火灾坍塌事例.调查结果显示,钢结构、特别是工业厂房钢屋架在火灾下较其他形式的建筑易发生坍塌;4～8层的民用建筑发生火灾坍塌的比例较高;工业厂房,仓库和商业建筑发生火灾坍塌的比例较高;民用建筑多发生局部坍塌;发生坍塌的建筑一般存在设计和施工不规范以及防火设施不合格等情况.     

当今采动地层塌陷灾害研究与控制途径

作者论述了采矿引起地层塌陷灾害的严重性，探讨了采动地层塌陷的影响因素，并以此提出当今地层塌陷研究途径和地层塌陷灾害控制技术。     

A PROPOSED METHOD OF EVALUATING FLOOD DAMAGES TO HISTORIC HOMES - AN EXTERNALITY APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: Traditional procedures for evaluating flood damages to residential dwellings do not reflect intrinsic values when applied to historic homes. Such structures are worth more than that determined by using depth-damage curves provided by insurance companies who assess damage values based upon current labor and material costs. The evaluation of the worth of a historic home and subsequent damages due to inundation can be regarded as a problem of externalities. An assessment technique reflecting historic amenities or what has been termed replication cost is proposed in this paper. Replication costs would have widespread use not only in solving flood dammage problems, but also in any study where historic entities are subject to damages from catastrophies such as hurricanes, soil and beach erosion, and increasing urbanization. If adopted as a technique, it would enhance and preserve the ever-decreasing enclaves of historic homes and neighborhoods.     

楼房火灾的安全灭火时限分析与施救对策

在楼房建筑物火灾灭火时 ,常由于火燃造成建筑材料强度失效导致整体坍塌 ,给施救工作带来很大的威胁。强调了在灭火过程的始终 ,应不断进行高温状态下建筑材料强度的失效判定 ,评估出安全的灭火时限和调整施救对策 ,有利于从根本上预防楼房坍塌意外事故的发生。定义了火灾高温状态下建筑材料危险应力点上的可靠度 ,提出依据火灾现场因素和数据 ,用数值模拟方法分析建筑材料强度失效随时间的变化过程 ,确定安全的灭火时限。给出了以火灾施救为主线的并适时考虑构件强度分析和安全时限判定交叉平行作业的多阶段施救对策框架 ,建立了楼房火灾施救安全支持系统结构。     

黄河中游河龙地区地质灾害及其治理策略

在前人研究成果与实地调查研究的基础上，对黄河中游河口镇-龙门口地区水土流失、土地沙漠化、崩塌、滑坡、泥石流及地面塌陷等地质灾害类型、特征、灾情、发展趋势进行了剖析，并根据环境现状，提出了治理灾害策略．