水利旅游吸引力评价模型与实证研究

水利旅游是水利经济的新兴增长点，吸引力评价是旅游开发的基础性研究。借鉴引力理论，构建了由25个指标组成的水利旅游吸引力评价指标体系，运用AHP—PCA—Borda主客观组合评价法，对我国水利旅游吸引力进行了实证评价。结果表明，水利旅游吸引力地区不平衡，江苏、广东、山东、湖北、河南、浙江、湖南、北京和江西等省水利旅游吸引力较强，西部省份和处于我国版图中轴线附近的省份水利旅游吸引力较弱。     

Baseline soil levels of PCDD/Fs established prior to the construction of municipal solid waste incinerators in China

In order to determine the baseline contamination by polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) in different areas in China, prior to the construction of municipal solid waste incinerators (MSWIs), a total of 32 representative soil samples was collected near 16 incinerators and analyzed for their PCDD/F concentrations. The PCDD/F baseline concentrations in the soil samples ranged from 0.32 to 11.4 ng I-TEQ kg⁻¹ (dry matter), with average and median value of 2.73 and 2.24 ng I-TEQ kg⁻¹ (dry matter), respectively, and a span between maximum and minimum recorded value of 36. The PCDD homologues predominated in 26 out of 32 soil samples, with the ratio (PCDDs)/(PCDFs) ranging from 1.1 to 164; however in the other 6 samples, PCDF homologues were larger, with the same ratio varying from 0.04 to 0.8. Principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) were used to examine PCDD/F amount and profile in these soil samples, and their possible associations with known emission sources: in this process 6 really distinct isomer fingerprints were identified. Background PCDD/F levels and profiles were comparable to those found in soils from China and other countries and indicate a rather low baseline PCDD/F contamination of soils. The present data provide the tools for future assessment of a possible impact of these MSWIs.     

Heavy metals and their source identification in particulate matter (PM2.5) in Isfahan City, Iran

The presence of heavy metals(HMs) in particulate matters(PMs) particularly fine particles such as PM_(2.5) poses potential risk to the health of human being. The purpose of this study was to analyze the contents of HMs in PM_(2.5) in the atmospheric monitoring stations in Isfahan city,Iran, in different seasons between March 2014 and March 2015 and their source identification using principle component analysis(PCA). The samples of PM_(2.5) were taken using a high volume sampler in 7 monitoring stations located throughout the city and industrial zones since March 2014 to March 2015. The HMs content of the samples was measured using ICP-MS.The results showed that the concentrations of As, Cd and Ni were in a range of 23–36, 1–12,and 5–76 ng/m~3 at all the stations which exceeded the US-EPA standards. Furthermore,the concentrations of Cr and Cu reached to 153 and 167 ng/m~3 in some stations which were also higher than the standard levels. Depending on the potential sources of HMs, their concentration in PM_(2.5) through the various seasons was different. PCA illustrated that the different potential sources of HMs in the atmosphere, showing that the most important sources of HMs originated from fossil fuel combustion, abrasion of vehicle tires, industrial activities(e.g., iron and steel industries) and dust storms. Management and control of air pollution of industrial plants and vehicles are suggested for decreasing the risk of the HMs in the region.     

Principal component analysis for soil contamination with organochlorine compounds

In order to investigate the distribution pattern of individual organochlorine compounds in soil samples collected from the sites (Canary Island – Spain, China, Germany, India, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Swiss, UK) affected by industrial activities to the more remote areas, principal component analysis was performed on the data taken from literature. Loading plots pointed out the strong correlation among the variables. Score plots revealed similar PCB- and OCP-soil patterns for majority of the investigated sites. Nevertheless, the temporal differences of PCB-soil loads have been identified: the late 1990s and early 2000s concentrations are similar to those of the early 1940s, and they are below the levels existed in 1980. The most pronounced PCB concentrations characterized the soil from 1966. For OCPs the influence of sites location on the detected concentration has been revealed: China and India were characterized by comparably higher loads of DDX (DDT and its metabolites) and of HCH-isomers, respectively.     

浅析生态文明理念对内蒙古草原旅游资源开发重要性

生态文明是继农业、工业文明之后,适应新形势而提出的.以直接解决与人类生存相关的生态问题为己任,用于指引人们实现可持续发展为目标.在内蒙古地区,草原是最具内蒙古特色和开发价值的资源,然而在近几十年的开发中严重违反了生态文明理念,以致出现草场退化、生物生存危机等状况.在当前内蒙古草原出现的严重问题的情况下,很有必要去探寻生态文明理念的重要价值.结合中国传统文化中天时地利人和的重要思想,实现在“因时制宜、因地制宜、以人为本及各方因素协调共促”理念下新的草原开发.     

城市滨水景观评价研究初探——以南京市莫愁湖滨水区为例

城市滨水区一直被认为是一个城市最具活力和生态价值的区域，但伴随着城市职能的转型以及水运地位的下降，世界上大部分的滨水区都经历了从繁荣到衰败的过程。然而目前，随着城市人群的生态需求与审美需求的进一步提高，城市滨水区又面临着复兴之势，这也对城市滨水号观设计以及作为其基础而存在的滨水景观评价提出了新的要求。因此。本文将以成分代用模式评价方法为指导，以南京市莫愁湖滨水区为案例对其进行景观评价，并基于此获取影响滨水区景观质量的重要因素，以期对以后的滨水区规划设计起到一定的指导作用。     

Use of principal component analysis to profile temporal and spatial variations of chlorinated solvent concentration in groundwater

This work aims at evaluating spatial distribution patterns of concentration variations for chlorinated solvents in groundwater, based on principal component analysis and geographic information system (GIS) tools. The study investigates long-time series of chlorinated solvent concentrations in groundwater measured for 18 contaminated industrial sites. The characterization of contaminant plumes and delineation of pollutant sources are essential for choosing appropriate monitoring and remediation strategies, as contaminated groundwaters are characterized by complex patterns of spatial and temporal concentration variability, with wide unpredictable fluctuations over time. The present work describes the results of a new exploratory statistical method called the Variability Index Method (VIM) applied to environmental data to assess the performance of using concentration variations as molecular tracers to reveal aquifer dynamics, industrial impacts, and point sources for contamination plumes. The application of this method provides a useful assessment of controls over contaminant concentration variations as well as support for remediation techniques.     

基于粗糙集理论的危险品运输风险分析

为解决危险品风险分析问题,利用粗糙集理论在处理不确定、不精确问题上的优势,提出基于粗糙集理论的危险品运输风险分析方法。首先,建立决策表,经化简后获得各属性的重要度,识别出影响危险品运输的主要因素与次要因素,以及主次因素所占比例;然后,利用区分函数对决策表进行约简,得出决策表的属性约简;最后,利用决策表的决策规则对原始数据进行推导,得出危险品运输事故的一般规律。结果表明,影响危险品运输事故类型的最重要因素是危险品的类型,所占比重为42.86%,其次是危险品运输的道路状况与危险品运输车辆状况,各占28.57%。在道路状况欠佳且车辆状况良好的前提下,腐蚀品发生危险品事故的严重程度要依次高于毒害品与压缩气体和液化气体。     

海上应急保障资源调度的多目标模糊规划模型

针对现有应急资源调度模型无法完全适应海上应急保障环境的问题,建立了基于多目标模糊规划的海上应急资源调度模型.首先,将不确定的航行时间和资源需求量表示为三角模糊数,用时间隶属度函数的全积分对模糊应急开始时间进行确定化表示,用需求量隶属度表示需求点所接收的资源数量满足需求的程度.然后,考虑各需求点和各类资源的重要程度,以系统的时效性、需求满意度、安全性和经济性为优化目标建立多目标规划模型,最后,给出了模型的求解方法,并通过算例分析证明了方法的有效性.     

基于灰色模糊集理论的船舶搁浅概率分析

为深入分析船舶搁浅概率,在随机性和模糊性的基础上,考虑了系统的灰色性,建立灰色模糊集,模部为正态模糊数,灰部以系统的灰度熵来表示。建立了船舶航行计划失效造成船舶搁浅的事件树,构造了船舶搁浅概率的灰色模糊隶属度函数,根据各基本事件的失效概率来分析因航行计划失效造成船舶搁浅事故的灰色模糊概率分布情况。结果表明,与经典概率论和模糊概率相比,采用灰色模糊概率更能全面地反映船舶搁浅概率的可能性与不确定性。并采用RRW法和RAW法对基本事件的重要度进行了分析,找出了事故主要诱因及对降低事故风险价值最大的基本事件。