Rainfall Runoff Relationships for a Cloud Forest Watershed in Central America: Implications for Water Resource Engineering1

Caballero, Luis A., Alon Rimmer, Zachary M. Easton, and Tammo S. Steenhuis, 2012. Rainfall Runoff Relationships for a Cloud Forest Watershed in Central America: Implications for Water Resource Engineering. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(5): 1022‐1031. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00668.x Abstract: Understanding the basic relationships between rainfall and runoff is vital for effective management and utilization of scarce water resources. Especially, this is important in Central America with widespread potable water shortage during the dry months of the monsoon. Potential good water sources are cloud forests, but little information concerning its potential is available to water supply engineers. Our objective is to define rainfall‐runoff‐base flow relationships for a cloud forest catchment. Flumes were installed for measuring river flow in four subwatersheds in La Tigra National Park, Honduras. One of the four watersheds was a 636‐ha subwatershed (WS1) with 60% cloud forest coverage. Precipitation averaged 1,130 mm/yr over the entire basin. About half of the total rainfall became runoff for the cloud forest watershed whereas, for the adjacent undisturbed forested watershed, the total discharge was <20% of the amount of precipitation. Infiltration rates were generally greater than rainfall rates. Therefore, most rainfall infiltrated into the soil, especially in the upper, steep, and well‐drained portions of the watershed. Direct runoff was generated from saturated areas near the river and exposed bedrock. This research provides compelling evidence that base flow is the primary contributor to streamflow during both wet and dry seasons in cloud forest catchments. Protecting these flow processes over time is critical for the sustained provision of potable water.     

基于正态云模型的区域矿产资源可持续力评价

矿产资源是人类生存和社会可持续发展的基础,研究区域矿产资源的可持续力发展水平、能力和发展趋势,不仅仅是个地区问题,更应是资源保障问题,因而对我国资源承载能力和可持续发展具有十分重要的意义。针对当前区域矿产资源可持续力定量测度研究较少,且现有评价方法不能同时兼顾指标的模糊性与随机性的难题,该研究将正态云模型引入区域矿产资源可持续力综合评价。从资源、经济、环境(含人口)三方面构建矿产资源可持续力评价指标体系,基于正态云模型结合改进的层次分析法,不仅使得指标特点得以保真,而且各指标权重的计算量也大大减少,提高了评价方法的适用性。以湖南省2010—2015年间的矿产资源为研究对象,进行矿产资源可持续力定量测度。结果显示,6年间,湖南省矿产资源可持续力状态虽然始终处于III级(一般)状态,但可持续力综合值从2.600 0上升到3.070 8,区域矿产资源可持续力水平有日趋增加态势;个别评价指标仍处于较弱状态,单位GDP能耗量、万元工业产值中矿业产值比率、人口密度单因子得分值均2.5,表明这些指标相对较弱,有待进一步采取相关措施进行改善。该评价结果与实地调研基本吻合,表明该方法是可行的。本方法在定量评价中能兼顾随机性和模糊性,且计算过程简便,结果可靠,能为矿产资源定量评价提供参考。     

基于云化物元耦合模型的岩质高边坡工程爆破施工安全风险评估

针对岩质高边坡工程爆破施工安全风险评估过程中存在模糊性与随机性的特点,提出采用云模型改进传统物元理论,采用物元法和云模型相耦合的评估模型来处理评估中的不确定性问题。该云化物元耦合模型方法采用云模型的数字特征值代替物元基本元中的特征量值,通过云模型的相关算法来计算风险评估指标的云关联度;同时,采用基于改进CRITIC的客观赋权法确定评估指标权重,进而根据加权平均法求得评估事件的综合评估分数,并以此来判定其安全风险等级。案例应用研究表明:(1)基于CRITIC的客观赋权法不仅计算简便,而且其通过挖掘指标的信息量来确定评估指标权重,使得评估结果更具有可信性;(2)该云化物元耦合模型方法的评估结果与其他3种常用方法的评估结果基本吻合,且各评估案例的置信度因子均小于0.05,说明云化物元耦合模型方法应用于岩质高边坡工程爆破施工安全风险评估是合理、有效的;(3)该云化物元耦合模型方法通过采用综合评估分数来判定安全风险等级,相较于其他评估方法,能够提供评估案例更多的综合信息,且比其他方法更加全面地反映了评估指标间包含的复杂不确定关系,使得评估结果具有更高的可靠性。     

面向国土空间规划实施监督的监测评估预警模型体系研究

国土空间规划监测评估预警是监督规划实施管理、保障规划实施成效的重要手段,也是实现“可感知、能学习、善治理、自适应”智慧规划转型的关键支撑。针对当前国土空间规划监测评估预警研究重机制、轻理论,以及缺乏一套科学可用的监测评估预警技术方法支撑的不足,在系统分析国土空间规划监测评估预警目标与内涵的基础上,构建以人工智能（Artificial Intelligence）、大数据（Big Data）、云计算（Cloud Computing）等新型信息技术(“ABC”技术）为支撑,覆盖国土空间规划“监测—评估—预警”业务全生命周期的应用模型体系,并结合信息系统建设案例,介绍了基于“ABC”技术的国土空间规划监测评估预警模型体系对实现各地国土空间规划“动态监测、精准评估、及时预警”的重要支撑作用。     

基于TUV模式的对流层光解速率影响因子的研究

应用TUV辐射传输模式进行了一系列的敏感性试验,以期确定影响对流层O₃和NO₂光解速率的关键性因子.结果表明,气溶胶的光学性质对光解速率的影响存在明显差异.在气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）一定的情况下,散射性越强,近地面光解速率越大;当AOD从0.5增加至2.5,J[O¹D]和J[NO₂]极大值分别下降30.3%和13.1%.光解速率对较小的云光学厚度的变化比较敏感.云对J[NO₂]的影响存在明显的时间差异,在早晨和傍晚,J[NO₂]的衰减可以达到12%,而午时,J[NO₂]的衰减不足4%;在垂直方向上,云层的存在能够减小通过云层的光化辐射通量,有效降低云下光解速率,而云滴的后向散射特性能增大云上的光解速率.臭氧能够吸收300nm左右的紫外辐射,因而臭氧柱浓度变化对J[O¹D]有显著的影响,臭氧柱浓度从200DU增加至400DU,J[O¹D]极大值下降了53.1%,J[NO₂]极大值仅降低了1.0%.同时发现,气溶胶和云相对位置的改变对光解速率的垂直分布有较大的影响,气溶胶在云上时,高层的光解速率明显增大,且气溶胶的散射性越强,光解速率的增幅越大;当吸收性气溶胶位于云上时,使得高层光化辐射通量大量衰减,此时云层对于光解速率的影响比较微弱.     

基于葵花影像中国地区夜间云识别方法研究

目的实现适用于中国地区的夜间云识别。方法根据红外波段云与非云的亮温差异,采用亮温阈值法研究适用于中国地区的夜间云识别算法。中国地形高程差异明显,其地表辐射能量也存在较大差异,影响云检测结果精度,因而提出基于三个高程阶梯的云识别方法。由于云检测结果验证缺少可见光波段,使用MODIS云数据产品和雷达数据CALIPSO分别做定性和定量验证。结果云检测区域与MODIS的MYD06云产品基本一致,CALIPSO雷达数据四个月的平均验证结果为:非云区域的提取精度约77.86%,云区域的提取精度为79.67%,将有云区域错提为非云的误差率为2.76%,而将非云区域误提取为有云区域的错误率为12.31%。结论利用日本静止气象卫星Himawari-8影像数据,根据阈值法提出的基于三个高程阶梯的云检测算法,较好地实现了适用于中国地区的夜间云识别。     

云水和云下冲刷颗粒物与气态污染物对降水中硫酸盐和硝酸盐的贡献

为定量云水和云下冲刷分别对降水中SO₄2-、NO₃-的贡献,并进一步解析云下冲刷颗粒相和气相物质分别对降水样品中SO₄2-、NO₃-的贡献,于2016年4月-2017年2月采用APS-3A型降水自动采样仪对降水进行分段采集.采用离子色谱检测分段降水样品的ρ（SO₄2-）、ρ（NO₃-）,分析其变化规律;在降水前、降水中及降水后同步采集并检测大气颗粒相ρ（SO₄2-）、ρ（NO₃-）和气相ρ（SO₂）、ρ（NO₂）,分析颗粒相中ρ（SO₄2-）、ρ（NO₃-）和气相中ρ（SO₂）、ρ（NO₂）的变化与分布.结果表明:①ρ（SO₄2-）、ρ（NO₃-）在同一场降水的分段样品中呈逐渐降低至后期趋于平稳的趋势,说明降水对空气中污染物的冲刷使空气逐渐清洁,后期冲刷作用有限使得降水中离子质量浓度趋稳.②颗粒相中ρ（SO₄2-）、ρ（NO₃-）与气相中ρ（SO₂）、ρ（NO₂）在降水前较高,在降水中减小,并在降水后回升,说明降水对颗粒相SO₄2-、NO₃-和气相SO₂、NO₂均有清除作用,降水结束后无云下冲刷作用,污染物质量浓度逐步回升.③云水对降水中ρ（SO₄2-）、ρ（NO₃-）的贡献率分别为22%~56%（平均值为35%）、9%~49%（平均值为29%）,云下冲刷颗粒相SO₄2-、NO₃-对降水中ρ（SO₄2-）、ρ（NO₃-）的贡献率分别为39%~69%（平均值为55%）、43%~73%（平均值为56%）,云下冲刷气相SO₂、NO₂对降水中ρ（SO₄2-）、ρ（NO₃-）的贡献率分别为5%~17%（平均值为10%）、5%~19%（平均值为15%）.研究显示,降水中SO₄2-、NO₃-主要来源于云水和云下冲刷颗粒相SO₄2-、NO₃-,而来源于云下冲刷气相SO₂、NO₂较少.      

基于云模型的水体富营养化程度评价方法

水体富营养化程度评价对生态环境保护具有重要意义.针对水体富营养化程度评价不可避免的模糊性和随机性的特点,本文引入云模型的方法,对我国14个代表性湖库的富营养化程度进行评价.根据确定的评价标准,生成各评价因子隶属于各级别的综合云模型,并针对湖库实测资料,得到各评价物的确定度,由最大确定度决定湖库营养化级别.将该法所得结果与湖库实际水质状况、国内外应用较为广泛且简便的营养状态指数、评分公式法及模糊综合评价法所得结果进行对比,发现评价结果真实可靠,计算过程简洁明了,验证了该方法的可行性和有效性.     

CFD-based simulation of dense gas dispersion in presence of obstacles

Quantification of spatial and temporal concentration profiles of vapor clouds resulting from accidental loss of containment of toxic and/or flammable substances is of great importance as correct prediction of spatial and temporal profiles can not only help in designing mitigation/prevention equipment such as gas detection alarms and shutdown procedures but also help decide on modifications that may help prevent any escalation of the event.The most commonly used models - SLAB (Ermak, 1990), HEGADAS (Colenbrander, 1980), DEGADIS (Spicer & Havens, 1989), HGSYSTEM (Witlox & McFarlane, 1994), PHAST (DNV, 2007), ALOHA (EPA & NOAA, 2007), SCIPUFF (Sykes, Parker, Henn, & Chowdhury, 2007), TRACE (SAFER Systems, 2009), etc. - for simulation of dense gas dispersion consider the dispersion over a flat featureless plain and are unable to consider the effect of presence of obstacles in the path of dispersing medium. In this context, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been recognized as a potent tool for realistic estimation of consequence of accidental loss of containment because of its ability to take into account the effect of complex terrain and obstacles present in the path of dispersing fluid.The key to a successful application of CFD in dispersion simulation lies in the accuracy with which the effect of turbulence generated due to the presence of obstacles is assessed. Hence a correct choice of the most appropriate turbulence model is crucial to a successful implementation of CFD in the modeling and simulation of dispersion of toxic and/or flammable substances.In this paper an attempt has been made to employ CFD in the assessment of heavy gas dispersion in presence of obstacles. For this purpose several turbulence models were studied for simulating the experiments conducted earlier by Health and Safety Executive, (HSE) U.K. at Thorney Island, USA (Lees, 2005). From the various experiments done at that time, the findings of Trial 26 have been used by us to see which turbulence model enables the best fit of the CFD simulation with the actual findings. It is found that the realizable k-? model was the most apt and enabled the closest prediction of the actual findings in terms of spatial and temporal concentration profiles. It was also able to capture the phenomenon of gravity slumping associated with dense gas dispersion.     

Evaluating the potential for overpressures from the ignition of an LNG vapor cloud during offloading

Ignition of natural gas (composed primarily of methane) is generally not considered to pose explosion hazards when in unconfined and low- or medium-congested areas, as most of the areas within LNG regasification facilities can typically be classified. However, as the degrees of confinement and/or congestion increase, the potential exists for the ignition of a methane cloud to result in damaging overpressures (as demonstrated by the recurring residential explosions due to natural gas leaks). Therefore, it is prudent to examine a proposed facility’s design to identify areas where vapor cloud explosions (VCEs) may cause damage, particularly if the damage may extend off site.An area of potential interest for VCEs is the dock, while an LNG carrier is being offloaded: the vessel hull provides one degree of confinement and the shoreline may provide another; some degree of congestion is provided by the dock and associated equipment.In this paper, the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software FLACS is used to evaluate the consequences of the ignition of a flammable vapor cloud from an LNG spill during the LNG carrier offloading process. The simulations will demonstrate different approaches that can be taken to evaluate a vapor cloud explosion scenario in a partially confined and partially congested geometry.