生物质环保能源产业链发展探讨

简述了生物质概念及生物质利用技术的概况,介绍了生物质(竹、木剩余物)气、炭、液、油四联产生物质能源利用产业链的发展思路,对生物质利用的市场应用及发展进行了分析预测。     

中国北方城市内河水资源综合利用与调配方案研究——以胶州市城市内河为例

内河是城市的重要组成部分,而伴随着快速城镇化进程,城市内河原有的水文、生态节律都受到很大的扰动。针对胶州市水资源量相对有限、水环境质量较差的现状,以河道生态需水量理论为指导,以期通过实施科学的生态补水,逐步恢复城市内河的生态功能与城市景观功能。结果表明,胶州市城市内河以景观功能为主,经测算其生态需水量为36 486.9m3/d,而根据胶州市的相关发展规划,其污水处理厂中水回用能力为5万m3/d,可以满足生态补水工程的需求;根据生态补水工程实施后的污染物入河情况预测,实施生态补水后,胶州市城市内河水质基本达到《地表水环境质量标准》(GB 3838—2002)Ⅳ类标准,基本可消除水体黑臭等现象。     

基于GFI模型的工业能源强度变动因素分解研究

在前人研究的基础上,核算了2001-2010年天津市34个工业行业的能源强度,利用GFI(Generalized Fisher Index)模型将能源强度的变动分解为技术进步、能源结构和产业结构3个因素.结果表明,从逐年各因素效应的累积值来看,产业结构对天津市能源强度变动的影响最大,其次是能源结构,技术进步的影响较小;在各因素效应值的波动方面,能源结构与技术进步对能源强度变动的影响波动较小,产业结构的影响效应值波动较大.从产业结构的角度来看,天津市2001-2010年重工业产值的增加快于轻工业,二者的差距逐渐加大,这种态势抑制了能源强度的降低;从技术进步的角度来看,由于绿色生产技术的广泛使用,天津市重工业与轻工业的单位产值能源消耗都呈下降趋势.因此,天津市进一步降低能源强度的重点还应该放在产业结构调整方面,发展绿色产业,促进产业升级;同时,不能忽视能源结构和技术进步因素的作用,大力发展绿色能源和新能源,推广清洁生产技术.     

Golden Eagle fatalities and the continental‐scale consequences of local wind‐energy generation

Renewable energy production is expanding rapidly despite mostly unknown environmental effects on wildlife and habitats. We used genetic and stable isotope data collected from Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) killed at the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area (APWRA) in California in demographic models to test hypotheses about the geographic extent and demographic consequences of fatalities caused by renewable energy facilities. Geospatial analyses of δ²H values obtained from feathers showed that ≥25% of these APWRA‐killed eagles were recent immigrants to the population, most from long distances away (>100 km). Data from nuclear genes indicated this subset of immigrant eagles was genetically similar to birds identified as locals from the δ²H data. Demographic models implied that in the face of this mortality, the apparent stability of the local Golden Eagle population was maintained by continental‐scale immigration. These analyses demonstrate that ecosystem management decisions concerning the effects of local‐scale renewable energy can have continental‐scale consequences.     

Process analysis of an industrial waste-to-energy plant: Theory and experiments

Thermal conversion is fundamental in an integrated waste management system due to the capability of reducing mass and volume of waste and recovering energy content from unrecyclable materials. Indeed, power generation from industrial solid wastes (ISW) is a topic of great interest for its appeal in the field of renewable energy production as well as for an increasing public concern related to its emissions. This paper is based on the process engineering and optimization analysis, commissioned to the University Campus-Biomedico of Rome by the MIDA Tecnologie Ambientali S.r.l. enterprise, ended up in the construction of an ISW thermo-conversion plant in Crotone (Southern Italy), where it is nowadays operating. The scientific approach to the process analysis is founded on a novel cascade numerical simulation of each plant section and it has been used initially in the process design step and after to simulate the performances of the industrial plant. In this paper, the plant process scheme is described together with the values of main operating parameters monitored during the experimental test runs. The thermodynamic and kinetic basics of the mathematical model for the simulation of the energy recovery and flue gas treatment sections are presented. Moreover, the simulation results, together with the implemented parameters, are given and compared to the experimental data for 10 specific plant test runs. It was found that the model is capable to predict the process performances in the energy production as well as in the gas treatment sections with high accuracy by knowing a set of measurable input variables. In the paper fundamental plant variables have been considered such as steam temperature, steam flow rate, power generated as well as temperature, flow rate and composition of the resulting flue gas; therefore, the mathematical model can be simply implemented as a reliable and efficient tool for management optimization of this kind of plants.     

Are policy incentives for solar power effective? Evidence from residential installations in the Northeast

State incentives for solar power have grown significantly in the past several years. This paper examines the effectiveness of policy incentives to increase residential solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity. We use county-level panel data and control for demographic characteristics, solar resources, and pro-environmental preferences. Results show that among financial incentives, rebates have the most impact with an additional $1 per watt rebate increasing annual PV capacity additions by close to 50%. Factors that affect financial returns to solar PV such as electricity price and solar insolation are also found to be significant. Results also point to a significant positive relationship between hybrid vehicle sales and residential PV capacity growth, indicating the importance of pro-environmental preferences as a predictor of solar PV demand. Back of the envelope calculations suggest that the cost of carbon mitigation through rebates is around $184 per ton of CO₂.     

城市土地生态适宜性分区划分研究

在新型城镇化与生态文明建设背景下,城市发展迫切需要合理布局以实现城市土地的节约集约利用,降低城市化过程中因建设用地肆意蔓延所导致的土地资源浪费与生态环境破坏影响。以常州市武进区为例,采用地形地貌、生态环境、交通设施、建设密度4类因子建立景观过程阻力赋值体系,结合GIS空间分析技术,以垂直生态过程的多因素多因子综合判别得到的生态保护用地扩张和城镇用地扩张阻力基面为基础,再以描述水平生态过程的最小累积阻力模型计算两种扩张过程的最小累积阻力值,并依据二者的最小累积阻力差值表面,从空间上将武进区划分为4个等级的城市土地生态适宜性分区,分别为优先建设区118.39 km²、适宜建设区233.60 km²、生态缓冲区777.91 km²、生态控制区115.90 km²,明确指出了各分区的空间布局,提出了相应的发展建议,以期为武进区未来城市发展提供科学合理的空间布局参考。同时考虑了垂直生态过程和水平生态过程,一定程度上弥补了传统方法只从景观单元垂直过程研究的不足之处,为生态适宜性分区划分的方法研究提供了有益的尝试和补充。     

多情景视角下中国能源消费和碳达峰路径

准确预测能源消费及碳排放量对于科学有序落实我国"2030年前碳达峰,2060年前碳中和"目标有重要现实意义.提出了一种融合位置扰动和模拟退火的改进粒子群算法（IPSO）优化基于两层"分解-集成"策略的预测方法：首先利用趋势分解（TD）将原始能源消费时序分解成趋势项和非趋势项,继而使用经验模态分解（EMD）将非趋势项分解成若干本征模态函数（IMFs）和一个残差项,然后对上述趋势项、IMFs和残差项分别建模预测,利用IPSO优化多元线性回归模型（MLR）预测趋势项,采用长短期记忆神经网络（LSTM）预测非趋势项的本征模态函数IMFs和残差子序列,最后通过相加集成求取最终能源消费预测值.实证分析表明,基于TD-EMD两层"分解-集成"策略的IPSO-MLR-LSTM模型融合了TD、EMD、IPSO和LSTM的优点,更全面地捕捉了趋势项和非趋势项演化规律,提升了预测性能,将其应用于能源消费领域是可行且有效的.最后,预测了在不同能源消费结构、经济增长、人口数量、能源效率和人均生活能源消费水平情景下的我国2021~2035年能源消费和碳排放量,并给出相关政策建议.     

热能（火用）平衡在芳烃分离装置清洁生产审核中的实践

运用热能（火用）平衡理论于芳烃分离装置清洁生产审核中,建立了芳烃分离装置热能（火用）平衡。热能（火用）平衡测算结果表明：此芳烃分离装置的热能利用效率（实际）为61．65％、热（火用）利用效率（实际）为59．77％、热力学第一定律效率和热力学第二定律效率分别为23．93％和7．76％。依据清洁生产审核思路,对此芳烃分离装置的热能（火用）利用效率进行了原因分析并提出了预防对策,可为提出清洁生产方案提供定量化依据。     

辽宁省近50年降水量的突变特征及变化趋势分析

首先采用Pettitt方法对辽宁省21个气象站1958年一2008年51年的降水量序列进行突变分析,结果显示54476和54486两测站的年降水量序列分别在1996年和1998年存在显著的突变且通过了显著性水平检验,其它测站的降水量序列均未检测出显著的突变年份。根据累积距平曲线分析辽宁省51年的年均降水量在时间尺度上大致分为三个阶段：1958年一1975年为降水量增加阶段,1975年一1996年为降水量稳定阶段,1996年一2008为降水量减少阶段。最后应用Morlet小波分析对辽宁省年均降水量进行周期分析,结果表明降水在大尺度时间上存在约24年的周期震荡,在小尺度时间上存在约9年的周期震荡。