Prioritizing groundwater remediation policies: a fuzzy compatibility analysis decision aid

The implementation of groundwater remediation strategies in contaminated areas includes not only a cost-benefit analysis and an environmental risk assessment but also another type of study called compatibility analysis. A compatibility analysis targets the interactions between remediation technologies and site characteristics, such as the types of active contaminants and their concentrations, soil composition and geological features, etc. The purpose of this analysis is to identify the most compatible remediation plan for the contaminated site. In this paper, we introduce a decision support system for the prioritization of remediation plans based on their estimated compatibility index. As this model receives data in terms of linguistic judgments and experts' opinions, we use fuzzy sets theory to deal with these uncertainties. First, we break down the concept of compatibility into the measurable factors. Then by using a multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) outline, we compute a factorial, regional and overall compatibility indicator for each plan. Finally, by comparing these generated indicators, we rank the remediation policies.     

Economic valuation as a tool to support decision-making in strategic green infrastructure planning

Decision-making in spatial planning is often based only on administrative regulations and procedures. This approach does not guarantee an efficient allocation of scarce financial resources. Consequently, the present paper discusses the practical relevance of an approach to incorporate results of economic valuation into strategic spatial planning for the example of green infrastructure. For this, a contingent valuation was conducted at a reference site in Esslingen, Germany. Here, participants of the survey stated their willingness to pay for different green infrastructure investment categories. Build on the survey results, the possible future foci of regional green infrastructure planning are derived and impacts on regional green infrastructure policy for the case of the Neckar region are investigated.     

防灾工程动态投资决策分析

本文应用最优控制理论对作者在文献[1]中所建立的两个防灾工程多变量动态投资决策模型进行了求解和理论分析。在一些基本符合工程实际的假设下得到了模型的解析解以及一些有意义的结果。     

基于成本收益分析的油气管道风险控制决策过程

为实现对油气管道风险的有效控制,结合油气管道的特点,基于成本收益分析方法改进风险控制决策过程。首先,确定风险控制目标,对所建议的措施进行初步筛选,并根据行业现状确定基线场景;之后,量化筛选后的措施的成本与收益,通过计算成本收益率(CBR)或规避事故隐含成本(ICAF)来确定相应措施的合理性;最后,依据上述分析制定风险控制决策。结果表明:不同措施的CBR或ICAF值不同,CBR或ICAF值较低的措施应被优先实施;而当CBR或ICAF值超过标准值时,相应措施是不合理的,应不予以实施。     

Implementing wildlife-management strategies into road infrastructure in southern Ontario: a critical success factors approach

Wildlife-road conflict has profound negative impacts on both wildlife populations and society. Despite a long-held understanding of this problem, in most regions the wildlife-management strategies (WMS) available to mitigate this conflict are still relatively underutilized. This study examines the implementation of these strategies into road infrastructure, using Southern Ontario as a case study, in order to develop an understanding of what leads to successful WMS implementation. The project management concept of critical success factors was applied and interviews with project decision-makers and key stakeholders were conducted. Nine factors were identified and a comparison between a ‘smooth’ and ‘rough’ project is used to illustrate the cumulative effects that these factors, and their interrelationships, have on project implementation success. Practitioners can use these findings to evaluate WMS projects based on likelihood of success and allocate resources accordingly, ultimately leading to increased chances of implementation and overall benefit to conservation and society.     

小区域污水处理的多目标规划设计探讨

随着城市的不断发展 ,污水处理厂的规模、承受的负荷也不断增大。对小区污水处理设施进行规划设计已越来越重要。以生活小区为例 ,利用多目标灰色决策进行工艺选择 ,使处理设施达到社会、环境、经济效益的优化结合     

中国工业园区生态化发展决策优化方法研究

工业是当前中国经济绿色转型升级的关键行业,而工业园区作为工业集聚化发展的主要载体,工业园区生态化发展是解决资源环境问题、实现经济可持续发展的有效途径。本文关注工业园区生态化发展的中长期发展战略和具体方案,致力于通过仿真模拟的方法提出工业园区生态化发展的方向和优化路径,实现研究方法的创新。研究以3E系统(经济—环境—能源)为基础,综合分析工业园区经济发展与能源环境之间的耦合关系,并结合动态投入产出模型和系统动力学模型构建生态化发展决策模型,通过最优化动态模拟方法开展趋势预测和路径研究。通过辛集工业园区的实证和案例研究,对其生态化发展路径进行深入研究,验证了研究方法的科学性和可靠性,能够为工业园区生态化发展提供实践指导。本文为工业园区生态化发展规划提供新的研究方法,为制定合理有效的工业园区综合战略和实施路径提供科学依据。     

CREAM失误概率预测法在驾驶舱机组判断与决策过程中的应用

CREAM强调人在生产活动中的绩效输出不是孤立的随机性行为,而是依赖于人完成任务时所处的环境或工作条件,它通过影响人的认知控制模式和其在不同认知活动中的效应,最终决定人的响应行为。在驾驶舱内,机组的绩效输出不仅仅是人的自身行为,还依赖于其完成任务时所处的情景环境,所以CREAM方法能够结合驾驶舱环境对机组的认知差错进行分析。在飞行中,驾驶舱内机组非常重要的一个环节是判断与决策过程,这一过程中包括询问、讨论、确定方案、执行、反馈五个环节。本文将通过分析这五个环节的相互关系及影响,以明确这种讨论过程是减少机组人为差错发生的一种有益方式,然后应用CREAM的预测法对这五个环节进行定量化分析,得出机组判断与决策过程的失误概率,完成对机组认知行为的客观评价,并为以后能够定量化研究驾驶舱内飞行员认知差错提供方法的借鉴。