云南干旱的气候特征及变化趋势研究

以Thornthwaite水分平衡干燥度指数为主和自定义的反映短期降水有效性和异常性特征的有效降水指数为辅构建单站干旱综合指数,并定义了定量描述云南省受旱程度的干旱面积指数和干旱强度指数。采用变率和变差系数作为长期气候特征的定量指标,用云南省1959-2005年的资料,分1-3月、4-6月上旬、6-8月、9-10月、11-12月5个时段对云南省的干旱气候特征及变化趋势进行定量分析研究。结果表明：云南1-3月干旱最严重,平均每年有约2/3的土地受旱;其次是11-12月,有约50%的土地受旱;再次是4-6月上旬,有22%的土地受旱;9-10月干旱较轻,有约5%的土地受旱;6-8月平均受旱面积不到1%,基本不受干旱的影响。云南4-6月上旬和9-10月这两个时段干旱有发展加重的气候变化趋势,且9-10月加重的趋势更明显;1-3月干旱有减轻的趋势;11-12月和6-8月干旱变化趋势不明显。     

基于生态系统服务功能理论的生态足迹模型研究

由于传统Wackemagel and Rees生态足迹模型仅研究人类对资源的需求和生态系统供给的生物生产能力之间的差距,忽略了生态系统的其它功能,无法体现生态系统的整体性.本文以传统生态足迹模型为基础,引入生态系统服务功能价值理论,提出了基于生态系统服务功能价值的生态足迹模型.该模型以生态生产性土地的生态服务功能价值评估为基础,改进传统生态足迹模型中均衡因子和产量因子的计算方法.采用生物生产性土地的综合生态系统服务功能的价值当量因子计量生态足迹模型中的均衡因子,采用生态系统单元的单位面积生态系统服务功能价值与全国该生态系统单元的平均价值的比值表示产量因子.改进后的生态足迹模型既反映了区域人类资源消费对生物生产性土地的占用,又反映了区域人类资源消费对生态系统服务功能的使用,较科学的体现了生态系统的整体性.同时,本文以大连市2005年社会经济统计数据为基础,运用改进的生态足迹模型对大连市的生态足迹进行了测算,对研究模型进行了检验.     

城市绿地生态综合评价研究进展

以"四川省地震灾后置建社会满意度调查"数据为依据,通过因子分析,找到影响社会满意度的关键因素,确立低碳模式为灾后和谐社会建设的最佳模式.通过对低碳社会的特征分析,结合社会学理论,认为:低碳社会的发展是低碳价值理念、低碳准则、低碳行为互相作用的过程.低碳社会模式的发展路径是基于综合集成与统筹优选的方法,从价值理念、低碳行为、规范体系三个方面对低碳社会的各项要素进行集成:低碳社会的推行模式分为低碳农村模式和低碳城市模式.低碳农村可以与灾区社会主义新农村建设同步进行,发展生态经济,探索生态发展模式和生态补偿政策;低碳城市相对于一般社会发展模式和农村发展模式,更集中体现在建筑、交通、文化、消费行为等某些特定领域.建议:从国家到灾区的各级政府必须多管齐下,从制度创新入手,实施一系列相互配套、切实有效的对策及措施,如转变单纯追求GDP的政策目标,制定法律法规,促进新能源开发,建立低碳技术支撑体系等来保障低碳社会模式的推行.     

Determining C/N ratios for typical organic wastes using biodegradable fractions

It is well established that an optimal aerobic and anaerobic microbial metabolism is achieved with a C/N ratio between 20 and 30. Most studies are currently based on chemically-measured carbon and nitrogen contents. However, some organic wastes can be composed of recalcitrant carbon fractions that are not bioavailable. To know the biodegradable C/N ratio, two different methods to determine the aerobic and anaerobic biodegradable organic carbon (BOC_AE and BOC_AN) are proposed and used to analyze a wide variety of different organic samples. In general, raw wastes and digested products have more amount of BOC_AE. On the contrast, the samples collected after an aerobic treatment have higher content of BOC_AN. In any case, all the BOC fractions are lower than the total organic carbon (TOC). Therefore, the C/N ratios based on BOC are always lower than the total C/N ratio based on the TOC measure. The knowledge of the real bioavailable C/N ratio is crucial for the biological treatments of organic materials. To reduce the test time necessary for BOC determination, the values of BOC for all the samples obtained at different times were compared and correlated with the final BOC. A method that allows for the determination of BOC_AE in 4 d is proposed. In relation to the anaerobic assay, the biogas potential calculated after 21 and 50 d was positively correlated with the final potential defined after 100 d of assay.     

安徽经济发展对资源环境的压力分析

目前,安徽省经济已经进入新一轮增长周期的上升阶段,经济发展正面临着重大转折.在快速发展的同时,也面临着诸多挑战,尤其是资源、环境方面的约束进一步加剧.因此,定量研究安徽省目前经济发展所面临的资源环境压力及其产生原因具有一定的现实意义.本文在充分吸收前人研究成果基础上,通过运用经济增长与资源环境压力指数法定量分析安徽省经济发展过程中所面临的资源环境压力,得出1999 -2008年间,安徽省资源环境压力一直偏大,且有不断恶化的趋势.在此基础上,进一步分析了造成安徽资源环境压力偏大的原因——产业结构偏重、环保投入不足等,并提出相关对策建议.     

基于聚类分析和水质标识指数的水质评价方法

为探讨一种适用于大尺度、多断面和长时间的水质评价方法,用层次聚类分析将2006~2008年海河5个监测断面的165个水质样本分为20组,并用方差分析验证了结果的可靠性。用综合水质标识指数表示水质样本的综合特征,与单因子评价法相比,该方法充分考虑了最差水质因子的影响,避免了单因子评价法以偏概全的缺陷,且分辨率高。将评价结果分解到各断面,结果表明:密云水库、官厅水库和于桥水库的水质处于II~III类水之间,可满足作为饮用水水源水的要求,三岔口断面大部分时间为IV~V类水,张家口八号桥断面全年有6个月以上水质属于劣V类。     

基于VEGETATION数据区域生态系统质量评价之三——服务功能稳定度指数评价

区域生态系统服务功能的稳定性是评价其生态功能的重要指标之一。构建了区域生态系统服务功能稳定度指数评价模型,并对中国1998～2004年间区域生态系统生产能力进行评价,发现中国各区域生态系统的生态稳定度指数在空间上差异巨大。造成这种差异的原因主要是生态系统的人化程度。从区域生态系统服务于功能稳定度看,西北内陆区由于气候干燥,生态系统的生产能力十分有限,呈现出低水平的稳定。     

鸭绿江丹东段水体TOC与高锰酸盐指数相关性及应用探讨

通过对2007年~2009年鸭绿江丹东段地表水中TOC和高锰酸盐指数进行枯、丰、平三个水期109组数据同步监测的结果表明,两者之间存在密切的相关关系,经一元线性回归得出三个水期的回归方程。经相关系数显著水平检验,表明在99.9%的置信水平下,TOC和高锰酸盐指数线性相关非常显著。     

Inconsistency and comprehensiveness of risk assessments for heavy metals in urban surface sediments

Numerous indices have been developed to assess environmental risk of heavy metals in surface sediments, including the total content based geoaccumulation index (I_geo), exchangeable fraction based risk assessment code (RAC), and biological toxicity test based sediment quality guidelines (SQGs). In this study, the three indices were applied to freshwater surface sediments from 10 sections along an urbanization gradient of the Grand Canal, China to assess the environmental risks of heavy metals (Cu, Pb, Zn, Cd, and Cr) and to understand discrepancies of risk assessment indices and urbanization effects regarding heavy metal contamination. Results showed that Cd, Zn, and Pb were the most enriched metals in urban sections assessed by I_geo and over 95% of the samples exceeded the Zn and Pb thresholds of the effect range low (ERL) of SQGs. According to RAC, Cu, Zn, Cd, and Cr had high risks of adversely affecting the water quality of the Grand Canal due to their remarkable portions of exchangeable fraction in surface sediment. However, Pb showed a relative low risk, and was largely bounded to Fe/Mn oxides in the urban surface sediments. Obviously, the three assessment indices were not consistent with each other in terms of predicting environmental risks attributed to heavy metals in the freshwater surface sediments of this study. It is recommended that risk assessment by SQGs should be revised according to availability and site specificity. However, the combination of the three indices gave us a comprehensive understanding of heavy metal risks in the urban surface sediments of the Grand Canal.     

Incidence of thyroid disease following exposure to polybrominated biphenyls and polychlorinated biphenyls, Michigan, 1974-2006

Thyroid hormones, which influence body metabolism and development, could be affected by persistent organic pollutants. We sought to examine the relationship between polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and thyroid disease. We employed incidence density sampling to perform a nested case control analysis of the Michigan Long-Term PBB Cohort. Cohort members (n = 3333) were exposed to PBBs through contaminated cattle feed in 1973-1974 and to PCBs through daily life. Those with detectable serum PBB and PCB concentrations at enrollment were categorized into tertiles of PBB and PCB exposure. Case-patients were cohort members answering “Yes” to “Has a healthcare provider ever told you that you had a thyroid problem?” during follow-up interviews; control-patients were cohort members answering “No”. We used odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) to compare odds of thyroid disease by PBB and PCB exposure and by various risk factors. Total cumulative thyroid disease incidence after 33 years was 13.9% among women and 2.6% among men. After adjusting for body mass index, we found no statistically significant differences in odds of any type of thyroid disease among women or men with elevated PBB or PCB exposure. Compared to control-patients, women with thyroid disease had increased odds of being overweight/obese (OR = 2.82, 95% CI: 1.94-4.11) and developing infertility (OR = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.08-2.69), diabetes (OR = 1.61, 95% CI: 1.04-2.51), or arthritis (OR = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.18-2.50) during follow-up. Additional research should explore potential associations between PBBs/PCBs and thyroid disease among children exposed in utero.