长江三角洲近50年耕地数量变化的过程与驱动机制研究

长江三角洲是中国人口最密集、经济增长最快和土地集约化利用程度最高的地区之一,经济快速发展加剧的人地矛盾已经成为区域可持续发展面临的一个重要问题。论文利用近50年耕地长序列统计资料和近5年的土地详查与变更数据,研究揭示了长江三角洲高强度土地开发的特征和近50年耕地数量变化的基本过程及其空间差异,并初步探讨了耕地数量变化的主要驱动因子及其作用。研究表明,近50年来,长江三角洲地区耕地数量呈现明显的波动减少趋势,经历了由增加→急剧减少→缓慢减少→快速减少的基本变化过程,其中分别在1958～1963年、1985年前后和1993年前后出现了三次明显的耕地流失高峰,其形成机制主要是政策、经济发展和人口增长的驱动。     

Migration of saline solutions in variably saturated porous media

Migration of concentrated NaNO3 solutions in homogeneous packs of pre-wetted silica sands was investigated using a light transmission system. Solutions of 5 molal NaNO3 were found to migrate downward 24-62% faster than pure water, in an unstable, fingered manner. This behavior was attributed primarily to a surface tension induced, non-zero apparent contact angle between the imbibing and the resident fluids. For saline solutions of similar surface tension to that of pure water (achieved by the addition of 2% methanol), the migration rates and plume shapes were comparable to that of water, demonstrating that density was not the primary source of the observed differences in migration patterns. At depths where resident saturation increased above residual, the migration process appeared to occur via film flow with slight changes in saturation (<4%), rather than in a series of abrupt jumps, as observed at shallower depths. A method for contact angle scaling was used to illustrate the effects of non-zero contact angles on capillary pressure-saturation curves.     

Renormalized numerical simulation of flow over planar and non-planar fractal trees

We review the fundamentals of a new numerical modeling technique called Renormalized Numerical Simulation (RNS). The goal of RNS is to model the drag force produced by high Reynolds-number turbulent flow over objects that display scale-invariant properties, objects such as tree-like fractals. The hallmark of RNS in this application is that the drag of the unresolved tree branches is modeled using drag coefficients measured from the resolved branches and unresolved branches (as modeled in previous iterations of the procedure). In the present paper, RNS is used to study the effects of branch orientation on the drag force generated by highly idealized trees in which trunk and branches have square cross-section, and the branches all lie in a plane perpendicular to the incoming flow. Then, the procedure is generalized to the more general case of non-planar branch arrangements. Results illustrate that RNS may enable numerical modeling of environmental flow processes associated with fractal geometries using affordable computational resolution.     

基于SEM的双车道公路超车行为安全评价

为提高驾驶人在双车道公路上超车的安全性,基于tau理论适应性分析,提出超车过程中驾驶人不仅根据tau线索估计避碰时间,也利用距离、速度、加速度等判断超车是否安全的试验假设。招募12名受试者,应用驾驶模拟系统试验平台,依据试验假设采集12个与超车行为有关的驾驶行为数据,对其进行无量纲化处理,并利用Bootstrap法对数据进行扩增。结合驾驶行为问卷得分,利用AMOS软件,建立超车行为安全评价的结构方程模型。通过对初始假设模型进行多次修正与评价,得到影响超车行为安全的3个驾驶行为参数。结果表明,超车车辆在超车并道后的速度、与前导车之间的避碰时间及与对向车辆之间的避碰时间这3个驾驶行为参数可作为超车行为安全评价的有效指标。     

The theory of planned behavior (TPB) and texting while driving behavior in college students

Objective: To examine the role of intent and other theory of planned behavior (TPB) constructs in predicting college students' willingness to text while driving (TWD).

Methods: This was a cross-sectional study. 243 male and female college students enrolled in the 2013–2014 academic year in the College of Health, Human Services & Nursing completed a survey on TWD. Inclusion criteria: All races and ethnicities, ≥18 years of age, cell phone owner, and licensed driver.

Results: Over 70% of the sample (n = 243) reported talking on a cell phone and sending and receiving text messages “at least a few times” while driving within the past week. However, only 27% reported being stopped by police. Of these, 22% reported being fined. Within the past 30 days, 26% reported reading or sending TWD and having to slam on the brakes to avoid hitting another car or pedestrian(s) as a result. In all, 47% of the variance in intention to send TWD was accounted for by the full TPB model. Intention, in turn, predicted willingness to TWD. Intention also mediated the relationship between perceived behavioral control and willingness to TWD.

Conclusion: Attitude was found to be the strongest predictor of intention. In addition, intention was found to mediate the relationship of willingness to TWD on perceived behavioral control. These findings highlight potential factors that could be targeted in behavioral change interventions seeking to prevent TWD.     

High beam headlamp use rates: Effects of rurality,proximity of other traffic,and roadway curvature

Objective: The few observational studies of the prevalence of high beam use indicate the rate of high beam use is about 25% when vehicles are isolated from other vehicles on unlit roads. Recent studies were limited to 2-lane rural roads and used measurement methods that likely overestimated use. The current study examined factors associated with the rate of high beam use of isolated vehicles on a variety of roadways in the Ann Arbor, Michigan area.

Methods: Twenty observation sites were categorized as urban, rural, or on a rural/urban boundary and selected to estimate the effects of street lighting, road curvature, and direction of travel relative to the city on high beam use. Sites were selected in pairs so that a majority of traffic passing one site also passed through the other. Measurement of high beams relied on video data recorded for 2 nights at each site, and the video data also were used to derive a precise measure of the proximity of other traffic. Nearly 3,200 isolated vehicles (10 s or longer from other vehicles) were observed, representing 1,500-plus vehicle pairs.

Results: Across the sample, 18% of the vehicles used high beams. Seventy-three percent of the 1,500-plus vehicle pairs used low beams at each paired site, whereas 9% used high beams at both sites. Vehicles at rural sites and sites at the boundaries of Ann Arbor were more likely to use high beams than vehicles at urban sites, but use in rural areas compared with rural/urban boundary areas did not vary significantly. Rates at all sites were much lower than expected, ranging from 0.9 to 52.9%. High beam use generally increased with greater time between subject vehicles and leading vehicles and vehicles in the opposing lane. There were mixed findings associated with street lighting, road curvature, and direction of travel relative to the city.

Conclusion: Maximizing visibility available to drivers from headlights includes addressing the substantial underuse of high beam headlamps. Advanced technologies such as high beam assist, which switches automatically between high and low beam headlamps depending on the presence of other traffic, can help to address this problem.     

Evaluation of a responsible beverage service and enforcement program: Effects on bar patron intoxication and potential impaired driving by young adults

Objective: Studies of alcohol-related harm (violence, injury, illness) suggest that the most significant risk factors are the amount of alcohol consumed and whether obviously intoxicated patrons continue to be served. This study's objective was to investigate the effects of a responsible beverage service (RBS)/enhanced alcohol enforcement intervention on bars, bar patrons, and impaired driving.

Method: Two communities—Monroe County, New York, and Cleveland, Ohio—participated in a demonstration program and evaluation. The intervention applied RBS training, targeted enforcement, and corrective actions by law enforcement to a random sample of 10 identified problem bars in each community compared to 10 matched nonintervention problem bars. Data were collected over 3 waves on bar serving practices, bar patron intoxication, drinking and driving, and other alcohol-related harm from intervention and control bars and treatment and comparison communities.

Results: In Monroe County, New York, of the 14 outcome measures analyzed, 7 measures showed statistically significant differences from pre- to postintervention. Six of those measures indicated changes in the desired or positive direction and 2 measures were in the undesired or negative direction. Of note in the positive direction, the percentage of intervention bar patrons who were intoxicated decreased from 44 to 27% and the average blood alcohol concentration of patrons decreased from 0.097 to 0.059 g/dL pre- to postintervention. In Cleveland, Ohio, 6 of the 14 measures showed statistically significant changes pre- to postintervention with 6 in the positive direction and 4 in the negative direction. Of note, the percentage of pseudo-intoxicated patrons denied service in intervention bars increased from 6 to 29%.

Conclusions: Of the 14 outcome measures that were analyzed in each community, most indicated positive changes associated with the intervention, but others showed negative associations. About half of the measures showed no significance, the sample sizes were too small, or the data were unavailable. Therefore, at best, the results of these demonstration programs were mixed. There were, however, some positive indications from the intervention. It appears that when bar managers and owners are aware of the program and its enforcement and when servers are properly trained in RBS, fewer patrons may become intoxicated and greater efforts may be made to deny service to obviously intoxicated patrons. Given that about half of arrested impaired drivers had their last drink at a licensed establishment, widespread implementation of this strategy has the potential to help reduce impaired driving.     

German taxi drivers' experiences and expressions of driving anger: Are the driving anger scale and the driving anger expression inventory valid measures?

Objective: The objective of this article was 2-fold: firstly, we wanted to examine whether the original Driving Anger Scale (DAS) and the original Driving Anger Expression Inventory (DAX) apply to German professional taxi drivers because these scales have previously been given to professional and particularly to nonprofessional drivers in different countries. Secondly, we wanted to examine possible differences in driving anger experience and expression between professional German taxi drivers and nonprofessional German drivers.

Methods: We applied German versions of the DAS, the DAX, and the State–Trait Anger Expression Inventory (STAXI) to a sample of 138 professional German taxi drivers. We then compared their ratings to the ratings of a sample of 1,136 nonprofessional German drivers (Oehl and Brandenburg n.d. Oehl M, Brandenburg S. Driving anger in Germany: validation of the Driving Anger Scale (DAS). Saf Sci. n.d. submitted.  [Google Scholar]).

Results: Regarding our first objective, confirmatory factor analysis shows that the model fit of the DAS is better for nonprofessional drivers than for professional drivers. The DAX applies neither to professional nor to nonprofessional German drivers properly. Consequently, we suggest modified shorter versions of both scales for professional drivers. The STAXI applies to both professional and nonprofessional drivers. With respect to our second objective, we show that professional drivers experience significantly less driving anger than nonprofessional drivers, but they express more driving anger.

Conclusions: We conclude that the STAXI can be applied to professional German taxi drivers. In contrast, for the DAS and the DAX we found particular shorter versions for professional taxi drivers. Especially for the DAX, most statements were too strong for German drivers to agree to. They do not show behaviors related to driving anger expression as they are described in the DAX. These problems with the original American DAX items are in line with several other studies in different countries. Future investigations should examine whether (professional) drivers from further countries express their anger as proposed by the DAX. In addition, professional drivers experience less driving anger (DAS) and less general trait anger (STAXI) than nonprofessional drivers, but they report more driving anger expression (DAX) and more current general state anger (STAXI). Subsequent studies should therefore focus on different types of anger within the group of professional drivers.     

A spectral power analysis of driving behavior changes during the transition from nondistraction to distraction

Objective: This article investigated and compared frequency domain and time domain characteristics of drivers' behaviors before and after the start of distracted driving.

Method: Data from an existing naturalistic driving study were used. Fast Fourier transform (FFT) was applied for the frequency domain analysis to explore drivers' behavior pattern changes between nondistracted (prestarting of visual–manual task) and distracted (poststarting of visual–manual task) driving periods. Average relative spectral power in a low frequency range (0–0.5 Hz) and the standard deviation in a 10-s time window of vehicle control variables (i.e., lane offset, yaw rate, and acceleration) were calculated and further compared. Sensitivity analyses were also applied to examine the reliability of the time and frequency domain analyses.

Results: Results of the mixed model analyses from the time and frequency domain analyses all showed significant degradation in lateral control performance after engaging in visual–manual tasks while driving. Results of the sensitivity analyses suggested that the frequency domain analysis was less sensitive to the frequency bandwidth, whereas the time domain analysis was more sensitive to the time intervals selected for variation calculations. Different time interval selections can result in significantly different standard deviation values, whereas average spectral power analysis on yaw rate in both low and high frequency bandwidths showed consistent results, that higher variation values were observed during distracted driving when compared to nondistracted driving.

Conclusions: This study suggests that driver state detection needs to consider the behavior changes during the prestarting periods, instead of only focusing on periods with physical presence of distraction, such as cell phone use. Lateral control measures can be a better indicator of distraction detection than longitudinal controls. In addition, frequency domain analyses proved to be a more robust and consistent method in assessing driving performance compared to time domain analyses.