具有趋势变异的非一致性东江流域洪水序列频率计算研究

世界众多江河洪水序列形成的环境背景“一致性”已不复存在,传统极值流量分析的“极值理论”需修正。东江流域变化环境后,龙川和河源站年最大日流量序列M-K检验通过0.01 显著水平,呈下降趋势。采用时间变化矩模型对年最大日流量序列作非一致性处理,选择5 种分布线型、8 种趋势模型共40 种模型进行比较。结果表明,龙川站对数正态分布搭配CP趋势（均值和标准差相关且具有抛物线趋势）模型、河源站Gumbel分布搭配CP趋势模型拟合效果最优。水文情势变化后,传统洪水重现期概念应该被修正。基于传统频率分析方法得到的100 a 一遇洪水设计值,均表现出其重现期由水利工程建设前小于100 a 一遇变化到2000 年后的大于400 a 一遇,而非100 a 一遇。若仍采用传统方法计算,两站均会高估设计洪水量级。非一致性背景下,推荐考虑现状时间基点下的洪水设计值。     

基于系统动力学的湖泊营养物基准参照状态研究

湖泊营养物基准参照状态的科学合理确定是营养物基准制订的重要技术基础之一,以巢湖为例,基于系统动力学仿真模型,耦合了多种数学模型对湖泊营养物的产生、分布及输移进行系统仿真,并结合系统反演方法获得湖泊过去近50年不同水文条件下的各营养物浓度演化过程及湖泊富营养化水平.结果表明:经过试验校准的系统仿真模型能够较真实地反映湖泊...     

四氯联苯在草木灰上的吸附/解吸特征及吸附动力学研究

测定分析了草木灰的孔隙结构、表面性质及化学组成,研究了PCB52在草木灰上的吸附动力学、吸附等温线及解吸等温线的特征,结果表明Freundlich方程和二级动力学方程具有较高的拟合相关系数,说明吸附可能是复杂的多层吸附过程,且明显分为快速吸附和慢速吸附2个过程。解吸等温线呈现出非线性,且有一定的滞后性。随着草木灰浓度的增加HI值减小,即解吸滞后程度减小,且在高平衡浓度的条件下表现出更小的HI值,说明其更容易从吸附剂上解吸下来。     

Effects of particle composition and environmental parameters on catalytic hydrodechlorination of trichloroethylene by nanoscale bimetallic Ni-Fe

Catalytic nickel was successfully incorporated into nanoscale iron to enhance its dechlorination efficiency for trichloroethylene （TCE）, one of the most commonly detected chlorinated organic compounds in groundwater. Ethane was the predominant product. The greatest dechlorination efficiency was achieved at 22 molar percent of nickel. This nanoscale Ni-Fe is poorly ordered and inhomogeneous; iron dissolution occurred whereas nickel was relatively stable during the 24-hr reaction. The morphological characterization provided significant new insights on the mechanism of catalytic hydrodcchlorination by bimetallic nanoparticles. TCE degradation and ethane production rates were greatly affected by environmental parameters such as solution pH, temperature and common groundwater ions. Both rate constants decreased and then increased over the pH range of 6.5 to 8.0, with the minimum value occurring at pH 7.5. TCE degradation rate constant showed an increasing trend over the temperature range of 10 to 25℃. However, ethane production rate constant increased and then decreased over the range, with the maximum value occurring at 20℃, Most salts in the solution appeared to enhance the reaction in the first half hour but overall they displayed an inhibitory effect. Combined ions showed a similar effect as individual salts.     

膜生物反应器工艺参数控制研究

以外压管式膜生物反应器和中空纤维一体式膜生物反应器处理城市污水试验为基础,对膜生物反应器工艺参数控制进行了研究。试验首次建立了曝气池容积与膜面积比的计算关系式,即V/A=J·S_O/N·X。验证了膜通量与污泥浓度的对数呈线性关系,污泥浓度愈高,膜通量愈低。还讨论了HRT和SRT对膜生物反应器生物性能以及出水水质的影响。     

重大疫情衍生社会恐慌链式灾害应急策略研究——基于COVID-19疫情的SD分析

重大疫情传染的负外部性在严重损害公众健康的同时衍生社会恐慌,这是保障人民生命安全和社会稳定的国家治理现代化背景下,一个新风险源和应急管理难题.基于灾害链视角,运用系统动力学(SD)方法对经典的传染病SIR模型进行升级与转化,构建一个同时包含疫情动态传播及其衍生社会恐慌的链式灾害应急系统模型,以COVID-19疫情为例进...     

SDS对烟煤润湿性能和机理的分子模拟研究

为探究十二烷基硫酸钠(SDS)对烟煤的润湿机理,首先通过实验分析SDS对烟煤润湿性能影响,然后利用分子模拟对SDS在烟煤表面的润湿过程进行研究。研究结果表明：SDS溶液改善烟煤的润湿性能,全尘、呼吸性粉尘降尘效率分别比纯水提高7.95%和10%;根据轨道能级差和静电势分析得出,SDS分子尾链吸附烟煤表面、头基朝向水中的吸附构型降低水和烟煤的液-固界面张力;SDS分子覆盖烟煤表面后,系统中烟煤与水分子的非键作用能、氢键数量、水分子的起始位点分别由-1 114.91 kcal/mol, 1 810个,1.59?变为-3 405.68 kcal/mol, 1 996个,1.57?,在SDS分子的作用下烟煤表面与水分子结合能力变强,大量水分子通过氢键作用凝聚在头基附近,水分子整体移向烟煤使烟煤表面得到充分的浸润和渗透。研究结果可为新型表面活性剂润湿煤尘性能检验提供参考。     

天津冬季两个典型污染过程高浓度无机气溶胶成因及来源分析

无机气溶胶是天津冬季霾天出现的主要成分,研究挑选了2020年1月污染天中两个典型的高浓度无机气溶胶（SIA）过程（CASE1和CASE2）,利用观测数据和耦合了在线污染物来源追踪方法的大气化学传输模式NAQPMS综合探究了气象要素、区域输送和化学过程的影响.两个过程的ρ（SIA）均值分别为76.8 μg·m^-3和66.0 μg·m^-3,硝酸盐浓度高于硫酸盐和铵盐,均为硝酸盐为主导的污染过程.气象条件影响了无机气溶胶的生成,CASE1过程ρ（SIA）>80 μg·m^-3对应的温度和相对湿度区间分别是[-6℃,0℃]、[2℃,4℃]和[50%,60%]、[80%,100%];CASE2过程对应的温度和相对湿度区间分别是[2℃,4℃]和[60%,70%].外来源对CASE1和CASE2过程SIA的平均贡献率为62.3%和22.1%,分别为区域传输主导和局地生成主导过程.CASE1本地排放对硝酸盐和硫酸盐的贡献分别为16.2 μg·m^-3和8.2 μg·m^-3,均高于外来源的贡献（31.7 μg·m^-3和8.8 μg·m^-3）;CASE2过程本地排放对硝酸盐和硫酸盐的贡献分别为29.3 μg·m^-3和25.1 μg·m^-3,而外来源的贡献为8.1 μg·m^-3和9.4 μg·m^-3.这表明CASE1本地生成和外来源输送贡献造成硝酸盐高于硫酸盐浓度,而CASE2仅本地源造成硝酸盐浓度高于硫酸盐.两个污染过程气相氧化反应是无机气溶胶生成的首要来源,贡献率分别为48.9%和57.8%;非均相反应也是重要过程,对SIA的贡献率分别为48.1%和42.2%;液相反应的影响小.     

中国生态环境质量与人类活动耦合机制及其影响因子

在可持续发展大背景下,深入探究中国生态环境质量与人类活动耦合机制并明确其影响因子,可为未来中国实现可持续发展目标提供一定的科学参考.运用趋势分析、耦合协调度、LMDI模型和最优参数地理探测器模型对中国生态环境质量与人类活动耦合机制进行探究和评价.结果发现:①在研究期间,中国耦合协调度、人类活动和生态环境质量均为增长趋势.人类活动和耦合协调度在空间上以胡焕庸线为界,呈现“东高西低”的分异规律.生态环境质量则表现出“南高北低”分异规律.②中国耦合协调类型转化的整体趋势为由低级向更高级的耦合协调类型转移.③基于最优参数地理探测器和LMDI模型分别发现,胡焕庸线以东绝大部分省区的耦合协调度其主导因子分别为社会经济因子和综合协调指数,该线以西绝大部分省区的耦合协调度主导因子分别为自然环境因子和耦合度.④评价人类活动变化对生态环境质量的影响,发现胡焕庸线以东主要为有利开发和有效保护类型,胡焕庸线以西主要为破坏开发和无效保护类型.胡焕庸线东西两侧地区应分别根据当地影响耦合协调度的先决条件以及人类活动和生态环境质量的相对关系,因地制宜选择优先发展地区,积极调整发展策略,走向生态环境质量与人类活动高级协调发展的可持续发展道路.     

Breeding Periodicity for Male Sea Turtles,Operational Sex Ratios,and Implications in the Face of Climate Change

Abstract: Species that have temperature‐dependent sex determination (TSD) often produce highly skewed offspring sex ratios contrary to long‐standing theoretical predictions. This ecological enigma has provoked concern that climate change may induce the production of single‐sex generations and hence lead to population extirpation. All species of sea turtles exhibit TSD, many are already endangered, and most already produce sex ratios skewed to the sex produced at warmer temperatures (females). We tracked male loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) from Zakynthos, Greece, throughout the entire interval between successive breeding seasons and identified individuals on their breeding grounds, using photoidentification, to determine breeding periodicity and operational sex ratios. Males returned to breed at least twice as frequently as females. We estimated that the hatchling sex ratio of 70:30 female to male for this rookery will translate into an overall operational sex ratio (OSR) (i.e., ratio of total number of males vs females breeding each year) of close to 50:50 female to male. We followed three male turtles for between 10 and 12 months during which time they all traveled back to the breeding grounds. Flipper tagging revealed the proportion of females returning to nest after intervals of 1, 2, 3, and 4 years were 0.21, 0.38, 0.29, and 0.12, respectively (mean interval 2.3 years). A further nine male turtles were tracked for short periods to determine their departure date from the breeding grounds. These departure dates were combined with a photoidentification data set of 165 individuals identified on in‐water transect surveys at the start of the breeding season to develop a statistical model of the population dynamics. This model produced a maximum likelihood estimate that males visit the breeding site 2.6 times more often than females (95%CI 2.1, 3.1), which was consistent with the data from satellite tracking and flipper tagging. Increased frequency of male breeding will help ameliorate female‐biased hatchling sex ratios. Combined with the ability of males to fertilize the eggs of many females and for females to store sperm to fertilize many clutches, our results imply that effects of climate change on the viability of sea turtle populations are likely to be less acute than previously suspected.