基于神经网络的闸阀模糊可靠度计算

为提高闸阀可靠度计算准确性,将模糊准则引入闸阀可靠性设计,将闸阀应力与阀体通径、内压之间隐式关系显式化,并基于神经网络构建地震工况下闸阀数学模型;利用蒙特卡洛法,计算闸阀在常规方法下的可靠度;利用正态型隶属函数描述闸阀强度的模糊性,计算闸阀在考虑模糊强度时的可靠度;对比强度的模糊性对可靠度计算结果的影响,分析不同隶属函...     

Empirical Trials of Plant Field Guides

We designed 3 image‐based field guides to tropical forest plant species in Ghana, Grenada, and Cameroon and tested them with 1095 local residents and 20 botanists in the United Kingdom. We compared users’ identification accuracy with different image formats, including drawings, specimen photos, living plant photos, and paintings. We compared users’ accuracy with the guides to their accuracy with only their prior knowledge of the flora. We asked respondents to score each format for usability, beauty, and how much they would pay for it. Prior knowledge of plant names was generally low (<22%). With a few exceptions, identification accuracy did not differ significantly among image formats. In Cameroon, users identifying sterile Cola species achieved 46–56% accuracy across formats; identification was most accurate with living plant photos. Botanists in the United Kingdom accurately identified 82–93% of the same Cameroonian species; identification was most accurate with specimens. In Grenada, users accurately identified 74–82% of plants; drawings yielded significantly less accurate identifications than paintings and photos of living plants. In Ghana, users accurately identified 85% of plants. Digital color photos of living plants ranked high for beauty, usability, and what users would pay. Black and white drawings ranked low. Our results show the potential and limitations of the use of field guides and nonspecialists to identify plants, for example, in conservation applications. We recommend authors of plant field guides use the cheapest or easiest illustration format because image type had limited bearing on accuracy; match the type of illustration to the most likely use of the guide for slight improvements in accuracy; avoid black and white formats unless the audience is experienced at interpreting illustrations or keeping costs low is imperative; discourage false‐positive identifications, which were common; and encourage users to ask an expert or use a herbarium for groups that are difficult to identify. Pruebas Empíricas de Guías de Campo de Plantas Hawthorne, Cable & Marshall     

A transportation network assessment tool for hazardous material cargo routing: Weighing exposure health risks,proximity to vulnerable areas,delay costs and trucking expenses

The inherent risks associated with accidental releases of hazardous materials during transport have drawn attention and concerns in the recent decades. The aim of this study is to propose a tool for evaluation and comparison of the transportation networks which can be used to assess the routing options between origins and destinations of the cargos for their suitability for transporting hazardous material cargos by tanker trucks and to identify routes which provide lower accidental release risks, lower public exposure risks, and offer economical benefits. Each route segment of transportation networks were evaluated using specific criteria which included health risk and cost of delay in case of an accidental release of materials, trucking cost and proximity to vulnerable areas. Since, the health impact of hazardous materials differ depending on the characteristics of the material being transported as well as release quantities and atmospheric conditions; this paper aimed in providing a tool that can be used to estimate the impact radius (for health risks) after accidental release of hazardous materials by taking into account different atmospheric conditions based on the meteorological data and solar elevation angle. The Gaussian air dispersion model paired with ArcGIS using Python programming were employed to estimate the health risk impact zones by considering the meteorological data, and accordingly to analyze road segments for cost impacts (delay and trucking costs), and the proximity to vulnerable areas. The route assessment tool was demonstrated with a case study. The results of this study can efficiently aid decision makers for transportation of hazardous materials.     

Using empirical models of species colonization under multiple threatening processes to identify complementary threat‐mitigation strategies

Approaches to prioritize conservation actions are gaining popularity. However, limited empirical evidence exists on which species might benefit most from threat mitigation and on what combination of threats, if mitigated simultaneously, would result in the best outcomes for biodiversity. We devised a way to prioritize threat mitigation at a regional scale with empirical evidence based on predicted changes to population dynamics—information that is lacking in most threat‐management prioritization frameworks that rely on expert elicitation. We used dynamic occupancy models to investigate the effects of multiple threats (tree cover, grazing, and presence of an hyperaggressive competitor, the Noisy Miner (Manorina melanocephala) on bird‐population dynamics in an endangered woodland community in southeastern Australia. The 3 threatening processes had different effects on different species. We used predicted patch‐colonization probabilities to estimate the benefit to each species of removing one or more threats. We then determined the complementary set of threat‐mitigation strategies that maximized colonization of all species while ensuring that redundant actions with little benefit were avoided. The single action that resulted in the highest colonization was increasing tree cover, which increased patch colonization by 5% and 11% on average across all species and for declining species, respectively. Combining Noisy Miner control with increasing tree cover increased species colonization by 10% and 19% on average for all species and for declining species respectively, and was a higher priority than changing grazing regimes. Guidance for prioritizing threat mitigation is critical in the face of cumulative threatening processes. By incorporating population dynamics in prioritization of threat management, our approach helps ensure funding is not wasted on ineffective management programs that target the wrong threats or species.     

Cost‐effectiveness of conservation payment schemes for species with different range sizes

Payments to compensate landowners for carrying out costly land‐use measures that benefit endangered biodiversity have become an important policy instrument. When designing such payments, it is important to take into account that spatially connected habitats are more valuable for many species than isolated ones. One way to incentivize provision of connected habitats is to offer landowners an agglomeration bonus, that is, a bonus on top of payments they are receiving to conserve land if the land is spatially connected. Researchers have compared the cost‐effectiveness of the agglomeration bonus with 2 alternatives: an all‐or‐nothing, agglomeration payment, where landowners receive a payment only if the conserved land parcels have a certain level of spatial connectivity, and a spatially homogeneous payment, where landowners receive a payment for conserved land parcels irrespective of their location. Their results show the agglomeration bonus is rarely the most cost‐effective option, and when it is, it is only slightly better than one of the alternatives. This suggests that the agglomeration bonus should not be given priority as a policy design option. However, this finding is based on consideration of only 1 species. We examined whether the same applied to 2 species, one for which the homogeneous payment is best and the other for which the agglomeration payment is most cost‐effective. We modified a published conceptual model so that we were able to assess the cost‐effectiveness of payment schemes for 2 species and applied it to a grassland bird and a grassland butterfly in Germany that require the same habitat but have different spatial‐connectivity needs. When conserving both species, the agglomeration bonus was more cost‐effective than the agglomeration and the homogeneous payment; thus, we showed that as a policy the agglomeration bonus is a useful conservation‐payment option.     

Defining the Impact of Non‐Native Species

Non‐native species cause changes in the ecosystems to which they are introduced. These changes, or some of them, are usually termed impacts; they can be manifold and potentially damaging to ecosystems and biodiversity. However, the impacts of most non‐native species are poorly understood, and a synthesis of available information is being hindered because authors often do not clearly define impact. We argue that explicitly defining the impact of non‐native species will promote progress toward a better understanding of the implications of changes to biodiversity and ecosystems caused by non‐native species; help disentangle which aspects of scientific debates about non‐native species are due to disparate definitions and which represent true scientific discord; and improve communication between scientists from different research disciplines and between scientists, managers, and policy makers. For these reasons and based on examples from the literature, we devised seven key questions that fall into 4 categories: directionality, classification and measurement, ecological or socio‐economic changes, and scale. These questions should help in formulating clear and practical definitions of impact to suit specific scientific, stakeholder, or legislative contexts. Definiendo el Impacto de las Especies No‐Nativas     

Local Perceptions of Changes in Traditional Ecological Knowledge: A Case Study from Malekula Island,Vanuatu

Traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) is a critical global resource that may be eroding amid social and environmental change. Here, we present data on local perceptions of TEK change from three communities on Malekula Island in Vanuatu. Utilizing a structured interview (n = 120), we find a common perception of TEK loss. Participants defined two key periods of TEK erosion (roughly 1940–1960 and 1980–present), and noted that TEK decline was driven both external (e.g., church) and internal (e.g., shifting values) processes. Erosion was perceived to more comprehensive in the worldview domain than in aspects of ethnobiological knowledge and practice. These data indicate the perceived fragility of TEK systems and the complexity of TEK change. TEK systems are critical to natural resource management, and data such as these will assist in designing nuanced responses to the ongoing loss of cultural knowledge and practice.     

The role of digital data entry in participatory environmental monitoring

Many argue that monitoring conducted exclusively by scientists is insufficient to address ongoing environmental challenges. One solution entails the use of mobile digital devices in participatory monitoring (PM) programs. But how digital data entry affects programs with varying levels of stakeholder participation, from nonscientists collecting field data to nonscientists administering every step of a monitoring program, remains unclear. We reviewed the successes, in terms of management interventions and sustainability, of 107 monitoring programs described in the literature (hereafter programs) and compared these with case studies from our PM experiences in Australia, Canada, Ethiopia, Ghana, Greenland, and Vietnam (hereafter cases). Our literature review showed that participatory programs were less likely to use digital devices, and 2 of our 3 more participatory cases were also slow to adopt digital data entry. Programs that were participatory and used digital devices were more likely to report management actions, which was consistent with cases in Ethiopia, Greenland, and Australia. Programs engaging volunteers were more frequently reported as ongoing, but those involving digital data entry were less often sustained when data collectors were volunteers. For the Vietnamese and Canadian cases, sustainability was undermined by a mismatch in stakeholder objectives. In the Ghanaian case, complex field protocols diminished monitoring sustainability. Innovative technologies attract interest, but the foundation of effective participatory adaptive monitoring depends more on collaboratively defined questions, objectives, conceptual models, and monitoring approaches. When this foundation is built through effective partnerships, digital data entry can enable the collection of more data of higher quality. Without this foundation, or when implemented ineffectively or unnecessarily, digital data entry can be an additional expense that distracts from core monitoring objectives and undermines project sustainability. The appropriate role of digital data entry in PM likely depends more on the context in which it is used and less on the technology itself.     

大庆市草原和湖泊生态保护建设研究

通过对大庆草甸草原和湖泊湿地发生发展自然生态过程的分析,以大庆生态环境的整体性特征为基础,提出草甸草原是大庆生态环境的基础,湖泊湿地是大庆生态环境的特色.以保护和恢复为主巩固草原生态基础地位,以生态重建为主突出湖泊湿地特色.对生态功能正常发挥的草原,以生态保护为主,对生态功能退化草原,以生态恢复为主.对油田生产区的草原,重视生态功能和景观效应.以生态重建为主突出湖泊湿地特色,通过地表水结构的调整增加生态系统的活力和生态服务功能.草甸草原和湖泊湿地的保护与利用要扬长补短、协同并进.     

东北三省畜禽养殖类固醇激素排放及其潜在污染风险

以东北三省畜禽养殖数量统计数据和养殖结构分析为基础,对黑龙江、吉林和辽宁省畜禽养殖类固醇激素排放量进行了估算,并初步探讨了畜禽粪便中类固醇激素对当地水体的潜在污染风险.结果表明,由于养殖数量的增加,东北三省畜禽粪便所排放的类固醇激素量均持续增大.在1998～2008年的10 a间,辽宁、吉林和黑龙江三省的类固醇激素排放量分别增长了2 272.7、1 951.1和1 634.8 kg,并且省会城市沈阳、长春和哈尔滨的增长最为明显.东北三省各城市中畜禽粪便类固醇雌激素排放量最大的是长春,达到874.7 kg;哈尔滨和沈阳的排放量在各自省份中也是最大,分别为652.7 kg和603.1 kg·辽宁省的畜禽类固醇激素排放总量在东北三省为最多,所排放类固醇雌激素的雌二醇等当量浓度EEQs预测值也最高,达到17.1ng·L-1.如果以英国环保署(Environment Agency,United Kingdom)建议的最低可观测效应浓度10 ng·L-1为参考依据,辽宁省在目前的畜禽养殖规模和结构下,所排放的粪便类固醇雌激素极有可能会对地表水体中的水生生物产生内分泌干扰效应.