Marine Ecological Research in New Zealand: Developing Predictive Models through the Study of No-Take Marine Reserves

Abstract:  New Zealand established its first no-take marine reserve more than 25 years ago. Twenty no-take marine reserves have now been created, although few of these are considered comparable. We considered whether existing conceptual models of population and community structure based only on data from exploited systems lack the baseline information of natural states necessary to make accurate predictions for new reserves. Three of the oldest and best-studied reserves are situated on the northeastern coast of New Zealand. These reserves are considered broadly comparable replicates, and research has shown the recovery of previously exploited predator populations and the reestablishment of trophic controls over community structure and productivity. None of the major changes was predicted when the reserves were created. All the observations from and experimental tests of hypotheses in these three ecologically comparable reserves have provided predictive models for future reserves. Recent surveys in newly created reserves, however, suggest that these models are bioregion and habitat specific. In these new reserves the recovery of previously exploited predators was predicted but did not always occur. Where trends were correctly predicted, the speed and amplitude of the changes were not accurately predicted. Research in New Zealand suggests that it is not yet possible to predict explicit outcomes for newly created reserves and less possible to predict detailed results for systems of reserves. Results from a representative system of reserves, including all major habitats within all bioregions and broadly comparable reserves, are needed. Such a system will enable the range and variety of natural ecosystem dynamics to be investigated and provide the controls necessary to measure the effects of exploitation.     

黄河上游玛曲生态系统服务价值的估算和生态环境管理的政策设计

黄河上游玛曲草地生态系统的保护对整个黄河流域的生态安全意义重大。本文参考Costanza等人提出的方法和谢高地等人的研究成果估算了玛曲的生态系统服务价值，结果为96.25亿元／年，远高于经济产品1.93亿元／年的现价。基于草地资源可持续利用和牧民生活水平不断改善的要求，提出了以改变超载过牧为目标、以生态补偿为核心内容的草地生态系统管理的政策设计，生态补偿的标准应不少于0.93亿元／年。生态环境管理的政策内容主要包括：产业开发和产业转型、生态移民和牧民定居、草场管理、技术推广以及控制人口过快增长和促进社会进步等。     

城市可持续发展的关键自然资本研究

城市是社会、经济与环境相互作用最为集中与深刻的区域，随着城市环境问题的日益严重，城市可持续发展成为共同关注的焦点。自然资本在可持续发展体系中起到关键的作用，因此，识别城市系统的关键自然资本是实现城市可持续发展的前提。通过分析城市绿色空间的生态服务功能，结果表明绿色空间是影响城市可持续发展的重要的自然资本。在此基础上，提出了通过保护与投资于绿色空间两种途径实现城市可持续发展的措施与建议。     

大江大河从“公共资源”到“公地悲剧”演变的内在机理分析

江河提供了非常丰富的“非排它性”资源服务，因此容易陷入“公地悲剧”。历史上对长江、黄河等江河所提供的多维度要素资源价值理论认识上的滞后及误区，是引发此类江河向“公地悲剧”演变的基础性原因。现行的江河管理体制不能有效地协调中央与地方、地方与地方、部门与部门之间的资源行为及利益关系，从而诱发了地方等主体对江河资源的不相容使用和过度进入，而成为加速推进这一演变进程的制度性根源。在这一体制下，地方在与中央的博弈中，谋求当期地方收益的最大化；地方之间的财政逆向转移与升职竞争博弈，加剧了地方的行为扭曲；部门之间的边界模糊与势力竞争博弈，诱发了部门的行为扭曲。只有创立新的江河管理体制，才能规范地方等主体的行为，避免江河的“公地悲剧”命运。     

东北农牧交错带典型区土地利用变化及其生态效应

东北农牧交错带是典型的生态环境脆弱区，具有敏感性强、退化趋势明显等生态脆弱性特征。本文利用1986、2002年两期TM/ETM影像，揭示了吉林西部16年来土地利用／覆被的时空变化规律，并依据Costanza R．等人对全球生态系统服务价值的评估方法。分析了土地利用变化对区域生态系统服务价值的影响。结果表明：16年来，吉林西部土地利用／覆被发生了剧烈变化。耕地、盐碱地面积大幅度增加，草地、水域和湿地的面积大幅度减少，区域生态系统服务功能出现明显的衰退。生态系统服务价值显著地减少。吉林西部生态系统服务价值由1986年的767．1亿元／a下降到2002年的624．1亿元／a，减少幅度达18．6％，年均递减速率达1．6％。16年来该区域生态环境恶化和以经济利益为目的的土地利用结构调整，给区域生态系统服务功能和可持续发展能力带来巨大负面影响。     

深圳宝安区土地利用变化的环境影响研究

采用深圳宝安区1996-2004年的土地利用数据及其逐日降雨量资料，应用Costanza关于生态系统服务价值方面的研究成果，对该区域土地利用变化导致的生态服务价值进行了计算；应用SCS模型对该区主要污染物氨氮（NH4-N）、总磷（TP）以及高锰酸盐指数（CODMn）的面源污染负荷的变化进行了定量分析。结果表明：1996～2004年期间，土地利用变化导致区域总体生态服务功能下降了31．36%；氨氮和CODMn的面源污染负荷分别增加了4．12%、5．73%，总磷的面源污染负荷减少了1．64％。进一步对三种土地利用规划供选方案（2004-2020年）的环境影响进行了分析。在不同规划方案下，到2020年，宝安区总体生态服务功能将比2004年下降3．79％、10．97％和30．76％。但其下降速度都将得到明显遏止；氨氮、总磷和CODMn的面源污染负荷也将有较明显的增加，且皆以规划方案1增加最小,方案2居中，方案3增加最大。     

农牧交错带农业生态服务功能的作用及其保护途径

目前全球农业生产覆盖全球25％～30％的土地面积，约50％的可利用土地已经被农业占据。如果农业生态系统．特别是生态脆弱区的系统服务功能得不到恢复与保护．那将会拖全球环境保护的“后腿”。由于中国的国情决定了在生态脆弱区环境保护中必须坚持环境保护与发展农业生产“两手抓“。因此．农业生态系统服务功能的恢复、维持应该成为该地区生态环境保护与建设的重要组成部分。农业生产不仅要提高生态系统服务的产品功能，更要恢复和维持其各种维持生命的间接服务功能。本文在分析农业生态系统服务功能退化表现与影响因素的基础上．提出了针对各项服务功能的恢复与维持对策。     

Elementary Structural Units of the Biosphere

Russian Journal of Ecology -     

Negative Off‐Site Impacts of Ecological Restoration: Understanding and Addressing the Conflict

Abstract: Ecological restoration is a key component of biological conservation. Nevertheless, unlike protection of existing areas, restoration changes existing land use and can therefore be more controversial. Some restoration projects negatively affect surrounding landowners, creating social constraints to restoration success. Just as negative off‐site impacts (i.e., negative externalities) flow from industrial areas to natural areas, restoration projects can generate negative externalities for commercial land uses, such as agriculture. Negative externalities from industry have led to government regulation to prevent human health and environmental impacts. Negative externalities from restoration projects have elicited similar legal constraint on at least one large‐scale conservation project, riparian restoration in the Sacramento River Conservation Area. The negative externalities of restoration that are perceived to be the direct result of specific goals, such as endangered species management, are likely to be more contentious than externalities arising from unintended phenomena such as weed invasion. Restoration planners should give equal consideration to off‐site characteristics as to on‐site characteristics when choosing sites for restoration and designing projects. Efforts to control externalities can lead to off‐site ecological benefits.     

上海滩涂后备土地资源及其可持续开发途径

上海潮滩土地资源十分丰富,高程2m以上的滩涂面积为266km2,0m以上滩涂面积为896km2,-2m以上的滩涂面积为1513km2,-5m以上的滩涂面积达2699km2。这些淤积潮滩每年以20～350m的速度不断地向海淤涨。但以自然淤涨的速度与上海市建设需求的土地相比,仍然入不敷出。据统计,近50年来上海市圈围土地8.0×102km2,而城市建设占用农业耕地面积15×102km2。因此,必须通过人工促淤途径,加速中、低滩沼泽化和围涂造地的速度,扩大土地面积来满足上海城市建设和经济发展所需。但是,滩涂的开发要适度,要遵循自然演变的基本规律,同时需要与河口的综合开发治理和生态修复相结合。