陕西省经济增长与碳排放关系的实证研究

研究使用协整检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数等计量方法,本文基于相关理论,应用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解对陕西省碳排放与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究,对陕西省1993年-2012年的相关数据进行实证分析,结果表明:陕西省的经济增长和碳排放量之间,存在长期均衡的关系,且经济增长对碳排放量的增加有着正向的拉动作用,陕西省应该通过优化产业结构和提高能源利用率来推动低碳经济的发展.     

基于Urban-RAM模型的上海居民生活碳排放研究

随着全球对碳排放相关研究的不断深入,居民生活引起的能源消耗和碳排放问题引起了研究人员越来越多的关注,但目前鲜有对上海市居民生活整体碳排放的系统研究.本文以2010年为基准年,引入美国劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室开发的Urban-RAM模型,对上海市居民生活碳排放情况进行定量分析,旨在初步掌握上海市居民生活碳排放的总体规模和结构特征,为上海市低碳城市建设和相关决策提供科学依据.研究结果表明,上海市2010年居民生活碳排放总量(CO2e)为4985.7万t,主要以间接排放为主,间接碳排放和直接碳排放分别占居民生活碳排放总量的64.1%和35.9%;上海市居民生活碳排放在各个消费领域的分布不均,直接碳排放主要来自公共和居住建筑领域,该领域的直接碳排量为1065.0万t,占全市居民生活直接碳排放总量的59.5%;间接碳排放主要来自家庭消费领域,该领域的间接碳排量为1625.2万t,占全市居民生活间接碳排放总量的50.9%,其中以食品消费和衣装消费的贡献最大,分别占家庭消费领域碳排放总量的53.5%和29.5%;综合来看,公共和居住建筑领域的整体碳排量最大,为2231.6万t,占全市居民生活碳排放总量的44.8%.     

面向排放量化的低速区间机动车比功率分布特性与模型

随着排放建模方法从基于行驶周期和平均速度演变为基于VSP(Vehicle Specific Power)参数,利用VSP分布刻画交通状态成为最新的研究需求.近期研究中,针对城市快速路上大于20 km·h-1的速度区间建立了基于平均行程速度的VSP分布数学模型,却未对低速区间的VSP分布特征作深入研究.基于北京快速路大量逐秒浮动车数据,研究0～20 km·h-1的VSP分布与平均行程速度的关系.通过分析大量逐秒浮动数据的VSP分布与平均速度间关系,发现VSP分布与平均行程速度具有规律性:各VSP分布的峰值出现在VSP Bin=0处,且随速度的增加单调递减.因此,针对VSP分布的正、负区间以及VSP Bin=0处分别建立数学模型,并利用该模型进行机动车油耗/排放测算.对比分析油耗/排放的预测值和实测值得出,所建立的VSP分布模型可以有效用于机动车油耗/排放测算.     

珠江三角洲机动车挥发性有机物排放化学成分谱研究

根据珠三角地区机动车挥发性有机物排放(VOCs)贡献特征,选取在用轻型汽油车、轻型柴油车、液化石油气(LPG)出租车和摩托车,采用底盘测功机及实际道路测试,获取了以上车型尾气排放的VOCs化学成分(59种非甲烷碳氢化合物)特征谱.轻型汽油车以及摩托车的尾气组成中芳香烃含量最高,其次为烷烃;苯系物、异戊烷以及乙烯占轻型汽油车尾气VOCs组成的54.5%;苯系物、异戊烷以及乙炔占摩托车尾气组成的54.6%.轻型柴油车的尾气组成中烷烃比例最高,其次是芳香烃和烯炔烃.除了苯和甲苯,正十一烷、正十二烷、正癸烷、乙烯、丙烯、1-丁烯亦在柴油车尾气中占有重要比例(41.2%).LPG出租车尾气组成以丙烷、正丁烷、异丁烷为主,并伴有较高比例的1,2,4-三甲基苯、1,2,3-三甲基苯和甲苯.与类似研究比较结果表明:由于在油品、排放标准及采样与分析方法等方面的差异,机动车排放源成分谱相关研究结果仍存在一定的差异性,建议对机动车成分谱研究在尾气采样与分析方法等方面进行规范化和标准化.     

基于多因素灰色预测模型的生活污水量预测研究

生活污水作为城市水环境的主要污染源,进行生活污水排放量的预测是十分必要的.污水排放量预测方法有多种,不同的方法有各自不同的特点.为提高预测精度,采用灰色预测与多元线性回归相结合的方法,综合各种因素建立多因素灰色预测模型.并以人口和人均纯收入作为影响因素,将该模型应用于苏州横泾街道生活污水排放量的趋势预测中.结果表明：该模型能反映系统的实际情况,建模精度高,平均相对误差只有0.069 8％,值得在污水排放预测中推广应用.     

天山北坡经济带工业碳排放影响因素实证分析

在天山北麓9个州(市、地区)2002-2011年工业能源消费量、人口等数据基础上,利用LMDI法对该地区工业碳排放影响因素进行实证分析,结果表明,经济发展水平、工业化水平、人口规模是天山北坡经济带工业碳排放增加的拉动因素。工业能源强度和工业能源消费结构的变化是天山北坡经济带工业碳排放增加的抑制因素。总体来说,该地区抑制因素的抑制作用远小于拉动因素的拉动作用,工业碳排放量呈现增加趋势。     

海南省能源消费和碳排放预测研究

以海南省1993—2012年能源消费总量、人口、国民生产总值和工业比重作为研究对象,应用协整理论建立它们之间的关系,并预测不同经济增长情景下2015—2020年海南省能源消费总量和能源消费结构。在此基础上,借助相关方法预测碳排放量,最后根据海南的实际情况提出减排政策建议。     

Effects of introducing energy recovery processes to the municipal solid waste management system in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

Currently, most developing countries have not set up municipal solid waste management systemswith a viewof recovering energy fromwaste or reducing greenhouse gasemissions. In this article, we have studied the possible effects of introducing three energy recovery processes either as a single or combination approach, refuse derived fuel production, incineration and waste power generation, and methane gas recovery from landfill and power generation in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, as a case study. We concluded that incineration process is the most suitable as first introduction of energy recovery. To operate it efficiently, 3Rs strategies need to be promoted. And then, RDF production which is made of waste papers and plastics in high level of sortingmay be considered as the second step of energy recovery. However, safety control and marketability of RDF will be required at that moment.     

Methane and nitrous oxide emissions from a subtropical coastal embayment (Moreton Bay,Australia)

Surface water methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) concentrations and fluxes were investigated in two subtropical coastal embayments (Bramble Bay and Deception Bay, which are part of the greater Moreton Bay, Australia). Measurements were done at 23 stations in seven campaigns covering different seasons during 2010–2012. Water–air fluxes were estimated using the Thin Boundary Layer approach with a combination of wind and currents-based models for the estimation of the gas transfer velocities. The two bays were strong sources of both CH₄ and N₂O with no significant differences in the degree of saturation of both gases between them during all measurement campaigns. Both CH₄ and N₂O concentrations had strong temporal but minimal spatial variability in both bays. During the seven seasons, CH₄ varied between 500% and 4000% saturation while N₂O varied between 128 and 255% in the two bays. Average seasonal CH₄ fluxes for the two bays varied between 0.5 ± 0.2 and 6.0 ± 1.5 mg CH₄/(m²·day) while N₂O varied between 0.4 ± 0.1 and 1.6 ± 0.6 mg N₂O/(m²·day). Weighted emissions (t CO₂-e) were 63%–90% N₂O dominated implying that a reduction in N₂O inputs and/or nitrogen availability in the bays may significantly reduce the bays' greenhouse gas (GHG) budget. Emissions data for tropical and subtropical systems is still scarce. This work found subtropical bays to be significant aquatic sources of both CH₄ and N₂O and puts the estimated fluxes into the global context with measurements done from other climatic regions.     

Characterization of odorous charge and photochemical reactivity of VOC emissions from a full-scale food waste treatment plant in China

Food waste treatment plants (FWTPs) are usually associated with odorous nuisance and health risks, which are partially caused by volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions. This study investigated the VOC emissions from a selected full-scale FWTP in China. The feedstock used in this plant was mainly collected from local restaurants. For a year, the FWTP was closely monitored on specific days in each season. Four major indoor treatment units of the plant, including the storage room, sorting/crushing room, hydrothermal hydrolysis unit, and aerobic fermentation unit, were chosen as the monitoring locations. The highest mean concentration of total VOC emissions was observed in the aerobic fermentation unit at 21,748.2-31,283.3 μg/m³, followed by the hydrothermal hydrolysis unit at 10,798.1-23,144.4 μg/m³. The detected VOC families included biogenic compounds (oxygenated compounds, hydrocarbons, terpenes, and organosulfur compounds) and abiogenic compounds (aromatic hydrocarbons and halocarbons). Oxygenated compounds, particularly alcohols, were the most abundant compounds in all samples. With the use of odor index analysis and principal components analysis, the hydrothermal hydrolysis and aerobic fermentation units were clearly distinguished from the pre-treatment units, as characterized by their higher contributions to odorous nuisance. Methanthiol was the dominant odorant in the hydrothermal hydrolysis unit, whereas aldehyde was the dominant odorant in the aerobic fermentation unit. Terpenes, specifically limonene, had the highest level of propylene equivalent concentration during the monitoring periods. This concentration can contribute to the increase in the atmospheric reactivity and ozone formation potential in the surrounding air.