汶川大地震余震等待时间序列——基于混沌理论的研究

根据混沌理论,对汶川大地震余震等待时间通过相空间重构,应用互信息法、Cao方法确定出重构参数,并分别计算了该序列的关联维、最大Lyapunov指数以及Kolmogorov熵等特征量。结果表明汶川大地震余震等待时间序列中存在明显的混沌特性,是非线性混沌动力系统演化的结果;并对余震等待时间序列的混沌性态及其产生的根源进行了简单的探索。研究结果可进一步研究汶川大地震余震等待时间序列的复杂性、演化规律及预测参考。     

Analysis of aerobic granular sludge formation based on grey system theory

Based on grey entropy analysis,the relational grade of operational parameters with aerobic granular sludge’s granulation indicators was studied.The former consisted of settling time(ST),aeration time(AT),superficial gas velocity(SGV),height/diameter(H/D) ratio and organic loading rates(OLR),the latter included sludge volume index(SVI) and set-up time.The calculated result showed that for SVI and set-up time,the influence orders and the corresponding grey entropy relational grades(GERG) were:SGV(0.9935) > AT(0.9921) > OLR(0.9894) > ST(0.9876) > H/D(0.9857) and SGV(0.9928) > H/D(0.9914) > AT(0.9909) > OLR(0.9897) > ST(0.9878).The chosen parameters were all key impact factors as each GERG was larger than 0.98.SGV played an important role in improving SVI transformation and facilitating the set-up process.The influence of ST on SVI and set-up time was relatively low due to its dual functions.SVI transformation and rapid set-up demanded different optimal H/D ratio scopes(10-20 and 16-20).Meanwhile,different functions could be obtained through adjusting certain factors’ scope.     

湘江沉积物镉和汞质量基准的建立及其应用

沉积物质量基准是保护底栖生物免受污染物危害的保护性临界水平,可用来评估与沉积物结合的污染物的影响,并为底栖生物保护和沉积物的科学管理提供依据.分析了湘江43个采样点沉积物、上覆水、间隙水和植物中Cd和Hg含量,选取钩虾做沉积物毒理实验,利用相平衡分配法、加标毒理实验法和背景值法确定湘江沉积物Cd和Hg质量基准低值(SQC-L)分别为1.89 mg·kg-1和0.13 mg·kg-1,基准高值(SQC-H)分别为28.32 mg·kg-1和0.79 mg·kg-1.经与国内外基准值比较,并与底栖生物监测数据和植物监测数据对比分析,表明确定的基准值合理.应用该基准值评价湘江沉积物质量现状发现,湘江沉积物Cd和Hg含量低于SQC-L和高于SQC-H的采样点所占比例较低,74.4%和76.7%的采样点沉积物Cd和Hg含量在SQC-L和SQC-H之间.     

Towards a relational paradigm in sustainability research,practice, and education

Relational thinking has recently gained increasing prominence across academic disciplines in an attempt to understand complex phenomena in terms of constitutive processes and relations. Interdisciplinary fields of study, such as science and technology studies (STS), the environmental humanities, and the posthumanities, for example, have started to reformulate academic understanding of nature-cultures based on relational thinking. Although the sustainability crisis serves as a contemporary backdrop and in fact calls for such innovative forms of interdisciplinary scholarship, the field of sustainability research has not yet tapped into the rich possibilities offered by relational thinking. Against this background, the purpose of this paper is to identify relational approaches to ontology, epistemology, and ethics which are relevant to sustainability research. More specifically, we analyze how relational approaches have been understood and conceptualized across a broad range of disciplines and contexts relevant to sustainability to identify and harness connections and contributions for future sustainability-related work. Our results highlight common themes and patterns across relational approaches, helping to identify and characterize a relational paradigm within sustainability research. On this basis, we conclude with a call to action for sustainability researchers to co-develop a research agenda for advancing this relational paradigm within sustainability research, practice, and education.     

铁路行车事故预测方法分析与比较

对铁路行车事故的特点和类型进行分析;根据美国铁路2005年安全年报提供的数据,运用灰色系统理论和BP神经网络方法建立铁路行车事故的预测模型;利用MATLAB软件进行预测仿真,比较和分析两种预测方法的精度及特点。结果表明:灰色系统理论预测结果固定,短期效果比较好;BP神经网络预测具有适应性和灵活性,适用于长期预测。采用灰色系统理论和BP神经网络进行铁路行车事故的预测,克服了传统数学统计预测方法中建立复杂的数学模型,预测准确性低的缺点,对预防和控制铁路事故的发生,降低事故损失具有现实意义。     

可持续发展目标下的清洁发展机制项目评价

清洁发展机制（CDM）是《京都议定书》规定的发达国家和发展中国家之间项目级的合作机制，CDM项目的目标之一是促进发展中国家的可持续发展。在京都议定书最终生效的背景下．CDM项目的开发与能力建设成为热点。本文基于多目标决革理论。讨论CDM促进可持续发展与否的评价方法。以国际最新的研究为基础。作者构建了CDM项目可持续评价的指标化体系。建立了评价过程。并将其应用刭具体的案例——内蒙古辉腾锡勒风电CDM项目的评价中。研究可以为中国的CDM潜在项目的选择、比较和批准等实践活动提供定量的方法和思路。这对于中国成为CDM国际合作中的重要参与者以及促进中国的可持续发展都具有重要的意义。     

双二元经济结构下的生态建设补偿机制

双二元经济是我国生态建设补偿机制面临的根本约束条件。首先简要回顾了我国双二元经济的形成逻辑同环境污染现状之间的内在联系。指出我国政府在建国初期所采取的赶超战略和改革开放后的地区不平衡发展战略是联系二者的历史渊源。在此基础上构建的博弈模型表明。在双二元经济结构的约束条件下。生态建设供给的博弈均衡应是由东部发达地区和城市先进部门承担绝大部分甚至是全部的生态建设成本。因此。我国生态建设补偿机制的构建方向就应该是构建一个有效完善的跨区域、跨部门的生态建设补偿机制。以平衡生态建设者和生态建设收益者之间的成本和收益，这是保障生态建设可持续发展的关键。     

基于区域化过程的边缘地区发展模式——以南阳市为例

边缘地区的发展问题一直是区域研究中的重点和难点，研究其发展轨迹、机理对于促进经济相对滞后的边缘区域发展具有重要意义。以豫鄂两省交界地区的南阳地区为例，在实地调研基础上，对其处于“核心→边缘”中的区域化过程进行阐述，采用区位商和“三轴图”产业重心方〖JP2〗法对其边缘化过程进行分析，针对南阳地区实际发展状况，提出未来解决边缘化的主要发展模式：（1）“CI”区域形象设计，推行区域形象发展模式；（2）“特色农产品＋农户＋中介＋（市场）明星企业”的农业产业化模式、“特色资源+生态工业园”的工业发展模式；（3）以旅游和物流为主的交通驱动型第三产业发展模式，通过特色模式带动地区经济快速高效发展，以期为南阳地区及同类区域发展提供有益建议。     

Circular Economy Development Mode Based on System Theory

The paper tries to explore circular economy from the viewpoint of the system theory. Circular economy is a kind of complicated economic activity, and it is a wholly new ecotype economy proposed by Western countries after they had summed up many experiences and lessons from traditional economy. It is an entirety and has many layers. It keeps an open and dynamic balance. Because the system theory is the theoretical foundation of circular economy, we should systemically analyze and study circular economy from the macroscopic view, correctly grasp its operational laws, improve its service functions, and realize human beings＇ sustainable development. The paper introduces the content and general characteristics of the system theory and the idea of circular economy. Then it analyzes circular economy based on the system theory. The paper concludes that the integration of circular economy and the system theory can promote the functions of circular economy.     

可持续发展理论在人类认识史上引起的七大变化

可持续发展理论，是人类与自然界和谐发展的理论，是人类于20世纪末在总结成功的实践和失败的教训的基础上形成的一个崭新的发展观念，本文详细论述了可持续发展理论在人类认识史上引起的七大变化。