Streamflow Hydrology Estimate Using Machine Learning (SHEM)

Continuity and accuracy of near real‐time streamflow gauge (streamgage) data are critical for flood forecasting, assessing imminent risk, and implementing flood mitigation activities. Without these data, decision makers and first responders are limited in their ability to effectively allocate resources, implement evacuations to save lives, and reduce property losses. The Streamflow Hydrology Estimate using Machine Learning (SHEM) is a new predictive model for providing accurate and timely proxy streamflow data for inoperative streamgages. SHEM relies on machine learning (“training”) to process and interpret large volumes (“big data”) of historic complex hydrologic information. Continually updated with real‐time streamflow data, the model constructs a virtual dataset index of correlations and groups (clusters) of relationship correlations between selected streamgages in a watershed and under differing flow conditions. Using these datasets, SHEM interpolates estimated discharge and time data for any indexed streamgage that stops transmitting data. These estimates are continuously tested, scored, and revised using multiple regression analysis processes and methodologies. The SHEM model was tested in Idaho and Washington in four diverse watersheds, and the model's estimates were then compared to the actual recorded data for the same time period. Results from all watersheds revealed a high correlation, validating both the degree of accuracy and reliability of the model.     

尾矿坝地震液化评价可靠度模型及应用

为适应计算参数本身具有的随机性和未确知性,将可靠度理论引入尾矿坝地震液化评价中。以测试数据的统计分析结果为基础,应用一次二阶矩法建立尾矿坝地震液化分析可靠度模型,探讨了可靠度指标与抗液化安全系数之间的关系,并将该模型应用到某尾矿坝地震液化分析中。结果表明,新建可靠度模型各参数的物理意义与统计指标明确,相比传统的确定性分析方法,不仅能判断液化的发生与否,还能给出液化发生的概率;可靠度理论在液化分析中能更好地考虑计算参数的变异性,进一步完善了尾矿坝地震液化分析理论,为进行基于风险分析的尾矿坝抗震设计和地震安全评价提供更全面的依据。     

Radioactive Isotopes of Strontium,Caesium and Plutonium in Sediments of the Northern Adriatic Sea

Changes in nitrification rates of an acid grassland soil with and without air drying have been monitored over 9 days, after first flushing native nitrate from the soils with deionised water. The results confirmed that full re-establishment of nitrification after air drying takes several days, supporting the hypothesis that any immediate first flush of nitrate from air-dried soils originates from cell lysis or flushing of ‘stored’ nitrate. Ammonium spiking confirmed that nitrification was not ammonium substrate limited. It was also found that ammonium accumulates in the soil during the drying process, providing a substrate pool once the population of nitrifiers has re-established. Over the first week of incubation, nitrate immobilisation was less conspicuous in the soil that had been rewetted after air drying compared with the incubated field moist soil.     

Uptake and transformation of perchlorate by vascular plants

Phytoremediation is a promising new method that uses green plants to cleanse soil and water contaminated with organic or inorganic pollutants. In this study, the uptake and transformation of sodium perchlorate (NaClO₄) using four vascular plant species were examined in batch experiments. The species include two trees, cabbage gum (Eucalyptus amplifolia) and eastern cottonwood (Populus deltoides), a herbaceous wetland plant, perennial glasswort (Salicornia virginica), and a herbaceous aquatic plant, waterweed (Elodea canadensis). Perchlorate was depleted from solution in the presence of all but one species (waterweed). Depletion was calculated as a first‐order kinetics reaction with k values in the range of 0–0.013 per day and accumulation of perchlorate was between 3.2 and 3138 mg/kg. Perchlorate and transformation metabolites (chlorate, chlorite, chloride) were observed in all plant tissues (e.g., roots, stems, leaves) analyzed. Results suggest that significant influences on perchlorate uptake include: (1) plant species present, (2) concentration of perchlorate, (3) sand versus hydroponic treatments, (4) the presence or absence of plant nutrients or competing ions, (5) stage of plant maturity.     

城市流域降雨径流水质特性及初期冲刷现象

为了解城市流域降雨径流水质特性及其初期冲刷现象,以重庆市盘溪河流域和虎溪流域为研究对象,对6场降雨径流进行监测. 结果表明:各场次降雨中,城市流域降雨径流污染物浓度均呈抛物线型分布;在所监测的6场降雨中,盘溪河流域ρ(TSS)(TSS为总悬浮物)、ρ(COD_Cr)、ρ(TN)、ρ(TP)平均值分别为2 000、420、13.0、5.7 mg/L,虎溪流域ρ(TSS)、ρ(COD_Cr)、ρ(TN)、ρ(NH₃-N)、ρ(NO₃--N)、ρ(TP)、ρ(Fe)、ρ(Zn)、ρ(Pb)、ρ(Cd)的平均值分别为33、38、2.6、0.7、1.1、0.1、2.1、0.2、0.6、0.06 mg/L. 在盘溪河流域和虎溪流域降雨径流中,磷均以颗粒态为主(分别占56%和87%),氮均以无机氮为主(分别占72%和82%). 盘溪河流域未发现明显的初期冲刷现象,虎溪流域初期40%的径流携带了50%~80%的污染负荷. 降雨径流流量分析表明,单峰降雨事件的峰值流量取决于且滞后于峰值雨强,多峰降雨事则件往往导致多峰流量响应.      

山西省近50年无霜期变化特征研究

根据山西省108个地面站近50 a（1959—2008年）的初霜日、终霜日和无霜期系列数据,采用非参数Mann-Kendall检验法,对山西省近50 a无霜期的变化特点进行了研究。计算结果表明,全省108个地面站的平均无霜期在124.6~232.9 d之间。Mann-Kendall检验结果显示,在所有地面站中,77个站初霜日推后,78个站终霜日提前,87个站无霜期延长,其中35个站显著延长。全省初霜日显著推后（＋1.41 d/10 a）,终霜日显著提前（-2.57 d/10 a）,无霜期显著延长（＋3.72 d/10 a）。初霜日推后和终霜日提前对无霜期延长的贡献约分别为1/3和2/3。Pearson相关分析证明,在全省范围内,初霜日、终霜日和无霜期与年平均气温、纬度和海拔具有密切关系。直线回归分析显示,气温每升高1℃,初霜日迟4.7 d,终霜日早4.1 d,无霜期延长8.8 d。纬度每北移1o,初霜日早6.1 d;终霜日迟4.5 d;无霜期短10.6 d。海拔每升高100 m,初霜日早3.4 d;终霜日迟2.8 d;无霜期短6.2 d。对初霜日、终霜日和无霜期这些特点的认识,对本区自然和人工生态系统管理、生态恢复和生态工程实施等具有重要意义。     

雨水口流域径流水质水量动态模拟

雨水口水质水量过程线的推求是建立城市雨水径流水质水量动态模型的关键,文章将产污机理应用于雨水口流域,建立了雨水口流域径流水质、水量动态模型,并根据三场降雨资料对雨水口流域水质、水量入流过程以及初冲效应做了动态模拟,所得过程线与实测值比较接近,验证了模型的有效性。     

企业铁路运输开展“危险预知”活动模式的探讨

根据金川公司铁路运输企业安全工作实际,提出安全“危险预知”活动的概念,同时介绍了开展危险预知活动的方法、内容、效果,指出“危险预知”活动是企业实现安全预防为主,自主管理的很好模式。     

Analysis of maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein and free beta human chorionic gonadotrophin in the first trimester: Implications for down's syndrome screening

The aim of this study was to determine the maternal population, pregnancy, serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and free β subunit of human chorionic gonadotrophin (FβhCG) parameters in a large series of women attending prenatal clinics before 15 weeks' gestation and to assess the practical problems of population screening for Down's syndrome in the first trimester using these markers. Serum samples were collected from 8600 women attending prenatal clinic booking visits. Maternal serum AFP and FβhCG medians were calculated for each day of gestation (49–104 days), using both dates and ultrasound estimates of gestation. The effects of maternal weight, twin pregnancies, and threatened abortion on AFP and FβhCG levels were analysed. The median age of the population was 27.1 years and the median weight 62.1 kg. Twenty-six per cent of samples were collected before 70 days and 50 per cent before 78 days' gestation. Eighty-nine per cent of all samples had gestational estimates by dates, 60 per cent by ultrasound and 52 per cent by both dates and ultrasound. The AFP median was 5 kU/1 at 49 days, 5.9 kU/1 at 70 days, and 17.9 kU/1 at 100 days. The peak median FβhCG level was 66.4 ng/ml at 64 days, falling to 20.6 ng/ml at 100 days' gestation. Both AFP and FβhCG levels showed log Gaussian distributions but the standard deviation for AFP was 20 per cent greater than that found in the second trimester. AFP and FβhCG levels showed an inverse relationship with maternal weight and were increased in twin pregnancies (1.68 and 1.97 multiples of the median, respectively). AFP and FβhCG can be readily measured in a large screening population in the first trimester. Down's syndrome screening protocols based on these markers could be refined by the use of gestations in individual days but AFP is likely to be a less effective marker and detection rates are likely to be lower than in the second trimester. To realize the potential of first-trimester screening, more women should be encouraged to attend the prenatal clinic in early pregnancy and ultrasound dating should be carried out for all pregnancies at this stage.     

“首次不罚制”在环境执法推行中的问题与建议

根据“首次不罚制”在环境执法中推行的初步实践，指出了该制度自身存在的问题和制度外的制约因素，并提出了克服这些瓶颈因素的建议。