基于熵值法改进层次分析法马拉松急救能力评价模型的构建*

为减少马拉松赛事中猝死事故的发生,基于层次分析法、熵值法及模糊综合评价法,构建马拉松赛事医疗保障体系中现场急救能力的评价模型。通过分析马拉松赛事急救系统的组成及急救成功实例,总结影响马拉松急救能力的因素并建立评价指标体系;运用层次分析法确定评价体系的初始指标权重,熵值法修正指标权重,结合模糊决策参数法建立马拉松现场急救能力评价模型,并应用于2004年和2017年北京马拉松赛事,得到2004年北京马拉松的急救能力为“较差”,2017年北京马拉松的急救能力为“较好”,符合实际情况。结果表明:评价模型可为大型马拉松赛事的急救能力评价提供参考,为预防和减少马拉松赛事中猝死事件的发生提供技术支撑。     

Management of Urban Road Runoff Containing PAHs: Probabilistic Modeling and Its Application in Beijing,China1

Abstract: Pollutant loading from storm runoff is considered to be an important component of nonpoint source pollution in urban areas. In developing countries, because of the accelerated urbanization and motorization, storm runoff pollution has become a challenge for improving aquatic environmental quality. An effective storm runoff management plan needs to be developed, and questions concerning how much and which proportion of a storm should be treated need to be answered. In this study, a model is developed to determine the fraction of storm runoff that needs to be treated to meet the discharge standard within a given probability. The model considers that the pollutants can be mobilized during the early stage of a storm. The model is applied to a field study of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in road runoff in Beijing, China. In this case, the probability that the PAH load will be mobilized with suspended sediments by the earlier portion of the flush is 73%. Given the high PAH loading in the study area and the referenced discharge standard, the probability that the entire runoff should be captured and treated is 94%. Thus, urban planners need to consider treatment systems for the majority of the storms in this area, whether the PAH load is in the first flush or not. This methodology can be applied to other regions where PAH loads may result in different management outcomes.