水灾害治理对种植业生产的影响

为了应对水灾对我国种植业生产的破坏，国家每年要投入大量资金用于防灾减灾工作，在对1980年以来我国种植业生产、自然灾害和水利建设的统计数据进行描述性分析的基础上，通过建立模型，定量分析了26年来我国救灾工作和各种防灾水利建设对种植业增长所起的作用，为我国进一步制定科学有效的国家防灾减灾政策提供参考。     

Stakeholders' views towards flood risk management in the Paz River catchment area of Guatemala and El Salvador

The river Paz is a transboundary river that flows through Guatemala and El Salvador. Its frequent floods endanger the lives and livelihoods of downstream communities. Attempts have previously been made to develop flood management programmes for this watershed. However, these approaches were generally made by high-level governmental institutions with few if any contributions from floodplain communities and other stakeholders. Recognising that public consultation is a key aspect in flood management programmes, we intend in this work to extract different stakeholders' views regarding current and future flooding and flood management programmes in the Paz River basin. This is achieved using Future Scenarios Workshops with a projected time horizon of 30 years. The exercise was expected to identify consensual short- and medium–long-term flood management strategies for the Paz River basin that draws on input from inhabitants of flood-prone areas and other stakeholders.     

Problems of environmental protection and ecology on Bangladesh

The paper deals with the characteristics of Bangladesh basin including river morphology, rain fall pattern, cyclonic storms, forests and coastal area environment and ecosystem. It deals with factors which contribute to floods both natural and man-induced. The paper does with pollution problems including land and water use and indicates briefly policy measures and strategy adopted by government to combat problems of environment and ecology in Bangladesh.     

Major shifts in Amazon wildlife populations from recent intensification of floods and drought

In the western Amazon Basin, recent intensification of river‐level cycles has increased flooding during the wet seasons and decreased precipitation during the dry season. Greater than normal floods occurred in 2009 and in all years from 2011 to 2015 during high‐water seasons, and a drought occurred during the 2010 low‐water season. During these years, we surveyed populations of terrestrial, arboreal, and aquatic wildlife in a seasonally flooded Amazonian forest in the Loreto region of Peru (99,780 km²) to study the effects of intensification of natural climatic fluctuations on wildlife populations and in turn effects on resource use by local people. Shifts in fish and terrestrial mammal populations occurred during consecutive years of high floods and the drought of 2010. As floods intensified, terrestrial mammal populations decreased by 95%. Fish, waterfowl, and otter (Pteronura brasiliensis) abundances increased during years of intensive floods, whereas river dolphin and caiman populations had stable abundances. Arboreal species, including, macaws, game birds, primates, felids, and other arboreal mammals had stable populations and were not affected directly by high floods. The drought of 2010 had the opposite effect: fish, waterfowl, and dolphin populations decreased, and populations of terrestrial and arboreal species remained stable. Ungulates and large rodents are important sources of food and income for local people, and large declines in these animals has shifted resource use of people living in the flooded forests away from hunting to a greater reliance on fish.     

The views of experts and residents on social vulnerability to flash floods in an Alpine region of Italy

This paper reports on research work performed for Floodsite a European Community-funded project on the social aspects of vulnerability in the Adige/Sarca river basin of the Trentino-Alto Adige region, Italy. It identifies some limitations to the use of a fixed set of indicators, which fail to account for either local peculiarities or the intangible aspects that contribute to the shaping of social vulnerability. The authors employed a number of methods to investigate the opinions of professionals and residents on risk and safety, distinguishing between the individual and the institutional components of social vulnerability. Adopting a systemic perspective, they explored the interactions between these two elements, showing how they may give rise to unexpected phenomena. The 'safety paradox' and the 'efficiency paradox' are discussed, emerging when increased protection provided by structural devices and dedicated institutions translates into a lack of awareness and agency on the part of residents.     

1960～2012年中国东南沿海地区降水变化特征及重涝灾害趋势判断

基于东南沿海地区46个气象站点逐年实测降水数据,采用线性回归、Mann-Kendall检验法、Z指数法等气候诊断方法分析了1960~2012年东南沿海降水量时空变化特征,利用可公度、蝴蝶结构图和可公度结构系等灾害时间对称性方法,对重涝灾害未来趋势进行判断。结果表明:1)1960~2012年东南沿海地区降水整体呈增加趋势,增加速率为1.91mm/a;2)在空间变化上,降水量高值区域,降水呈现下降趋势,而降水量低值区域,降水则呈现上升趋势;降水呈下降趋势的区域集中在降水高值区,由南向北降水呈下降趋势站点逐渐减少,区域洪涝灾害风险逐渐增大;3)东南沿海旱涝变化具有明显的年际变化趋势,主要表现为20世纪60~70年代整体偏旱,80~90年代涝灾逐年增多,2000年后旱涝灾害频发,形成"重旱-重涝并重"的格局;4)东南沿海地区重涝时间序列具有明显的时间对称结构,经可公度、蝴蝶结构图和可公度结构系三种方法综合判断,2016年重涝信号较强,有可能发生较严重的涝灾,需要相关部门予以重视,完善区域自然灾害防御应急体系。     

Social vulnerability and the natural and built environment: a model of flood casualties in Texas

Studies on the impacts of hurricanes, tropical storms, and tornados indicate that poor communities of colour suffer disproportionately in human death and injury.(2) Few quantitative studies have been conducted on the degree to which flood events affect socially vulnerable populations. We address this research void by analysing 832 countywide flood events in Texas from 1997-2001. Specifically, we examine whether geographic localities characterised by high percentages of socially vulnerable populations experience significantly more casualties due to flood events, adjusting for characteristics of the natural and built environment. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression models indicate that the odds of a flood casualty increase with the level of precipitation on the day of a flood event, flood duration, property damage caused by the flood, population density, and the presence of socially vulnerable populations. Odds decrease with the number of dams, the level of precipitation on the day before a recorded flood event, and the extent to which localities have enacted flood mitigation strategies. The study concludes with comments on hazard-resilient communities and protection of casualty-prone populations.     

USE OF A DAM BREAK MODEL TO ASSESS FLOODING AT HADDAM NECK NUCLEAR POWER PLANT1

Because of their proximity to necessary supplies of cooling water, nuclear power plants are susceptible to riverine flooding. Greater flood hazards exist where plants are located downstream of large dams. The consequences of the Quabbin Reservoir dam failure on the Haddam Neck Nuclear Power Plant situated on the Connecticut River were investigated using a dam break flood routing model. Reasons for selecting a particular model are presented and the input assumptions for the modeling process are developed. Relevant information concerning the level of manpower involvement is presented. The findings of this analysis demonstrate that the plant is adequately protected from the consequences of the postulated flood event.     

Risk and the neoliberal state: why post-Mitch lessons didn't reduce El Salvador's earthquake losses

Although El Salvador suffered light losses from Hurricane Mitch in 1998, it benefited from the increased international aid and encouragement for advance planning, especially mitigation and prevention interventions. Thus, one would have supposed, El Salvador would have been in a very advantageous position, able more easily than its economically crippled neighbours, Honduras and Nicaragua, to implement the 'lessons of Mitch'. A review of the recovery plan tabled by the El Salvador government following the earthquakes of early 2001 shows that despite the rhetoric in favour of 'learning the lessons of Mitch', very little mitigation and prevention had actually been put in place between the hurricane (1998) and the earthquakes (2001). The recovery plan is analysed in terms of the degree to which it deals with root causes of disaster vulnerability, namely, the economic and political marginality of much of the population and environmental degradation. An explanation for the failure to implement mitigation and preventive actions is traced to the adherence by the government of El Salvador to an extreme form of neoliberal, free market ideology, and the deep fissures and mistrust in a country that follow a long and bloody civil war.     

The changing emphasis of disasters in Bangladesh NGOs

Bangladesh is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world, affected by cyclones and floods, as well as chronic hazards such as arsenic poisoning. NGOs have played a major role in bringing concerns related to risk management on to the national agenda and promoting a shift of focus from mere relief response to disaster mitigation and preparedness. The government has, after earlier scepticism, now accepted NGOs as major partners in these tasks. Innovative approaches, such as the use of microfinance, have been applied; many of which are related to preserving the gains of development efforts as part of rehabilitation. NGOs have pressured for better coordination with government. Improved structures are now approved, but it is still too early to judge their impact. Despite progress, neither NGOs nor governmental agencies have clearly defined roles in the effort to link disaster management priorities. This will ensure that longer-term development efforts build on local capacities and reduce vulnerabilities.