大气二氧化碳与未来森林

大气二氧化碳含量正在以每年０．４％的速度增加，对森林产生越来越明显的影响，对未来林业提出七个方面的挑战：温度变化、水的变化、气候变化、虫害和火灾变化、新基因的需要、造林与经营、加速研究进程，对此应尽快作出估价。     

再论自然灾害风险的定义

系统地总结了现有自然灾害风险的定义,并指出其存在的问题。重新甄别了自然灾害系统的组成要素及其作用机制,深入分析了自然灾害风险的核心内涵,据此提出了自然灾害风险的新定义,即自然灾害风险是由自然灾害系统自身演化而导致未来损失的不确定性。结合定义的相关规则,对自然灾害风险新定义进行了符合性验证。新定义不仅深化了人们对自然灾害风险本身的认识,而且明确了自然灾害风险评估的内容。     

建设扬州环保(静脉)产业园的思考

从竞争优势与发展机遇、不利因素等方面对扬州环保(静脉)产业园建设进行了可行性分析,并结合发展现状与可行性分析提出了扬州环保(静脉)产业园建设的目标定位和推进措施,简要介绍了扬州环保(静脉)产业园建设的现状。     

上海地区洪涝致灾因子复合概率及未来变化分析

根据上海地区三阶段(1970-2004年,2020-2054年和2060-2094年)四要素(降水、吴淞口风速、太湖流域面雨量、吴淞口潮位)提取年极值时间序列,采用GEV分布首先开展"雨洪风潮"各致灾因子气候变化分析,结果显示:"雨洪风潮"各致灾因子年极值受气候变化影响均呈增加趋势;进而基于Copula联合函数中的三维变量的超越概率模型,计算"雨洪风""雨洪潮"和"雨风潮"三种"三碰头"联合超越概率,结果表明:未来气候变化时段相对于历史基期,上海地区"雨洪风""雨洪潮"和"雨风潮"三种三碰头概率呈增加趋势。洪涝灾害致灾因子同时发生的复合概率增加,预示着气候变化影响下上海地区防汛排涝安全存在更大风险。     

Development of Future Generations： Oriented Virtual Negotiation Support System for Intergenerational Conflict

Intergenerational conflict coordination is the fundamental requirement and core of sustainable development. In this paper, through the analysis of the future generations-oriented management mechanisms for intergenerational conflict, the idea of mechanisms and institution building for the coordination and management of intergenerational conflict is put forward. Furthermore, the future generations-oriented virtual negotiation support system （NSS） for intergenerational conflict is developed, built on the analysis of the process simulation of intergenerational wealth transfer, intergenerational equilibrium allocation of resources, and strategies for the mitigation and avoidance of intergenerational conflict, through the application of advanced IT technology. The virtual NSS for intergenerational conflict is helpful to the practical application of the sustainable development theory; on the other hand, it can be applied directly to the intergenerational equilibrium allocation of resources, national economic accounting, formulation of sustainable development strategies and other urgent national economic and social development issues. Finally, the sustainable development theory can be enriched and extended. Therefore, the development of the future generations-oriented virtual NSS for intergenerational conflict has certain theoretical and practical effects on the theory of sustainable development.     

Past, Status Quo and Future of China’s Territorial Planning

Since 1949, China has witnessed four development stages of territorial planning. （1） In the 1950s the territorial planning got its start. （2） From the 1960s to 1970s territorial planning declined. （3） From, the 1980s to 1990s the first major tide of territorial planning began. （4） From the end of the 1990s to recent times the new round of territorial planning is under deliberation. Since 1998, the Ministry of Land and Resources has carried out some related work, especially in organizing pilot projects, and early research on the new round of national territorial planning. According to the need for economic and social development and the current conditions in China, it is the appropriate for China to carry out the new round of territorial planning. However, the government should correctly consider the correlations between territorial planning and other plan- nings, and take appropriate development action, e.g. stressing main points for the basis of overall planning, building a territorial planning system that coordinate with national conditions, strengthening research on various supportive measures of territorial planning, summarizing and upgrading experiences obtained in pilot projects, strengthening international exchange and training talented personnel.     

PAST AND FUTURE OF ANALYSIS OF WATER RESOURCES TIME SERIES1

ABSTRACT: water resources supply and demand time series consist of several or all of the four basic characteristics: tendency, intermittency, periodicity and stochasticity. Their importance changes from one type of variables to another. Historic developments of analysis of time series in hydrology have varied significantly over the past, from the stress on search for periodicities and persistence in annual series to the emphasis on the series stochastic properties. Supply and demand series are often highly interrelated, which fact is most often neglected in planning water resources systems in general, and water storage capacities in particular. The future of series analysis in water resources will likely be by a joint use of physically-based structural analysis and the use of advanced methods of treating data by stochastic processes, statistical estimation and inference techniques. The most intriguing challenge of the future of this analysis may be the treatment of nonnormal, nonlinear and in general nonstationary hydrologic and water use time series. The proper treatment of complex multivariate processes will also challenge the specialists, especially for the purposes of transfer of information between data on variables at given points, or between data at several points of a given variable, or both.     

ASSESSING ENVIRONMENTAL ATTITUDES AND CONCERNS ABOUT A CONTAMINATED SITE IN A DENSELY POPULATED SUBURBAN ENVIRONMENT

Considerable attention has been devoted to the concerns and perceptions of people residing around contaminated facilities, both brownfields in urban areas and others located in remote and lightly populated areas. This paper examines the concerns of recreationists and sportsmen residing near the Department of Energys (DOE) Brookhaven National Laboratory, in central Long Island, one of the most densely populated regions in the United States, where tourism is of prime importance. On an open-ended question, the greatest concern was pollution, followed by environmental health as a global concern, and human health as a concern for Brookhaven. Accidents/spills, loss of public health, and loss of ecological health were rated highest among a list of concerns, and change in property values was rated lowest. When asked to rank seven concerns, protecting human health was ranked the highest, and economic interests were ranked the lowest. For future land use at Brookhaven, recreational uses were rated the highest, while building houses and factories, and storage of nuclear material were rated the lowest. These data can be used by managers, decision and policy makers, and the general public to assess and manage local and regional environmental concerns and to consider future land uses for decommissioned lands, such as those at Brookhaven.     

On the Food Disasters in the Lower Jingjiang Reaches: Grey Prediction Model and Application

In the light of the historical substantial data (covering a 70-year period) collected in the Lower Jingjiang segment and aided by topological grey method, here we attempt to characterize the occurrence and future trend of flood calamities in the study area. Our findings indicate that overall the high-frequent flood disasters with middle to lower damage prevail at present. A series of dramatic flood waves will appear in the years of 2016, 2022, 2030and 2042, particularly a destructive flood will occur between 2041 and 2045 in the Lower Jingjiang reaches. Typical of sensitive response to flood hazards in close association with its special geographical location, the lower Jingjiang segment hereby can reflect the development trend of floods in the middle Yangtze reaches. According to the results, a good fitness was revealed between the prediction and practical values. This actually hints that the topological grey method is an effective mathematical means of resolving problems containing uncertainty and indetermination, thus providing valuable information for the flood prediction in the middle Yangtze catchment.     

功能性低聚糖的现状与发展

介绍了功能性低聚糖的现状、生理功能、主要种类、结构、生产、特性及其应用,展望了发展前景。