长江经济带城市对外服务能力时空演变分析

基于城市流强度模型测算2000年以来长江经济带126个地级以上城市在全国范围内的对外服务能力,进而采用改良锡尔系数、马尔可夫链和ESDA方法对城市对外服务能力的时空演变特征进行探讨。结果表明:研究时段内长江经济带各市城市流强度都有显著提升,但区域间的非均衡现象明显,城市对外服务能力呈现出由东部向西部的梯度递减;省内差异对城市对外服务能力的差异贡献率最高,是空间尺度差异的主要来源;对外服务能力存在明显的俱乐部趋同现象和空间自相关性,对外服务能力相似的区域聚集分布,东、中、西部分别形成长三角、武汉-长沙、成渝等对外服务区域中心;时空演变表现出阶段性特征,经历由极化向均衡的转变。最后指出多中心发展和寻找新增长点应成为长江经济带城市对外服务能力提升的方向。     

城镇化与工业化对能源强度影响的实证研究——基于截面相关和异质性回归系数的非平衡面板数据模型

城镇化、工业化对中国能源强度的影响如何?如何在快速推进城镇化、工业化进程的同时确保节能减排目标的实现?论文以能源强度指标代替传统的能源消费指标来反映能源综合利用效率,并应用考虑截面相关性和异质性回归系数的非平衡面板数据模型,使用共同相关效应组均值(CCEMG)估计方法对中国1978-2014年城镇化、工业化与能源强度之间的关系进行分析。研究结果表明:人均实际GDP增长1%,能源强度将会降低0.412%,工业化水平增长1%,能源强度将会上升0.630%,而由于生产消费等经济活动的增加、高度集中化以及规模经济的综合作用,使得城镇化对能源强度的影响并不确定。联系研究结论,本文提出政策建议:我国应加快产业结构升级,转变经济增长方式;构建绿色制造体系,推进"五化"协同发展;推进绿色、循环、低碳发展的新型城镇化建设,提高城镇化质量,提升我国整体的能源效率,确保节能减排目标的实现,推动经济全面、协调、可持续发展。     

北京入境旅游流西向扩散与省域经济联系研究——以西部三大典型区为例

北京是我国经济、政治和文化中心,也是我国最重要的入境口岸之一。入京旅游流西向的扩散转移对省域之间旅游经济联系强度具有极大的直接促进作用,转移态是反映旅游流流向和流量的重要指标。在对我国西部三大典型旅游区界定的基础上,利用转移态指数模型和旅游经济联系强度模型对入京旅游流向西转移态及其与西部三大典型旅游区的经济联系强度进行了相关性分析,得出入京旅游流西向转移态对西部典型区经济的影响程度为:成渝泛西安云贵,在此基础上分析了原因,并对西部三大典型旅游区如何更好地吸引北京入境旅游"二手客源",以促进旅游业更快发展提出了相应对策与建议。     

中国能源生态足迹的时空动态特征及效应分析

运用生态足迹方法计算出1990—2007年中国能源消费的生态足迹。在此基础上,分析了能源足迹强度(EFI)、能源足迹生态压力(EPIEF)的时空动态变化特征。结果表明,近20年来我国能源足迹波动上升,能源消费结构有所改善,但煤炭足迹仍占主导,近几年又有回升趋势;能源足迹强度呈幂指数衰减,能源利用效率不断提高;EPIEF呈上升趋势,说明能源利用对自然生态系统的压力逐渐增大。在空间分布上,各省区能源足迹差异显著,能源足迹强度由西向东逐渐降低,而EPIEF则由西向东呈增大趋势。依据EPIEF指数将中国30个省区划分为能源足迹生态盈余区(EPIEF1)、生态轻度亏损区(1EPIEF5)和生态严重亏损区(EPIEF5)3种类型。     

天津市纪庄子污水处理厂恶臭气体排放研究

2011年,在天津市纪庄子污水处理厂内采集空气样品,并对其中恶臭气体的浓度、扩散模式、影响范围及污水厂内各主要构筑物间相关系数进行了分析研究。结果表明,污水处理厂格栅处恶臭气体浓度最高,为4.31 ng/mL,其中95.61%为H2S气体,其他构筑物恶臭气体浓度范围为0.09～0.32 ng/mL,恶臭气体浓度较前处理工艺相比有大幅度减少;各主要构筑物排放的恶臭气体符合高斯气体扩散模式,恶臭影响范围为厂界外100 m以内;格栅处恶臭气体的排放对于厂界处恶臭气体浓度的贡献度最大,为42.68%;格栅、初沉池、脱水机房、二沉池之间的相关度在90%以上。     

Rain‐washing of foliar deposits of Dimilin®WP‐25 formulated in four different carrier liquids

Abstract

Dimilin^® WP‐25, a wettable powder formulation of diflubenzuron (DFB) [1‐(4‐chlorophenyl)‐3‐(2,6‐difluorobenzoyl) urea], was formulated in four different carrier liquids, viz., water; a light petroleum paraffinic oil, ID 585; a heavy paraffinic oil, Sunspray^® 7N; and a 1:2 mixture of a light petroleum aromatic solvent (Cyclosol^® 63) and canola oil; to provide four end‐use mixtures, Dim‐W, Dim‐585, Dim‐7N and Dim‐Cy‐C respectively, each containing 28 g of DFB per litre. Balsam fir branch tips clipped from greenhouse‐grown seedlings, and sugar maple branch tips clipped from field‐grown young trees, were exposed to uniform‐sized droplets (ranging in diameters from 135 to 190 μm) of the four end‐use mixtures which were atomized using a monodispersed droplet generator. Droplets were collected on the fir and maple branch tips and the initial residue per g fresh weight of foliage was determined by high‐performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The branch tips were exposed to cumulative rainfall of 3, 6 and 10 mm at an intensity of 5 mm/h and at time intervals of 1, 12, 36 and 72 h after DFB treatment, to test the influence of ‘ageing’ of foliar residues on rainfastness. Foliar samples were collected for residue determination just before the onset of rainfall, and at 0.5 h post‐rain. DFB was quantified by the HPLC method. In the case of fir foliage, the Dim‐W formulation was the most susceptible to rain‐washing and the rainfastness did not increase with the ageing period of foliar deposits. In contrast, the three oil‐based mixtures showed greater rainfastness depending upon the carrier liquid and the ageing period. Rainfastness decreased in the order of Dim‐Cy‐C > Dim‐7N > Dim‐585 > Dim‐W. In contrast, the data on maple foliage indicated that the ageing of deposits increased the rainfastness of all the 4 end‐use mixtures. Dim‐585 was the most susceptible to rain washing, and rainfastness decreased in the order of Dim‐W > Dim‐Cy‐C > Dim‐7N > Dim‐585.     

地磁绝对测量对中等地震的反应

介绍了1993年获得的两个中等地震震例的情况,并以此验证据以往震例总结出的预报公式。验证的结果与实际符合较好。另外,文中指出了该手段的主要优点及克服其缺点的可能途径,即有些台站可采用地磁等变线差值法处理。     

伊朗加恩—贝尔兼德地震结构震害概述

对１９９７年５月１０日伊朗东部加恩－贝尔兼德地震中出现的几类结构的震害现象进行了初步的描述与分析,同时,就经抗震设防与未防抗震设防结构的震害现明作了对比。对震区重建及附近地区新建结构抗震问题的解决有一定的参考意义。     

Hermaphrodite sex role preferences: the role of partner body size, mating history and female fitness in the sea slug Chelidonura sandrana

Costs and benefits associated with matings and the effects of mating frequency on fitness commonly differ between the sexes. As a result, outcrossing simultaneous hermaphrodites may prefer to copulate in the more rewarding sex role, generating conflicts over sperm donation and sperm receipt between mates. Because recent sex role preference models remain controversial, we contrast here some of their assumptions and predictions in the sea slug Chelidonura sandrana. For this hermaphrodite with sperm storage and internal fertilisation, risk-averse models assume that fitness pay-offs are constantly higher in the female than in the male function in any single mating. Moreover, excluding mutual partner assessment, these models predict male mating behaviour to be independent of receiver traits. The competing gender ratio hypothesis assumes that relative fitness pay-offs, and thus the preferred mating roles, vary and may reverse between matings and predicts that ejaculation strategies co-vary with receiver quality. We found that field mating rates of C. sandrana substantially exceeded what is required to maintain female fertility and fecundity, indicating large variation in direct female benefits between matings. We further demonstrate that male copulation duration adaptively increased with partner body size (i.e. fecundity) but decreased with recent partner promiscuity. These findings are compatible with the gender ratio hypothesis but contradict risk-averse models.     

长江三角洲及其附近地区两千年来水灾的研究

通过对长江三角洲及其附近地区两千年来水灾生成频率和强度的分析。认为两晋、南北朝时期和南宋、元、明、清时期是两千年来本区的主要水灾期。对照两千年来中国东部气候变化、海面升降与长江口河道变迁关系,认为在本区水灾生成事件中,气候因素起着主导控制作用。当然,人类活动对本区水灾生成的影响也不容忽视。本地区近百年来的旱涝灾害规律可用非线性科学的方法进行研究,旱涝灾害的准60年、准35年和准11年的长周期变化与地球自转速度、地极移动和太阳黑子活动的3个周期变化基本一致。本地区气候系统的行为具有混沌特征。这是线性逼近和周期叠加预报方法难以得出灾害预报正确结果的原因,但气候系统半个月的确定性预测可以实现。