“双向探索法”──一种研究移民环境容量的新方法

水利工程的移民环境容量受社会、经济、环境等诸要素的制约。本文以中国四川省开县为例,提出“双向探索法”,并应用于移民环境容量研究,研究方法可行、灵活,且求解迅速可靠,能为决策者提供多种行动方案和决策信息。为本领域的科学研究做了一次有意义的尝试。     

Multicriteria decision-making for efficient water and land resources allocation in irrigated agriculture

The irrational use of water in agriculture is often responsible for several problems concerning the depletion and/or the pollution of water resources. In these cases specific policy measures should be taken to protect water resources from harmful agricultural activities, mitigating at the same time their potential impact on farmers’ welfare. To this end, a multicriteria decision-making model is formulated that aims at allocating efficiently water and land resources in a rural area of Greece, by optimizing a set of important socio-economic and environmental objectives. According to the model’s output, past and current decisions on irrigated agriculture turned out to be oriented towards meeting exclusively the socio-economic objectives. Yet, there are several other possible allocations schemes that could be applied in order to improve the performance of environmental indicators and to contribute to a more sustainable use of natural resources. Moreover, the decision-making model can be further employed to assess a number of additional policy measures in irrigated agriculture. In this framework, the outcome of imposing various water pricing policies was evaluated. The efficiency of these policies was found tightly connected to the elasticity of water demand. Namely, higher elasticity seems to enhance the flexibility in resource allocation and the movement towards environmental objectives. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

因地制宜建设好彭州市国家级生态示范区

生态示范区建设是实施可持续发展战略的基本经济社会形式。本文简单介绍了彭州市的概况，根据建设的指导思想、建设目标，对彭州市进行生态经济分区，并确定了分区规划目标，相应的提出了重点建设领域，为当地开展生态示范区建设工作提供了理论参考。     

Fuzzy goal programming for biodiesel production

ABSTRACT

The energy consumed around the world and especially in Morocco is dominated by oil products. The latter; whether in the global or the national context; are mainly due to diesel, whose climate impacts are well established, suggesting the search for a greener alternative. Despite its virtues, biodiesel is struggling to impose itself for purely economic reasons. Thus, in order to offer a sustainable solution, while keeping in mind the unpredictable fluctuations (price, demand …). This work proposes a generalization of fuzzy goal programming into fully fuzzy goal programming and a relative application, where the aim is to have a final product at a competitive price.     

运用模拟生态系统评价果尔在稻田使用的安全性

在自行设计的稻田－鱼塘模拟生态系统中，以鲤鱼幼鱼和沼虾成虾为试验生物，对果尔在稻田使用的生态影响进行了模拟评价。结果表明，果尔在环境中消解很快，若按规定剂量在稻田使用，不会对邻近水域的鱼虾类生物产生危害，对稻田养鱼也是安全的。     

汶川8.0级地震非承重墙体震害调查分析

通过对汶川8.0级地震发生后西安、成都地区(地震烈度为Ⅵ～Ⅶ度区)的高层建筑震害调查,以某小区震后建筑物非承重墙体裂缝为实例,给出了高层建筑震害易发生的部位和楼层,分析了非承重墙体裂缝产生的原因。震害调查表明:汶川地震中,在抗震设防烈度为Ⅵ～Ⅷ度区,当地震烈度为Ⅵ～Ⅶ度时,非承重墙抗震性能的表现不尽如人意。提出了应对非承重墙体制定设防目标,且非承重结构构件的抗震设防目标应与主体结构设防目标相适应,使建筑结构设计,对非承重墙的抗震设防有据可依,使灾后有可能对设计与施工的质量进行评估,通过有区别地加强非承重墙的抗震构造措施,减小建筑物的震害损失。     

Beijing's coordinated development of population,resources, environment,and economy

Since the Olympic Games will be held in Beijing at 2008, the urban development plan of Beijing deserves special attention. The essence of regional sustainable development is that population (P), resources (R), environment (E) and economy (E) could develop with sustenance, order and coordination during a certain period, which forms a complex system called the PREE complex system. For this system, a multi-objective integrated model is formulated and solved by a nonlinear goal programming technique. Beijing's PREE complex system is then used as an empirical study. Twelve interesting goals are carefully selected, the parameters of each goal function were estimated by using Beijing's 50-year (1949–1999) statistical data, and their ideal goal limits for 2000 and 2005 are chosen according to the 9th and 10th Five-Year Economic Development Plans of Beijing. The results showed that population size is the most sensitive element in Beijing's PREE complex system. Furthermore, some suggestions related to public policies about the urban development of Beijing are proposed.     

基于风险分析的城市防灾减灾规划编制——以地震规划为例

为减轻城市灾害损失,提出城市防灾减灾规划编制方法,将减灾规划分为准备、风险分析、编制和实施4个步骤。依据风险分析结果,制订防灾减灾规划目标、减灾措施及策略。给出典型的地震灾害风险分析方法。以某市为例,算出其各区域的地震风险。根据风险等级划分标准确定各区域的地震风险可接受水平。基于此结果在GIS平台上的表达,可知市内旧城区的地震风险很高,须立刻采取风险减缓措施。对减灾措施进行优化,结果表明:加快现有设防不足工程的抗震加固,严抓新建工程的抗震设防水准是提高该市抗震减震能力的关键。     

A comparative analysis of methods to represent uncertainty in estimating the cost of constructing wastewater treatment plants

Prediction of construction cost of wastewater treatment facilities could be influential for the economic feasibility of various levels of water pollution control programs. However, construction cost estimation is difficult to precisely evaluate in an uncertain environment and measured quantities are always burdened with different types of cost structures. Therefore, an understanding of the previous development of wastewater treatment plants and of the related construction cost structures of those facilities becomes essential for dealing with an effective regional water pollution control program. But deviations between the observed values and the estimated values are supposed to be due to measurement errors only in the conventional regression models. The inherent uncertainties of the underlying cost structure, where the human estimation is influential, are rarely explored. This paper is designed to recast a well-known problem of construction cost estimation for both domestic and industrial wastewater treatment plants via a comparative framework. Comparisons were made for three technologies of regression analyses, including the conventional least squares regression method, the fuzzy linear regression method, and the newly derived fuzzy goal regression method. The case study, incorporating a complete database with 48 domestic wastewater treatment plants and 29 industrial wastewater treatment plants being collected in Taiwan, implements such a cost estimation procedure in an uncertain environment. Given that the fuzzy structure in regression estimation may account for the inherent human complexity in cost estimation, the fuzzy goal regression method does exhibit more robust results in terms of some criteria. Moderate economy of scale exists in constructing both the domestic and industrial wastewater treatment plants. Findings indicate that the optimal size of a domestic wastewater treatment plant is approximately equivalent to 15,000 m3/day (CMD) and higher in Taiwan. Yet the optimal size of an industrial wastewater treatment plant could fall in between 6000 CMD and 20,000 CMD.     

我国安全工程本科专业培养方案之比较分析

基于比较的视角对我国安全工程本科专业的培养方案从培养目标、培养模式、课程结构3个方面进行分析,发现其中存在的问题有:专业设置单一,涉及面窄;培养目标雷同,难以凸显办学特色;课程离散性大,人本位课程缺失;开设院校单一,集中在工程类院校。提出改进和完善培养方案的建议:在涉及安全问题较多的领域设置安全专业,设置更多的安全类本科专业;培养目标要多元化,以满足不同行业、领域对安全科技人才的需求;规范安全工程本科专业,降低课程的离散度;加强安全思维与意识训练等人本位课程的开设,真正实现安全问题的核心是人的安全,主张培养综合能力型(通用型)的安全科技人才;在综合性高校开设安全类专业、安全类课程、安全类选修课程。