用灰色组合模型预测环保投资

针对环保投资变化的非平稳性，采用灰以ＧＭ（１，１）模型分析环保投资的趋势项并与历史环保投资比较得一系列残差，然后应用人工神经网络模型进行了正以提高精度。     

Sex allocation in the solitary bee Osmia cornuta: do females behave in agreement with Fisher's theory?

Fisher's theory of sex allocation predicts that, in a panmictic population, parental investment will be equally distributed between male and female progeny. Most studies on parental investment in nesting solitary bees and wasps use offspring or provision weight as estimators of parental investment and do not corroborate Fisher's theory. The measurement of parental investment may be confounded by several factors. First, the use of offspring or provision size does not account for seasonal variation in foraging costs associated with aging of nesting females. Second, provision or offspring size do not reflect parental investment associated with nest construction. In this two-year study we measured parental investment in a solitary bee. We calculated sex allocation using both provision weight and foraging time as parental investment estimators. Investment in pollen-nectar provisions decreased, while investment in mud structures (nest construction) increased, as the nesting period progressed. Overall investment in provisions per nest was ∼25 times higher than investment in mud. Pollen-nectar foraging trips became longer as the season progressed, but mud trip duration did not vary. Due to weather differences between years, more offspring per female were produced in the first year, but progeny sex ratio and mean offspring size of both sexes were similar between years. Mortality did not differ between sexes. As predicted by Fisher's theory, production cost ratios did not differ from 1 in either year, irrespective of the currency used to estimate parental investment (provision weight or foraging time). Our results strongly support Fisher's theory.     

Yolk androgen deposition as a compensatory strategy

The deposition of androgens into the yolks of eggs can have long-lasting effects on the growth and development of young birds. It has been proposed that female birds and reptiles deposit yolk androgens according to the differential allocation hypothesis (DAH), which posits the allocation of more resources to offspring sired by more attractive, higher-quality males. We examined deposition patterns of yolk androgens in relation to mate attractiveness in the house finch Carpodacus mexicanus. Contrary to the predictions of the DAH, female house finches deposited significantly more androgens into eggs sired by less attractive males. We propose that, rather than serving as resources, androgens are used as mediators in a compensatory distribution strategy, enabling females to improve the quality of young produced with less attractive males.     

Risk-taking by female ducks: intra- and interspecific tests of nest defense theory

We tested several predictions of nest defense theory by observing variation in flushing distance and probability of nest abandonment within and between six species of waterfowl. In these species, only the females incubate eggs and attend offspring. First, we examined whether flushing distance by females varied in relation to clutch size, stage of incubation, and time of season, after controlling for the number of visits made to nests by observers. Revisits by observers appeared to affect flushing distance by females for reasons unrelated to the relative value of the current clutch. We found that as incubation progressed, females allowed observers to approach more closely before flushing from the nest. In some species, females with larger clutches allowed closer approaches to nests before flushing which was also consistent with nest defense theory. In contrast, time of season (Julian date) did not relate to flushing distance for any species. When species were compared, we found that species with moderate to high yearly mortality and high reproductive output per breeding attempt (e.g., northern shoveler and blue-winged teal) were less likely to abandon nesting attempts and exhibited riskier behavior (remained at nests when approached closely by observers) than species that had lower yearly mortality (e.g., mallard). Our results show that flushing distance and patterns of nest abandonment by female ducks conform to several predictions of nest defense theory.Correspondence to: M.R.L. Forbes     

Determinants of parental effort: a behavioural study in the Eurasian kestrel,Falco tinnunculus

We recorded behaviour of kestrels (Falco tinnunculus) in western Finland during the courtship (1988–1992), incubation (1989–1991), early nestling (age of young 1–2 weeks, 1989–1992) and late nestling stages (3–4 weeks, 1989–1991) to examine determinants of their parental effort (PE). In males, PE was estimated as the hunting effort (the proportion of budget time spent in flight-hunting) and in females as the food provisioning rate (number of prey items delivered to the nest per hour). The following predictions derived from the parental investment theory were examined. (1) Parents rearing large clutches and broods should invest more in breeding than do parents rearing small clutches and broods. The hunting effort of parents did not increase with clutch or brood size, but males tending large broods had a higher prey delivery rate than males tending small broods (Figs 1–2). (2) PE of parents should increase in the course of the breeding season. In males, this was true only between the incubation and early nestling phases (Fig. 3). (3) The early pairs should invest more in breeding than late ones. This tended to be true during the early (for males) and late nestling phases (for females) (Fig. 4). (4) There should be a negative correlation between PE of mates within pairs, but no evidence for such adjustment was found (Fig. 5). (5) Females mated with bright-coloured attractive males should show higher PE than females mated with dull-coloured males but our results were inconsistent with this prediction. We conclude that PE decisions of kestrels are mainly based on cost-benefit estimates of residual reproductive value, rather than on current investment indicators, like clutch or brood size. This might be beneficial in environments with highly variable survival prospects of offspring caused by pronounced among-year variation in abundance of the main food (microtine rodents). The results also show that hypotheses explaining variation in PE in the short term are not necessarily valid for long-term PE, e.g. tending clutches or broods, which also reflects the demands of female and young.     

试论投资项目环境评价的理论基础

对投资项目进行环境影响评价是人类社会发展的必然产物,是人类实现可持续发展的必然要求,是有效解决人类生态困境的根本性环节之一.目前对投资项目的环境影响评价明显不足,现阶段,应加强其理论基础的研究.以可持续发展为目标对环境生态学、环境经济学和环境系统科学等相关理论进行深入的研究,并采取相应措施是进行有效环境影响评价的重要保证.     

Restructuring water industry in China: towards sustainable urbanization

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美国对外农业投资格局演变及其影响因素——兼论“一带一路”农业合作

对外农业投资是“一带一路”倡议的重要内容,研究美国对外农业投资特征,既可总结先行之国的发展经验,也可响应并适应主要竞争对手的投资行为,为充分利用两个市场、两种资源提供科学依据。本文立足对外直接投资理论,采用Logistic模型与面板数据分析方法,研究了2000-2018年美国对外农业投资的时空格局、影响因素及其对“一带一路”农业合作的启示。结果表明:（1）美国对外农业投资以食品加工等产前产后环节为主,主要分布于西欧等发达国家以及墨西哥、巴西等地理临近的发展中国家。（2）美国对外农业投资呈现显著的市场导向特征,同时也受到地理与文化距离、国家治理等东道国因素的影响。（3）对比中美对外农业投资特征,结合当前国际经贸形势与中国农业国际合作目标,建议中国进一步优化农业产业链布局,在促进实现联合国可持续发展目标的同时,提高中国在全球粮安领域的定价权与渠道把控力;进一步深耕既有对外农业投资市场,在降低地缘竞争压力的同时,充分挖掘潜在市场机会;关注“一带一路”沿线国家的农业技术需求,保证投资目标与东道国的投资需求相协调;尤需解决中国对外农业投资面临的文化与体制差异较大等现实问题,提高“一带一路”农业合作项目的可持续性。     

长江流域主要污染物总量减排及水质响应的时空特征

从流域尺度评估污染物减排与水质响应成为我国水环境质量管理的重要内容,以长江流域为研究对象,分析了“十二五”期间长江10个子流域的主要污染物(化学需氧量和氨氮)减排效果及水质响应的时空差异。结果表明,环保投资大幅度增加促进了长江流域主要污染物的减排,然而不合理的环保投资结构导致流域水污染治理效率并不高。不同流域污染负荷差异显著,长江中下游负荷量约为源头区的4倍。不同污染物的水体质量浓度与流域负荷量之间的响应机制存在明显差异,其中,长江各流域水体氨氮质量浓度对流域的氨氮负荷量变化表现出积极的响应关系,相比之下,长江各流域水体高锰酸盐指数的年平均质量浓度变化趋势与流域化学需氧量负荷的变化并不一致。建议调整长江流域污染治理的环保投资结构,提高生活源污染的治理效率,同时在分析流域总量减排与水质响应不确定性基础上,优化和调整流域污染物管理方案.     

煤矿安全状况随社会经济发展演化规律研究

利用安全效用原理系统地阐述煤矿安全生产投入产出理论,并借助安全经济学知识建立一个国家或地区的煤矿安全状况演化规律的理论模型。从理论上阐明煤矿安全状况演化的本质规律,并运用发达国家的安全生产发展历程的统计数据对该模型进行实证分析,同时通过该模型系统地反映我国现阶段安全生产与经济发展的关系。笔者认为:中央直属煤矿和地方重点煤矿基本上服从演化规律,但仍需要加大安全投入力度,乡镇煤矿近几年有偏离规律曲线的趋势;建议社会经济迅速发展阶段提高安全意识,加大安全投入,积极采取有效措施,把煤矿事故控制在可接受范围之内。