THE EFFECT OF DATA INDEPENDENCE IN MODEL CALIBRATION AND MODEL TESTING1

ABSTRACT: With the increased use of models in hydrologic design, there is an immediate need for a comprehensive comparison of hydrologic models, especially those intended for use at ungaged locations (i.e., where measured data are either not available or inadequate for model calibration). But some past comparisons of hydrologic models have used the same data base for both calibration and testing of the different models or implied that the results of model calibration are indicative of the accuracy at ungaged locations. This practice was examined using both the regression equation approach to peak discharge estimation and a unit hydrograph model that was intended for use in urban areas. The results suggested that the lack of data independence in the calibration and testing of regression equations may lead to both biased results and misleading statements about prediction accuracy. Additionally, although split-sample testing is recognized as desirable, the split-samples should be selected using a systematic-random sampling scheme, rather than random sampling, because random sampling with small samples may lead to a testing sample that is not representative of the population. A systematic-random sampling technique should lead to more valid conclusions about model reliability. For models like a unit hydrograph model, which are more complex and for which calibration is a more involved process, data independence is not as critical because the data fitting error variation is not as dominant as the error variation due to the calibration process and the inability of the model structure to conform with data variability.     

REGIONAL DETECTION OF CHANGE IN WATER QUALITY VARIABLES1

ABSTRACT: The detection of change in a hydrologic varaible, particularly water quality, is a current problem. A method is presented for testing whether there has been a shift in the mean of a hydrologic variable based on the well established bivariate normal distribution theory. In this technique, the dependent, or target, and the independent, or control, variables are formed as weighted linear combinations of the mean values at a number of locations in a selected target and control area. The weighting factors are determined based on a mathematical programming technique which minimizes the conditional coefficient of variation thereby minimizing the number of observations required to detect a change of a preselected magnitude in the mean of the target area. The result is a situation where a savings in the number of observations required to detect a change is a consequence of adding more stations: the space-time tradeoff. Two applications of the technique are presented, the first using electrical conductivity (EC) data from two sets of river basins and the second using EC data from a set of basins as the target variable and annual discharge as the control. The results indicate that a significant savings in time can be achieved by using this method.     

Rehabilitation of a lowland river: Reconciling flood defence with habitat diversity and geomorphological sustainability

Geomorphologically appropriate rehabilitation measures were proposed to enhance the in-stream environment of the lowland River Idle, north Nottinghamshire, UK. However, the River Idle has multi-functional management requirements including those of flood defence so environmental enhancement must be pursued without significantly increasing the flood risk. Hydraulic testing of rehabilitation proposals is complicated because of the stringent assumptions about flow and morphology in ‘traditional’ hydraulic models. While new generation two- and three-dimension hydraulic models may overcome some of these problems, they are extremely data intensive, require advanced modelling capabilities and are, therefore, very expensive to apply. Also, they do not yet predict morphology-flow interactions adequately. As an alternative, several simple hydraulic models were applied to test the rehabilitation proposals, based on a fitness-for-purpose criterion.BENDFLOW was applied to fine tune the optimal siting of measures and to estimate the additional near-bank scour generated by proposed bend re-profiling. HMODEL2 and the FCFA method were used to test the impact on local channel conveyance capacities and HECRAS was applied to simulate the impact of the proposals on regional flood defence. Indicative results from the testing suggested a maximum increase in near-bank scour of 0·15 m in re-profiled bends, a loss of approximately 10% in flood conveyance locally due to deflector installation or reed and tree planting, and a 0·12 m increase in flood stage within the reach for a 15 year flood. The modelling results were acceptable to the management authority as an indication of an acceptable compromise between flood defence and conservation interests, and construction of the measures followed in 1996. It is clearly that it will require the results of post-project monitoring to indicate whether compromises made to the rehabilitation initiatives in order to satisfy flood defence requirements have unduly reduced their environmental enhancement potential but, for assessing the proposed methods, the models are recommended for use other lowland river environments.     

Heavy metal contamination from mining sites in South Morocco: Monitoring metal content and toxicity of soil runoff and groundwater

The aim of the present work is the assessment of metal toxicity in runoff, in their contaminated soils and in the groundwater sampled from two mining areas in the region of Marrakech using a microbial bioassay MetPLATE™. This bioassay is based on the specific inhibition of the β-galactosidase enzyme of a mutant strain of Escherichia coli, by the metallic pollutants. The stream waters from all sampling stations in the two mines were all very toxic and displayed percent enzyme inhibition exceeding 87% except SWA₄ and SWB₁ stations in mine C. Their high concentrations of copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn) confirm the acute toxicity shown by MetPLATE. The pH of stream waters from mine B and C varied between 2.1 and 6.2 and was probably responsible for metal mobilization, suggesting a problem of acid mine drainage in these mining areas. The bioassay MetPLATE™ was also applied to mine tailings and to soils contaminated by the acidic waters. The results show that the high toxicity of these soils and tailings was mainly due to the relatively concentration of soluble Zn and Cu. The use of MetPLATE™ in groundwater toxicity testing shows that, most of the samples exhibited low metal toxicity (2.7–45.5% inhibition) except GW3 of the mine B (95.3% inhibition during the wet season and 82.9% inhibition during the dry season). This high toxicity is attributed to the higher than usual concentrations of Cu (189 μg Cu l⁻¹) and Zn (1505 μg Zn l⁻¹). These results show the potential risk of the contamination of different ecosystems situated to the vicinity of these two metalliferous sites. The general trend observed was an increase in metal toxicity measured by the MetPLATE with increasing total and mobile metal concentrations in the studied matrices. Therefore, the MetPLATE bioassay is a reliable and fast bioassay to estimate the metals toxicity in the aquatic and solids samples.     

超高速瞬态测试系统软硬件构架设计研究

目的研究采样频率为2~10 MHz的64通道超高速同步瞬态测试系统的设计技术,实现两类典型超高速瞬态测试系统的硬件架构设计与软件架构设计。方法一类采用PXI-Express高带宽总线和高速RAID磁盘阵列架构构建持续流盘存储的连续高速测试系统,另一类是采用大容量板载数据缓存和PXI总线事后下载传输数据的架构构造高速测试系统。在高性能测试软件设计方面,主要应用生产者/消费者结构与有限状态机相结合的软件架构进行高性能测试系统软件设计。结果目前64通道下基于持续流盘架构的测试系统受数据记录的速度限制系统最高采样频率仅达2.5 MHz,而基于板载缓存数据与PXI总线事后下载数据架构的测试系统最高采样频率可达10 MHz,测试时长可达5 s。结论当前两类架构的测试系统均可满足超高速瞬态测试需求,设计时需根据需求的最高采样频率决定使用的架构形式。     

固定源细颗粒物稀释测试法现场应用存在问题及影响因素分析研究

对基于大气环境的稀释测试法在现场应用中存在的主要问题进行了归纳总结,并对若干影响细颗粒物测试结果的重要因素进行了分析,诸如停留时间、稀释比、采样时间等因素,期望能够对该法测试系统的后续改进或重新设计提供实际问题导向,同时也能够对该领域现场工作的科研人员提供非常有用的经验。     

被动加标在水生生态风险评价中的应用——以多氯联苯分配系数的测定为例

准确的水生生态风险评价需要可靠的毒性数据,而其获取要求在一定时间范围内,水体中污染物的浓度保持恒定。对疏水性有机污染物进行水体生物毒性测试时,通常采用有机溶剂加标,然而该方式可能因为污染物的挥发和降解、容器壁吸附、生物摄取等问题,水体中污染物浓度持续下降,导致污染物的浓度-效应关系难以明确。近期为了克服这些问题,被动加标用于替代溶剂加标,通过污染物在加标体系中平衡分配来维持精确和恒定的水体浓度,同时还可通过测定加标聚合物中污染物的浓度来监测水体浓度。首先介绍了被动加标方法及其材料选择,讨论了该方法在生态风险评价中的主要应用,包括分配系数的测定、体外细胞测试、体内生物积累及毒性测试,以及沉积物毒性评价等。然后,以测定代表污染物多氯联苯在聚二甲基硅氧烷与水间的分配系数为例,详细说明被动加标的操作流程。最后,讨论了被动加标方法的优缺点,并对其在水生生态风险中的应用前景进行了展望。     

液化石油气槽车泄漏处置专用接头套组的应用探讨

针对消防救援车辆缺乏专业堵漏和倒罐装备、应急处置受限等问题,研究采用专用注压接头套组与消防车配合,通过向事故槽车阀门注水加压或惰性气体的方式实施辅助堵漏,能够实现因地制宜、快速有效地解决现场液化石油气大量泄漏的问题,降低事故危害。     

基于平面压入技术研究焊接接头单轴应力-应变关系

目的 获取异种金属焊接接头母材和热影响区局部拉伸应力-应变关系。方法 对压水堆机组蒸汽发生器接管安全端异种金属焊接接头(20MND 5-INCONEL 52-Z2 CND 18.12控氮)进行研究,通过金相检验和显微硬度测试,研究DMWJ母材、热影响区、焊缝熔合线位置的金相组织和维氏硬度分布。采用等直圆棒拉伸试验获得DMWJ低合金钢(20MND 5)母材的应力-应变关系,采用基于能量等效理论的平面压入技术获得DMWJ低合金钢母材、热影响区和焊缝局部材料应力-应变关系。结果 DMWJ材料组织、力学性能不均匀,等直圆棒拉伸试验得到的低合金钢母材拉伸应力-应变关系与平面压入技术测得结果较为吻合。结论 基于能量等效理论的平面压入技术可精确测得DMWJ低合金钢母材、热影响区和焊缝局部材料应力-应变关系,对压水堆核电站DMWJ在役检测及结构完整性评价具有重要意义。