京沪高速铁路地震预警系统的方案及关键参数研究

京沪高速铁路及沿线区域跨越 4个主要的地震带 ,带内地震活动活跃 ,地震是对高速列车行车安全危害最大的自然灾害。在对京沪高速铁路及沿线区域地震危险性调查的基础上 ,对地震预警系统的构成、监测设备的设置方案及报警模式等一些关键问题进行了研究。通过对京沪高速铁路各类典型构筑物的大量的地震响应统计分析 ,给出了机械式地震仪的预警水平 ,并提出了适于P波检测的M -R判别标准 ,为京沪高速铁路安全监控系统中地震预警系统的建设提供理论依据。     

C6H12N4+Mg+KClO4+SrSO4系统的振荡控制和安全分析

从实验和数值分析两方面研究了C6Hl2N 4+Mg+KClO4+SrSO4反应系统的振荡燃烧现象,并对反应机理进行了深层次的分析.结果表明,振荡燃烧是由化学动力学的非线性反馈引起的,即:反应系统中镁的三相与氧气的相互竞争反应造成系统的非线性化学振荡燃烧.氧化剂和可燃剂的比值,以及频率调节剂等吸热物质可调节气相镁的生成速率,能有效地控制药剂的振荡频率.选取适当的控制参数,可以使反应按照预定的、安全的过程进行,避免爆燃的产生.本文的研究结果对化工、军事等领域的安全控制具有重要意义.     

内燃机曲轴系振动响应的多体系统动力学分析方法

介绍了运用多体系统动力学进行内燃机曲轴系振动响应分析的方法.通过综合运用CAD建模、有限元分析以及机械系统仿真等技术,可以建立包括曲轴柔性体以及随曲轴一起转动的零件刚性体在内的整个曲轴系的模型,计算零件间的相互作用,分析曲轴的动态变形.建立了某车用内燃机曲轴系的多体系统动力学模型,并对其振动响应进行了计算.     

城市生活垃圾综合处理前分选系统设计

本文以江油市城市生活垃圾处理厂为工程实例,介绍了垃圾前分选系统中的垃圾储料车间、行车与抓斗、垃圾上料机构、双层振动筛以及人工分选平台的工艺设计参数及设计依据,并在此基础上提出了该系统的改进建议.     

江苏省城市防汛决策支持系统研究

在分析江苏省城市防汛问题的基础上，设计了其防汛决策支持系统；根据江苏省城市洪涝灾情特点研建和选用了适宜的数学模型，该模型可以迅速、可靠和正确地模拟城市雨情、水情、灾情的发展过程和可能后果，为城市防汛决策提供多层次的信息服务和多种支持手段。     

三论灾害研究的理论与实践

在作者分别于 1991年发表的《论灾害研究的理论与实践》和 1996年发表的《再论灾害研究的理论与实践》的基础上 ,评述了最近 6年来灾害科学研究的进展 ,提出了灾害科学的基本框架 ,进一步完善了“区域灾害系统论”的理论体系 ,提出了当前灾害科学的主要学术前沿问题。文章并就资源开发与灾情形成机理与动态变化过程进行了综合分析 ,阐述了区域灾害的形成过程 ,进一步从区域可持续发展的角度 ,就建设安全社区 (区域 )提出了“允许灾害风险水平”的区域发展对策。     

基于洪水灾害快速评估的承灾体易损性信息管理系统

洪水灾害易损性信息管理系统是为了开展洪水灾害快速评估,对不同洪水灾害流域和同一洪水灾害流域中的不同地区、不同承灾体(财产分类)、不同致灾因子(水深和历时等)条件,以财产的损失率为核心的综合信息管理系统。本文介绍了洪水灾害易损性信息管理系统的开发与设计的基本原理,阐述了系统的总体结构框架和功能模块划分,并且在系统数据流程图的基础上,对损失率数据库等几个重要的模块进行了详细的分析与设计,给出了系统的部分运行结果。本系统在与GIS、遥感等空间技术结合后,能够高效地完成各种洪水灾害损失的快速评估与预测分析工作,同时,本系统亦可独立作为对区域洪水灾害易损性研究的数据基础和理论支撑。     

鄱阳湖洪灾特征与圩区还湖减灾运用方式研究

根据水文资料,分析了鄱阳湖入湖五大河流来水与长江水情对鄱阳湖洪灾的影响和鄱阳湖洪水位的频率特征,探讨了湖区中小圩区"高水还湖滞洪,低水种植养殖"的减灾运行方式对湖区防洪减灾可以起到的作用。     

AN ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF GROUND WATER RECHARGE IN THE TUCSON BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Bringing water from Colorado River via the Central Arizona Project was perceived as the sole solution for Tucson Basin's water problem. Soon after Central Arizona Project's water arrived in Tucson in 1992, its quality provoked a quarrel over its use for potable purposes. A significant outcome of that quarrel was the enactment of the 1995 Proposition 200. The Proposition 200 precludes the use of Central Arizona Project's water for potable purposes, unless it is treated. Yet, it encourages using it for non‐potable purposes and for replenishing the Tucson aquifer through recharge. This paper examines the economic issues involved in utilizing Central Arizona Project's water for recharge. Four planning scenarios were designed to measure and compare the costs and benefits with and without Central Arizona Project's water recharge. Cost‐benefit analysis was utilized to measure recharge costs and benefits and to derive a rough estimate of cost savings from preventing land subsidence. The results indicate that the institutional requirements can be met with Central Arizona Project's water recharge. The economic benefits from reducing pumping cost and saving groundwater are not economically significant. Yet, when combining the use of Central Arizona Project's water for recharge and non‐potable purposes, it demonstrates positive net economic benefits.     

PRECIPITATION CHANGES FROM 1956 TO 1996 ON THE WALNUT GULCH EXPERIMENTAL WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: The climate of Southern Arizona is dominated by summer precipitation, which accounts for over 60 percent of the annual total. Summer and non‐summer precipitation data from the USDA‐ARS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed are analyzed to identify trends in precipitation characteristics from 1956 to 1996. During this period, annual precipitation increased. The annual precipitation increase can be attributed to an increase in precipitation during non‐summer months, and is paralleled by an increase in the proportion of annual precipitation contributed during non‐summer months. This finding is consistent with previously reported increases in non‐summer precipitation in the southwestern United States. Detailed event data were analyzed to provide insight into the characteristics of precipitation events during this time period. Precipitation event data were characterized based on the number of events, event precipitation amount, 30‐minute event intensity, and event duration. The trend in non‐summer precipitation appears to be a result of increased event frequency since the number of events increased during nonsummer months, although the average amount per event, average event intensity, and average event duration did not. During the summer “monsoon” season, the frequency of recorded precipitation events increased but the average precipitation amount per event decreased. Knowledge of precipitation trends and the characteristics of events that make up a precipitation time series is a critical first step in understanding and managing water resources in semiarid ecosystems.