灾变性事件引起的消费品产业链价格波及效应研究

为了研究地震等灾变性事件对于消费品产业链内价格传递和市场的影响,本文利用从2008年2月至2009年3月四川省江油市畜产业链进行实证研究,使用向量纠错模型（VECM）和历史分解图（HDG）分析了价格调整的动态效果和沿产业链的因果关系。结果表明,价格的调整关于速度和大小都是不对称的,外生震荡对于该产业链的不同层面产生不同影响,导致价格差益的扩大和价格不完全传递。该方法能够有效地分析灾变事件条件下消费品产业链内价格波及效应问题。     

中国地区经济差距及其演化的产业变动因素

20世纪90年代以来中国地区经济差距扩大具有深刻的产业变动原因。以人均GDP为基本指标,通过对基尼系数进行产业分解和对泰尔指数进行地区分解,深刻分析了1990~2004年中国地区经济差距的动态变化、地区构成和产业构成,揭示了中国地区经济差距及其演变的产业结构变动与产业地区集中因素。结果表明,1990年以来中国地区经济差距的决定性因素是第二产业发展水平的地区差距,而非农产业向东部沿海地区的集中又是推动中国地区经济差距扩大的主导性因素。20世纪90年代以来,随着以制造业为主的非农产业向东部沿海地区集中,中西部地区逐渐沦落为以农业与采掘业为主的外围区域,中国的地区经济差距也由此持续扩大。基于此,认为缩小地区差距的关键是推进中西部地区制造业发展,缓解非农产业地区分布的不平衡状况。     

中亚热带马尾松林凋落物分解过程中的微生物与酶活性动态

采用凋落物原位分解法,研究了中亚热带马尾松林中马尾松、槲栎凋落叶单独及混合(自然质量比8∶2)分解过程中的微生物数量与酶活性动态.结果表明:①3类凋落物的年分解常数K的大小为:混合凋落物(0.94)>槲栎凋落物(0.86)>马尾松凋落物(0.67);②3类凋落物真菌数量和微生物数量均在夏季(135 d时)达到最大值,而此时细菌和放线菌数量最低;③3类凋落物纤维素酶活性、酸性磷酸酶活性均与凋落物干重剩余率呈显著正相关(P<0.05),而马尾松与混合型凋落物中的多酚氧化酶活性同凋落物干重剩余率呈极显著负相关(P<0.01);④微生物数量和多酚氧化酶活性均总体表现为槲栎凋落物>混合凋落物>马尾松凋落物,酸性磷酸酶活性多表现为槲栎凋落物最低,与分解常数K排列有一定的差异,说明凋落物分解是微生物和多种酶共同作用的结果.整体研究表明,凋落物质量和季节气候的差异显著影响微生物群落及其调控的生态过程,与纯马尾松凋落叶相比,针阔混合使微生物数量和多酚氧化酶活性显著提高,这可能是导致分解加快的重要原因.     

基于LMDI中国省域氮氧化物减排与实现路径研究

首先基于Kaya恒等式,利用对数平均Divisia指数分解模型(LMDI法)将氮氧化物排放分解为排放因子、能源强度、经济结构、能源结构和经济发展5个因素;其次通过模型得出的脱钩系数运用构建四象限法评价"十二五"期间中国30个省市脱钩空间差异,研究各省市氮氧化物减排表现、分析减排潜力和减排影响因素,为国家"十三五"制定差异化的区域氮氧化物减排目标和寻找多元化的氮氧化物减排途径提供有益参考.研究结果表明:经济增长是促进氮氧化物排放量增加的决定因素,能源强度降低是抑制氮氧化物增排的决定因素,经济结构优化和能源结构调整具有较大促进氮氧化物减排潜力;中国氮氧化物排放与经济增长脱钩空间分异明显,大部分省市经济发展与氮氧化物排放处于脱钩状态,部分省市弱脱钩状态.同时,中国氮氧化物排放与经济增长脱钩系数呈现逐年上升趋势,2010—2015年中国各省市氮氧化物排放脱钩空间分布由较弱、中脱钩为主至中、较强脱钩为主再到较强脱钩为主,呈现区域间"异质化"和区域内"均质化"的趋势.国家氮氧化物后续减排任务应多分解在中脱钩或弱脱钩(减排潜力大)省市,对相邻的省份制定协同减排计划,且主要通过提高能源利用效率、同时优化经济结构和能源消费结构实现其最优减排.     

水热法制备玉米叶基生物炭对亚甲基蓝的吸附性能研究

以农业废弃物玉米叶和玉米秆为原材料,采用水热法制备生物炭,通过批试验方法考察了接触时间、污染物初始浓度、生物炭投加量、反应体系温度及溶液p H值等因素对2种生物炭吸附亚甲基蓝的影响,并对吸附规律进行了探讨.吸附动力学拟合结果发现,准二级动力学能更好地拟合吸附过程(R~2=0.9986~0.9999);颗粒内扩散方程拟合结果表明,2种生物炭对亚甲基蓝的吸附由液膜扩散和颗粒内扩散2个过程控制.玉米叶基生物炭对亚甲基蓝的吸附可以通过Freundlich方程来进行拟合(R~2=0.9898),说明吸附在生物炭表面是多分子层吸附过程;而玉米杆基生物炭对亚甲基蓝的吸附更符合Langmuir方程(R~2=0.9825),说明吸附在生物炭表面是单分子层吸附过程.与玉米杆基生物炭相比,玉米叶基生物炭具有更好的吸附性能,拟合理论最大吸附量为玉米杆基生物炭的1.25倍.     

Analysis of long-term changes in the dates of seasonal phenomena in plants and insects of the Il’men Reserve as related to climatic factors

The results of monitoring the dates of the onset of flowering and leaf budding in eight herbaceous and woody plant species and the first appearance of three insect species in the Il’men Reserve (1972–2005) were processed by means of regression and correlation analyses. No significant changes in test parameters were revealed in the majority of these species. Only two early spring plants, coltsfoot (Tussilago farfara L.) and goat willow (Salix caprea L.), showed a weak tendency toward earlier flowering in the 1980s and 1990s. This is explained primarily by the absence of any significant trends in spring and summer air temperatures in the study region over the observation period. On the other hand, interannual fluctuations in the dates of plant flowering and insect appearance were well manifested not only in early spring but also in late-spring species. These fluctuations proved to depend largely on spring temperatures: in years with early and warm springs, flowering and leaf budding in plants and the appearance of first individuals in insects were recorded on significantly earlier dates.     

Distribution and persistence of carbaryl in some terrestrial and aquatic components of a forest environment

Abstract

An oil‐based formulation of carbaryl (1‐naphthyl N‐methyl‐carbamate) (Sevin‐2‐Oil) was applied twice by a fixed‐wing aircraft at a dosage rate of 280 g of A.I./ha/application to a coniferous forest near Allardville, New Brunswick. The highest concentrations of the chemical in fir foliage, litter and forest soil 1 h after application were respectively 4.20, 1.21 and 0.59 ppm (fresh weight). The residues dissipated rapidly and the DT50 values obtained from the depletion curves were 2.3 d for foliage and 1.5 d for litter and soil samples. Very low levels (<0.1 ppm) of carbaryl persisted in foliage and litter beyond the 10 d sampling period. The maximum residue level found in stream water was 0.314 ppm and more than 50% of it had dissipated within 1 h. Low but detectable levels (0.001 ppm) of the chemical persisted in water until the end of the 10 d sampling period. Sediment samples contained a maximum level of 0.04 ppm, which dissipated below the detection limit within 5 h. Brook trout and slimy sculpins captured in the stream 1 d after the spray contained on average about 0.04 ppm of carbaryl and none of it was found in 3 d postspray samples.     

Leaching,mobility and persistence of tebufenozide in columns packed with forest litter and soil

Abstract

Leaching, downward mobility and persistence of tebufenozide was investigated under laboratory conditions in columns packed with forest litter and soil, after fortification with the analytical grade material (purity > 99.6%) and with two commercial formulations, RH‐5992 2F (aqueous flowable) and RH‐5992 ES (emulsion suspension). Two types of litter and soil were used: one type with relatively high amounts of sand and the other with high amounts of clay.

The concentrations eluted in the leachates were lower when the analytical material (dissolved in acetone) was used for fortification, than when the two formulations (diluted with water) were used. The amount leached was higher for RH‐5992 2F than for RH‐5992 ES. The type of substrate, i.e., sandy or clay type, had only marginal influence on the amounts eluted in the leachates. Downward movement of tebufenozide from the top 2‐cm layer to the untreated middle and bottom layers (3‐cm segments) was consistently lower when the analytical material was used for fortification, than when the two formulations were used. Downward movement was higher for RH‐5992 2F than for RH‐5992 ES. Persistence of tebufenozide in substrates, maintained under submerged conditions for 70 days after leaching, indicated an initial 2‐week lag period prior to the onset of degradation. Formulation‐related differences were observed in the half‐life (DT₅₀) values. When the analytical material was used for fortification, the DT₅₀ ranged from ca 54 to 59 d. However, when the formulations were used for fortification, the DT₅₀ showed a higher range, i.e., from ca 62 to 67 d for RH‐5992 2F and ca 70 to 80 d for RH‐5992 ES. Formulation ingredients appear to have caused enhanced adsorption of tebufenozide onto the substrates, thus delaying degradation.     

纳米铝粉对烟火药剂热安全性影响研究

为研究铝粉纳米化后对烟火药剂性能的影响，本文将普通铝粉和纳米铝粉分别与氯酸钾、硫粉按照零氧平衡的同一配比（17％AL＋63％KClO3＋20％S）配成的烟火药剂进行ARC热分析对比试验发现，含纳米铝粉的烟火药剂热分解的初始反应温度降低，反应到达最大温升速率所需的时间延长，反应所能达到的最高压力降低。这说明纳米铝粉的加入在加速其反应进程的同时，可有效地降低其反应的激烈程度和危险性，即铝粉纳米化后可以有效的改善烟火药剂的性能，提高其安全性。     

Recovery of a marker strain of Salmonella typhimurium in litter and aerosols from isolation rooms containing infected chickens

Abstract

Screening of poultry flocks for foodborne pathogen Salmonella contamination is critical for Salmonella control in preharvest stages of poultry production. In this study, two sampling methods (litter and air filter) were compared for detection of S. typhimurium from experimentally infected chicks some of which had received either a probiotic competitive exclusion culture or transfer of cecal contents from salmonellae‐free adult birds. At 4, 9, and 11 days after inoculation, S. typhimurium samples were enumerated by selective plating. For both types of sampling, the control birds yielded the greatest levels of environmental contamination followed by the samples from the probiotic inoculated birds with the birds receiving the cecal transfer culture having the lowest levels of contamination. Although the two sampling methods responded in a similar fashion, detection sensitivity needs to be increased for air filter sampling.