模型预测在土地利用规划中的应用

阐述了4种预测模型的原理，并以新疆喀什市的城市用地预测为例，通过时间序列建立了4种预测模型，对城市用地实际值进行预测与分析，从而得出各种模型的特点。认为只有选择最适合的预测模型，才能为土地利用规划提供科学依据。     

AQUIFER MANAGEMENT UNDER TRANSIENT AND STEADY-STATE CONDITIONS1

ABSTRACT: The equations of transient and steady-state flow in two-dimensional artesian aquifers are approximated using finite differences. The resulting linear difference equations, combined with other linear physical and management constraints and a linear objective function, comprise a linear programming (LP) formulation. Solutions of such LP models are used to determine optimal well distributions and pumping rates to meet given management objectives for a hypothetical transient problem and for a steady-state field problem.     

THE USE OF MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODELS IN PREDICTING SEDIMENT YIELD1

ABSTRACT. Four commonly used models for predicting sediment yield are analyzed and compared using previously published data. Three of these models involve logarithmic transformations. Some of the problems involved in transforming data are discussed in the context of logarithmic transformations. These problems are illustrated using the results of standard regression analyses and economic loss function analyses. For the data analyzed, the linear model is preferable to each of the logarithmic models on the basis of each analysis, and the usual multiple objective nature of the model choice problem is thus modified. The extent to which these results can be generalized is discussed in the context of model choice.     

Fuzzy goal programming for biodiesel production

ABSTRACT

The energy consumed around the world and especially in Morocco is dominated by oil products. The latter; whether in the global or the national context; are mainly due to diesel, whose climate impacts are well established, suggesting the search for a greener alternative. Despite its virtues, biodiesel is struggling to impose itself for purely economic reasons. Thus, in order to offer a sustainable solution, while keeping in mind the unpredictable fluctuations (price, demand …). This work proposes a generalization of fuzzy goal programming into fully fuzzy goal programming and a relative application, where the aim is to have a final product at a competitive price.     

固相萃取—气相色谱法测定水样中痕量正构烷烃的研究

以正构烷烃为目标化合物,研究了影响固相萃取效率的某些因素,采用双柱串联模式评价了固定相的保留效果,探讨了有机改性剂对固相萃取效率的重要影响及作用机理,建立了水样中痕量正构烷烃的分析方法.在实验条件下,对于正构烷烃含量为250(g/I的水样,方法的平均回收率为98.5%,相对标准偏差为9.9%(n=5).     

Characterizing the Spatial Pattern of Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Pools in the Turkey Lakes Watershed: A Comparison of Regression Techniques

There is considerable spatial heterogeneity in organic carbon (C), total nitrogen (N), and potentially mineralizable nitrogen (PMN) pools in the soils of the Turkey Lakes Watershed. We hypothesized that topography regulates the spatial pattern of these pools through a combination of static factors (slope, aspect and elevation), which influence radiation, temperature andmoisture conditions, and dynamic factors (catenary position,profile and planar curvature), which influence the transport ofmaterials downslope. We used multiple linear regression (MLR)and tree regression (TR) models as exploratory techniques todetermine if there was a topographic basis for the spatialpattern of the C, N and PMN pools. The MLR and TR modelspredicted similar integrated totals (i.e., within 5% of eachother) but dissimilar spatial patterns of the pools. For thecombined litter, fibric and hemic layer, the MLR models explaineda significant portion of the variance (R² = 0.38, 0.23 and0.28 for C, N and PMN, respectively), however, the residuals werelarge and biased (the smallest contents were over-predicted andthe largest contents were under-predicted). The TR models (9-branch), in contrast, explained a greater portion of the variance (R² = 0.75, 0.67 and 0.62 for C, N and PMN, respectively) and the residuals were smaller and unbiased. Based on our sampling strategy, the models suggested that static factors were most important in predicting the spatial pattern of the nutrient pools. However, a nested sampling strategy that included scales where both static (among hillslopes) and dynamic (within hillslope) factors result in a systematic variation in soil nutrient pools may have improvedthe predictive ability of the models.     

SPATIAL VARIABILITY IN WATER‐BALANCE MODEL PERFORMANCE IN THE CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: A monthly water‐balance (WB) model was tested in 44 river basins from diverse physiographic and climatic regions across the conterminous United States (U.S.). The WB model includes the concepts of climatic water supply and climatic water demand, seasonality in climatic water supply and demand, and soil‐moisture storage. Exhaustive search techniques were employed to determine the optimal set of precipitation and temperature stations, and the optimal set of WB model parameters to use for each basin. It was found that the WB model worked best for basins with: (1) a mean elevation less than 450 meters or greater than 2000 meters, and/or (2) monthly runoff that is greater than 5 millimeters (mm) more than 80 percent of the time. In a separate analysis, a multiple linear regression (MLR) was computed using the adjusted R‐square values obtained by comparing measured and estimated monthly runoff of the original 44 river basins as the dependent variable, and combinations of various independent variables [streamflow gauge latitude, longitude, and elevation; basin area, the long‐term mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation; temperature and runoff; and low‐flow statistics (i.e., the percentage of months with monthly runoff that is less than 5 mm)]. Results from the MLR study showed that the reliability of a WB model for application in a specific region can be estimated from mean basin elevation and the percentage of months with gauged runoff less than 5 mm. The MLR equations were subsequently used to estimate adjusted R‐square values for 1,646 gauging stations across the conterminous U.S. Results of this study indicate that WB models can be used reliably to estimate monthly runoff in the eastern U.S., mountainous areas of the western U.S., and the Pacific Northwest. Applications of monthly WB models in the central U.S. can lead to uncertain estimates of runoff.     

原油在盐水中的溶解度研究

为了弄清污染事故的污染程度及影响因素,对原油在盐水中的溶解度进行了研究;采用正交实验方法,选定四个主要影响因素：水温、水深度、放置时间及油膜厚度,每个因素取三个水平。实验结果表明：影响水中油浓度最显著的因素是油膜厚度,显著因素是温度和水深度,次要因素是放置时间;研究结果可为污染事故的应急水处理提供依据。     

Non linear dynamic behaviours and chaos of environ economic system

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History Matters: Relating Land-Use Change to Butterfly Species Occurrence

Western European landscapes have drastically changed since the 1950s, with agricultural intensifications and the spread of urban settlements considered the most important drivers of this land-use/land-cover change. Losses of habitat for fauna and flora have been a direct consequence of this development. In the present study, we relate butterfly occurrence to land-use/land-cover changes over five decades between 1951 and 2000. The study area covers the entire Swiss territory. The 10 explanatory variables originate from agricultural statistics and censuses. Both state as well as rate was used as explanatory variables. Species distribution data were obtained from natural history collections. We selected eight butterfly species: four species occur on wetlands and four occur on dry grasslands. We used cluster analysis to track land-use/land-cover changes and to group communes based on similar trajectories of change. Generalized linear models were applied to identify factors that were significantly correlated with the persistence or disappearance of butterfly species. Results showed that decreasing agricultural areas and densities of farms with more than 10 ha of cultivated land are significantly related with wetland species decline, and increasing densities of livestock seem to have favored disappearance of dry grassland species. Moreover, we show that species declines are not only dependent on land-use/land-cover states but also on the rates of change; that is, the higher the transformation rate from small to large farms, the higher the loss of dry grassland species. We suggest that more attention should be paid to the rates of landscape change as feasible drivers of species change and derive some management suggestions.