中国降水酸度预测模型

利用逐步多元线性回归方法建立了中国降水酸度预测模型。该模型包括：大气中二氧化硫、氮氧化物和总悬浮颗粒物的浓度、单位面积二氧化硫排放量这四个时间和空间变量;地理位置横向坐标、降雨量和辐射强度这三个空间变量。该模型通过回顾检验具有较好的预测精度并在假设未来中国环境状况的基础上,对降水酸度的分布进行了预测。该模型是在地理信息系统工具软件ARC/INFO支持下运行的,其预测方法及结果具有空间特性。     

Evaluating the impact of caribou habitat restoration on predator and prey movement

Fragmentation of the boreal forest by linear features, including seismic lines, has destabilized predator–prey dynamics, resulting in the decline of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) populations. Restoration of human-altered habitat has therefore been identified as a critical management tool for achieving self-sustaining woodland caribou populations. However, only recently has testing of the response of caribou and other wildlife to restoration activities been conducted. Early work has centered around assessing changes in wildlife use of restored seismic lines. We evaluated whether restoration reduces the movement rates of predators and their associated prey, which is expected to decrease predator hunting efficiency and ultimately reduce caribou mortality. We developed a new method for using cameras to measure fine-scale movement by measuring speed as animals traveled between cameras in an array. We used our method to quantify speed of caribou, moose (Alces alces), bears (Ursus americanus), and wolves (Canis lupus) on treated (restored) and untreated seismic lines. Restoration treatments reduced travel speeds along seismic lines of wolves by 1.38 km/h, bears by 0.55 km/h, and caribou by 1.57 km/h, but did not reduce moose travel speeds. Reduced predator and caribou speeds on treated seismic lines are predicted to decrease encounter rates between predators and caribou and thus lower caribou kill rates. However, further work is needed to determine whether reduced movement rates result in reduced encounter rates with prey, and ultimately reduced caribou mortality.     

总量控制与线性规划

探索了运用运筹学的线性规划解决环境保护中出现的多约束条件、多变量问题的方法,同时论证了总量控制理论的实际 意义。     

Receptor modeling for source apportionment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in urban atmosphere

This study reports source apportionment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in particulate depositions on vegetation foliages near highway in the urban environment of Lucknow city (India) using the principal components analysis/absolute principal components scores (PCA/APCS) receptor modeling approach. The multivariate method enables identification of major PAHs sources along with their quantitative contributions with respect to individual PAH. The PCA identified three major sources of PAHs viz. combustion, vehicular emissions, and diesel based activities. The PCA/APCS receptor modeling approach revealed that the combustion sources (natural gas, wood, coal/coke, biomass) contributed 19–97% of various PAHs, vehicular emissions 0–70%, diesel based sources 0–81% and other miscellaneous sources 0–20% of different PAHs. The contributions of major pyrolytic and petrogenic sources to the total PAHs were 56 and 42%, respectively. Further, the combustion related sources contribute major fraction of the carcinogenic PAHs in the study area. High correlation coefficient (R ² > 0.75 for most PAHs) between the measured and predicted concentrations of PAHs suggests for the applicability of the PCA/APCS receptor modeling approach for estimation of source contribution to the PAHs in particulates.     

Aggressive driving: a survey of attitudes, opinions and behaviors

INTRODUCTION: Aggressive driving encompasses a continuum of behaviors that range from extreme acts, such as shootings, to less severe manifestations, such as arguments and gestures. It is clear from the available data that aggressive driving is not uncommon and very risky. However, little is known about the opinions and practices of drivers. The purpose of this study was to help bridge these gaps. METHODS: The data were gathered by means of a public opinion poll among a representative sample of 1,201 Canadian drivers. Univariate frequency distributions and 95% confidence intervals were calculated and logistic regression and generalized linear latent models were used to summarize the data. RESULTS: It was found that the issue of aggressive driving is a significant one as a considerable percentage of drivers admits to it. The results coming from the logistic regression and the generalized linear latent model suggest that male and younger drivers are more likely to behave aggressively in traffic and that behaving more aggressively is associated with a history of traffic tickets. DISCUSSION: When gauging people's attitudes, opinions, and behaviors, it becomes clear that aggressive driving is a considerable problem. There also seems to be a need for a better understanding of which specific behaviors respondents associate with the generic term "aggressive driving." IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Results from this study further emphasize the need of increasing the aggressive driving knowledge base.     

Grouping Lakes for Water Quality Assessment and Monitoring: The Roles of Regionalization and Spatial Scale

Regionalization frameworks cluster geographic data to create contiguous regions of similar climate, geology and hydrology by delineating land into discrete regions, such as ecoregions or watersheds, often at several spatial scales. Although most regionalization schemes were not originally designed for aquatic ecosystem classification or management, they are often used for such purposes, with surprisingly few explicit tests of the relative ability of different regionalization frameworks to group lakes for water quality monitoring and assessment. We examined which of 11 different lake grouping schemes at two spatial scales best captures the maximum amount of variation in water quality among regions for total nutrients, water clarity, chlorophyll, overall trophic state, and alkalinity in 479 lakes in Michigan (USA). We conducted analyses on two data sets: one that included all lakes and one that included only minimally disturbed lakes. Using hierarchical linear models that partitioned total variance into within-region and among-region components, we found that ecological drainage units and 8-digit hydrologic units most consistently captured among-region heterogeneity at their respective spatial scales using all lakes (variation among lake groups = 3% to 50% and 12% to 52%, respectively). However, regionalization schemes capture less among-region variance for minimally disturbed lakes. Diagnostics of spatial autocorrelation provided insight into the relative performance of regionalization frameworks but also demonstrated that region size is only partly responsible for capturing variation among lakes. These results suggest that regionalization schemes can provide useful frameworks for lake water quality assessment and monitoring but that we must identify the appropriate spatial scale for the questions being asked, the type of management applied, and the metrics being assessed.     

基于农用地分等成果的产能核算——以湖南、河南、黑龙江为例

研究目的:分析农用地质量与粮食生产能力之间的关系。研究方法:主要应用样点的标准粮产量与土地利用等别指数进行回归分析,根据回归分析所得的线性关系推算出3省的粮食总产量。研究结论:通过农用地分等成果进行产能核算具有一定的科学性,可在已经进行农用地分等的省份进行推广应用。     

厦门市空气质量臭氧预报和评估系统

为了评价和预测厦门市区空气中臭氧的污染水平,运用2006～2009年的监测数据对臭氧的污染成因及其变化规律进行研究。通过风向、风速、气温、湿度等气象因子对臭氧浓度影响的分析,进而运用多元线性回归法建立厦门市臭氧预报及评估系统。     

PM2.5全自动重量法监测仪测量准确度评估

BTPM-AS1PM_(2.5)全自动重量法监测仪是一种根据PM_(2.5)手工重量法原理设计的PM_(2.5)自动监测仪器,能够实现样品采集、滤膜平衡、滤膜称重等环节的自动化。采用线性回归分析法对PM_(2.5)全自动重量法监测仪器的监测结果与PM_(2.5)连续自动监测仪器、手工标准方法进行比对分析,讨论了该原理仪器的流量准确性、滤膜平衡效果、天平稳定性。结果显示:PM_(2.5)全自动重量法仪器监测结果与PM_(2.5)连续自动监测仪器、手工重量法监测结果的相关系数为0.927 2~0.994 1,监测结果之间具有较高的一致性,并且其样品采集、滤膜平衡、滤膜称重等关键环节的主要技术指标能够满足中国PM_(2.5)手工标准测定方法的相关要求。     

15MV医用电子直线加速器感生放射性影响分析

对于电子能量大于10MeV的医用电子直线加速器,每次开机治疗完成后会产生感生放射性,可能对机房工作人员及附近公众产生辐射危害。本文对某医院15MV电子直线加速器运行后感生放射性进行量化,并由此估算可能对周围人员造成的辐射剂量。通过探讨,希望在对加速器产生的感生放射性影响评价时有参考意义。