A reflection on four impactful Ambio papers: The biotic perspective: This article belongs to Ambio’s 50th Anniversary Collection. Theme: Climate change impacts

Climate change represents one of the most pressing societal and scientific challenges of our time. While much of the current research on climate change focuses on future prediction, some of the strongest signals of warming can already be seen in Arctic and alpine areas, where temperatures are rising faster than the global average, and in the oceans, where the combination of rising temperatures and acidification due to increased CO₂ concentrations has had catastrophic consequences for sensitive marine organisms inhabiting coral reefs. The scientific papers highlighted as part of this anniversary issue represent some of the most impactful advances in our understanding of the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. Here, we reflect on the legacy of these papers from the biotic perspective.     

Parks versus PES: Evaluating direct and incentive-based land conservation in Mexico

Protected areas (PAs) and payments for ecosystem services (PES) are the top two mechanisms available for countries to achieve international REDD agreements, yet there are few empirical comparisons of their effects. We estimate the impacts of PAs and PES on forest conservation, poverty reduction, and population change at the locality level in Mexico in the 2000s. Both policies conserved forest, generating an approximately 20–25% reduction in expected forest cover loss. PES created statistically significant but small poverty alleviation while PAs had overall neutral impacts on livelihoods. Estimates by individual policy type for the same level of deforestation risk indicate that biosphere reserves and PES balanced conservation and livelihood goals better than strict protected areas or mixed-use areas. This suggests that both direct and incentive-based instruments can be effective, and that policies combining sustainable financing, flexible zoning, and recognition of local economic goals are more likely to achieve conservation without harming livelihoods.     

Landscape trajectory of natural boreal forest loss as an impediment to green infrastructure

Loss of natural forests by forest clearcutting has been identified as a critical conservation challenge worldwide. This study addressed forest fragmentation and loss in the context of the establishment of a functional green infrastructure as a spatiotemporally connected landscape-scale network of habitats enhancing biodiversity, favorable conservation status, and ecosystem services. Through retrospective analysis of satellite images, we assessed a 50- to 60-year spatiotemporal clearcutting impact trajectory on natural and near-natural boreal forests across a sizable and representative region from the Gulf of Bothnia to the Scandinavian Mountain Range in northern Fennoscandia. This period broadly covers the whole forest clearcutting period; thus, our approach and results can be applied to comprehensive impact assessment of industrial forest management. The entire study region covers close to 46,000 km² of forest-dominated landscape in a late phase of transition from a natural or near-natural to a land-use modified state. We found a substantial loss of intact forest, in particular of large, contiguous areas, a spatial polarization of remaining forest on regional scale where the inland has been more severely affected than the mountain and coastal zones, and a pronounced impact on interior forest core areas. Salient results were a decrease in area of the largest intact forest patch from 225,853 to 68,714 ha in the mountain zone and from 257,715 to 38,668 ha in the foothills zone, a decrease from 75% to 38% intact forest in the inland zones, a decrease in largest patch core area (assessed by considering 100-m patch edge disturbance) from 6114 to 351 ha in the coastal zone, and a geographic imbalance in protected forest with an evident predominance in the mountain zone. These results demonstrate profound disturbance of configuration of the natural forest landscape and disrupted connectivity, which challenges the establishment of functional green infrastructure. Our approach supports the identification of forests for expanded protection and conservation-oriented forest landscape restoration.     

Village-scale reserves in the forest frontier regions of Chenes and Calakmul,Mexico

ABSTRACT

Sketch-map-facilitated interviews were conducted in 23 villages in two adjacent regions in the southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico – the Maya (and increasingly Mennonite) forest-agriculture mosaic of the Chenes, and the late-20^th-century-settlement forest frontier of Calakmul – to determine the frequency and typology of local-scale reserves, including the external (e.g. Payments for Environmental Services programs) and internal sources of their generation. 9% of the study communities are found to satisfy the author’s criteria for deliberate, autochthonous reserves. The static polygon reserve and static map are found to have limited value for understanding the evolving cultural ecologies of these regions. Alternative approaches are discussed, particularly those employed by geographers.     

Effectiveness of conservation easements in agricultural regions

Conservation easements are a standard technique for preventing habitat loss, particularly in agricultural regions with extensive cropland cultivation, yet little is known about their effectiveness. I developed a spatial econometric approach to propensity‐score matching and used the approach to estimate the amount of habitat loss prevented by a grassland conservation easement program of the U.S. federal government. I used a spatial autoregressive probit model to predict tract enrollment in the easement program as of 2001 based on tract agricultural suitability, habitat quality, and spatial interactions among neighboring tracts. Using the predicted values from the model, I matched enrolled tracts with similar unenrolled tracts to form a treatment group and a control group. To measure the program's impact on subsequent grassland loss, I estimated cropland cultivation rates for both groups in 2014 with a second spatial probit model. Between 2001 and 2014, approximately 14.9% of control tracts were cultivated and 0.3% of treated tracts were cultivated. Therefore, approximately 14.6% of the protected land would have been cultivated in the absence of the program. My results demonstrate that conservation easements can significantly reduce habitat loss in agricultural regions; however, the enrollment of tracts with low cropland suitability may constrain the amount of habitat loss they prevent. My results also show that spatial econometric models can improve the validity of control groups and thereby strengthen causal inferences about program effectiveness in situations when spatial interactions influence conservation decisions.     

Implications of Macroalgal Isolation by Distance for Networks of Marine Protected Areas

The global extent of macroalgal forests is declining, greatly affecting marine biodiversity at broad scales through the effects macroalgae have on ecosystem processes, habitat provision, and food web support. Networks of marine protected areas comprise one potential tool that may safeguard gene flow among macroalgal populations in the face of increasing population fragmentation caused by pollution, habitat modification, climate change, algal harvesting, trophic cascades, and other anthropogenic stressors. Optimal design of protected area networks requires knowledge of effective dispersal distances for a range of macroalgae. We conducted a global meta‐analysis based on data in the published literature to determine the generality of relation between genetic differentiation and geographic distance among macroalgal populations. We also examined whether spatial genetic variation differed significantly with respect to higher taxon, life history, and habitat characteristics. We found clear evidence of population isolation by distance across a multitude of macroalgal species. Genetic and geographic distance were positively correlated across 49 studies; a modal distance of 50–100 km maintained F_ST < 0.2. This relation was consistent for all algal divisions, life cycles, habitats, and molecular marker classes investigated. Incorporating knowledge of the spatial scales of gene flow into the design of marine protected area networks will help moderate anthropogenic increases in population isolation and inbreeding and contribute to the resilience of macroalgal forests. Implicaciones del Aislamiento por Distancia de Macroalgas para Redes de Áreas Marinas Protegidas     

新乡市地表水体HCHs和DDTs的分布特征及生态风险评价

为了解新乡市地表水中HCHs和DDTs的分布特征及生态风险,采集新乡市18个地表水样并测定其中HCHs和DDTs的含量,采用概率密度函数重叠面积法和安全阈值法评价了HCHs和DDTs的生态风险.结果表明,新乡市地表水中HCHs和DDTs的质量浓度范围分别为1.28~49.2 ng·L-1和0.42~12.3 ng·L-1,与世界各地的地表水中HCHs和DDTs残留质量浓度相比属于中等污染水平.异构体比值表明HCHs污染的主要来源是林丹的使用,而DDTs的残留来源于工业品DDTs的使用.生态风险评价基于DDD、γ-HCHs和p,p'-DDT的暴露浓度以及相应的毒性数据,概率密度函数重叠面积法和安全阈值法均表明了这3种有机氯农药中DDD的风险最大,其次是γ-HCHs,p,p'-DDT的生态风险最小;安全阈值法进一步表明DDD、γ-HCHs和p,p'-DDT超过影响10%水生生物的概率分别为10.2%、5.94%和0.01%.     

水专项"十三五"时期辽河流域水环境管理研究思路初探

以水专项在辽河流域实施的阶段性成果及辽河流域水环境管理现状为基础,分析"十三五"时期辽河流域水环境管理的需求,提出构建成套流域水环境管理技术体系和管理大平台、全面建设并优化水生态环境监测网络、实行水环境管理的动态调节机制和建立健全流域水环境管理长效机制的水环境管理研究思路,并指出研究应密切结合地方管理,充分发挥地方环境管理的责任主体地位,为水专项第三阶段"综合调控"战略目标的实现提供有力支撑.     

青藏高原淡水湖泊水化学组成特征及其演化

青藏高原淡水湖具有高生态价值和高脆弱性并存的特点.以海拔5 080 m±10 m的打加芒错湖水为研究对象,测试及分析了湖水化学组分,探讨了其主要离子来源、控制因子和湖泊水化学演化趋势.结果表明,湖水阳离子以Ca2+和Na+为主,阴离子以HCO3-为主,为HCO3-Ca型水;TDS为71.2～199.8 mg·L-1,矿化度低;受地表径流的稀释作用和富铝贫钙的地质背景约束湖区东南部水体的EC、Ca2+和HCO3-浓度均较低.湖水的Na+/(Na++Ca2+)为0.08～0.75,Cl-/(Cl-+HCO3-)为0.11～0.35,Ca/Na值为0.58,Mg/Ca值为0.12,HCO3/Na值为1.46,据Gibbs模型和元素化学计量分析表明,其化学组成主要受硅酸盐岩风化控制.湖区流域参与风化的矿物岩石包括斜长石(钙长石、钠长石)、钾长石、云母、石膏、盐岩等,但以斜长石风化为主,湖水的K/Na值平均为0.059,表明流域钾长石风化程度较低.湖水中方解石、白云石、石英、石膏等矿物饱和指数(SI)大于0,石盐的SI则小于0,揭示了青藏高原上淡水湖泊演变成咸水湖的变化趋势.     

北方冬季农村供暖对PM2.5的影响及解决方案研究

为研究北方冬季农村供暖对PM2.5的影响,我们在北方的部分乡镇农村进行了为期一年半的调查走访,结果表明,北方冬季农村供暖用煤总量大,利用效率低,其生活用煤产生的烟尘总量相当于工业用煤的2.7倍,加之村落人口密集,室内通风条件差,故现有的供暖形式对人体健康危害很大。针对供暖方式的研究,我们提出了在农村推行集中供暖的方案。