核电厂核事故应急疏散研究

根据我国法规、标准与美国核管委对核电厂核事故应急疏散的要求,考虑我国核电厂特殊的厂址条件与社会环境,分析核事故应急疏散的可行性。通过应急疏散行为研究、厂区的交通需求估计和路网分析,对不同情境,考虑核事故应急疏散的特殊问题,分别采用人工容量分析与宏观仿真模拟得到应急疏散时间。针对某核电厂,给出核事故应急疏散分析的一般步骤、方法与计算结果。对宏观仿真模型的主要参数进行灵敏度分析,找出影响应急疏散时间的主要因素,提出缩短应急疏散时间的针对性措施。     

Which compounds contribute most to elevated airborne exposure and corresponding health risks in the Western Balkans?

A majority of ongoing monitoring of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) is currently focused on chemicals emphasized in the Stockholm Convention. Quantitative detection of other substances (especially those with numerous anthropogenic sources such as polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)) is, however, also needed since their concentrations are usually several orders of magnitude higher. A goal of this study was to determine how various groups of compounds contribute to total human health risks at the variety of sampling sites in the region of Western Balkan. Distribution of the risks between the gas and particulate phases was also addressed. Results showed that inhalation exposure to organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) does not represent a significant risk to humans, while polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) re-volatilized to the atmosphere from contaminated soils and buildings can pose a problem. PCB evaporation from primary sources (currently used PCB-filled transformers or non-adequate storage facilities) generally resulted in much higher atmospheric concentrations than evaporation from the secondary sources (soils at the sites of war destructions). A majority of the human health risks at the urban sites were associated with PAHs. Between 83 and 94% of the cumulative risk at such sites was assigned to chemicals sorbed to particles, and out of it, PAHs were responsible for 99%.     

KALMAN FILTER CALCULATION OF SAMPLING FREQUENCY WHEN DETERMINING ANNUAL MEAN SOLUTE CONCENTRATIONS

ABSTRACT: A linear filter (Kalman filter) technique was used with a Streamflow-concentration model the minimize surface water quality sampling frequencies when determining annual mean solute concentrations with a predetermined allowable error. The Kalman filter technique used the stream discharge interval as a replacement for the more commonly used time interval. Using filter computations, the measurement error variance was minimized within the sample size constraints. The Kalman filter application proposed here is applicable only under several conditions including: monitoring is solely to estimate annual mean concentration; discharge measurement errors are negligible; the Streamflow-concentration model is valid; and monthly samples reflect the total variance of the solute in question.     

VARIABILITY IN MEASURED BEDLO AD-TRANSPORT RATES1

ABSTRACT: Variability in bedload-transport rates during constant water discharge is an inherent part of the bedload-transport process. Although this variability has been measured extensively in the laboratory, similar information generally is not available from field measurements. During a four-day period of nearly constant water discharge, four sets of consecutively collected bedload samples, ranging from 43 to 120 samples, were obtained at the same cross channel location using a standard 65-pound Helley-Smith bedload sampler. When the measured transport rates are converted to dimensionless rates and plotted as cumulative frequency distributions, they show good agreement with a theoretical probability distribution function of rates derived for the case of ripples on dunes. The distributions show that during constant water discharge individual measured rates at a fixed point vary from near zero to four times the mean rate, and 60 percent of the sampled rates will be less than the mean. Because of the large variation in transport rates that occurs at every location in the cross section, many observations are required to establish an accurate estimate of the mean rate at any given location.     

IDENTIFICATION OF AQUIFER DISPERSIVITIES: METHODS OF ANALYSIS AND PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a method for estimating aquifer dispersivities in solute transport models. Sensitivity equations are derived for the calculation of sensitivity coefficients. A modified Gauss-Newton algorithm is used to perform the least-squares minimization. A statistical procedure is outlined to assess reliability of the estimated parameters. The solute transport model is solved by the upstream weighted, multiple cell balance method which combines the concepts of local mass balance and finite element approximations. A one-dimensional solute transport problem in a vertical column system is first used to illustrate the inverse technique. A second example considers the parameter identification problem for three-dimensional solute transport with a unidirectional steady and uniform flow field. The third example solves the parameter identification problem in a three-dimensional, stream-aquifer, solute transport system with steady state flow. Numerical experiments are conducted to study data requirements for parameter identification.     

STATISTICAL METHODS AND SAMPLING DESIGN FOR ESTIMATING STEP TRENDS IN SURFACE-WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: This paper addresses two components of the problem of estimating the magnitude of step trends in surface water quality. The first is finding a robust estimator appropriate to the data characteristics expected in water-quality time series. The Hodges-Lehmann class of estimators is found to be robust in comparison to other nonparametric and moment-based estimators. A seasonal Hodges-Lehmann estimator is developed and shown to have desirable properties. Second, the effectiveness of various sampling strategies are examined using Monte Carlo simulation coupled with application of this estimator. The simulation is based on a large set of total phosphorus data from the Potomac River. To assure that the simulated records have realistic properties, the data are modeled in a multiplicative fashion incorporating flow, hysteresis, seasonal, and noise components. The results demonstrate the importance of balancing the length of the two sampling periods and balancing the number of data values between the two periods. The inefficiency of sampling at frequencies much in excess of 12 samples per year is demonstrated. Rotational sampling designs are discussed, and efficient designs, at least for this river and constituent, are shown to involve more than one year of active sampling at frequencies of about 12 per year.     

Evaluating the effects of spatial monitoring policy on groundwater quality portrayal

What size sample is sufficient for spatially sampling ambient groundwater quality? Water quality data are only as spatially accurate as the geographic sampling strategies used to collect them. This research used sequential sampling and regression analysis to evaluate groundwater quality spatial sampling policy changes proposed by California's Department of Water Resources. Iterative or sequential sampling of a hypothetical groundwater basin's water quality produced data sets from sample sizes ranging from 2.8% to 95% coverage of available point sample sites. Contour maps based on these sample data sets were compared to an original (control), mapped hypothetical data set, to determine at which point map information content and pattern portrayal are not improved by increasing sample sizes. Comparing series of contour maps of ground water quality concentration is a common means of evaluating the geographic extent of groundwater quality change. Comparisons included visual inspection of contout maps and statistical tests on digital versions of these map files, including correlation and regression products. This research demonstrated that, down to about 15% sample site coverage, there is no difference between contour maps produced from the different sampling strategies and the contout map of the original data set.     

A FIELD TECHNIQUE FOR WEIGHING BEDLOAD SAMPLES1

ABSTRACT: A technique for weighing bedload samples that was developed for laboratory use has been modified for field application. The technique involves determining the submerged weight of bedload samples as they are collected. The submerged weights are converted to dry weights from a knowledge of the specific gravity of the bedload material. The technique makes bedload transport data available immediately and eliminates costly and time-consuming steps involved with saving samples for laboratory analysis. Only samples designated for particle-size or other lab analyses need to be saved.     

Testing hypotheses about management to enhance habitat for feeding birds in a freshwater wetland

The level of water was manipulated in a freshwater wetland, with the aim of enhancing abundances of benthic animals and, ultimately, improving habitat for feeding birds (Japanese Snipe, Gallinago hardwickii). We tested whether these actions had the predicted and desired effects on benthic animals, by contrasting changes in two managed locations to one control location which was left unmanipulated. The number of taxa and abundances of chironomids decreased strongly and significantly in the manipulated locations, while the abundance of oligochaetes appeared to vary in a seasonal manner. Temporal variability of the structure and composition of assemblages was also increased in manipulated locations. Such effects have previously been suggested to indicate stress in benthic assemblages. Therefore, in contrast to what was predicted, managerial actions made benthic fauna less abundant and thus, less suitable as habitat for feeding birds. Several general lessons can be learned from these results. (1) Effects of managerial actions like these are difficult to predict a priori and can only be reliably evaluated with an experimental framework. (2) Because abundances of animals vary naturally, evaluations of managerial actions must include appropriate spatial replication. (3) Sampling at hierarchical temporal scales is important, because abundances of animals may vary in an unpredictable manner at short temporal scales and because changes in temporal variability may be a symptom of stress. (4) Combined use of uni- and multivariate techniques provides a comprehensive set of tools to assess the effects of restoration and creation of new habitats. Finally, these results emphasise the need for clear predictions about desired outcomes and specific experimental plans about how to test whether the desired results were achieved, before managerial actions are taken. Although this is often very difficult to achieve in real situations, it is necessary for practices of management to evolve on the basis of sound empirical experience.