Modeling human-induced climatic change: A summary for environmental managers

The rapid increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases has caused concern because of their potential to alter the earth's radiation budget and disrupt current climate patterns While there are many uncertainties associated with use of general circulation models (GCMs), GCMs are currently the best available technology to project changes in climate associated with elevated gas concentrations. Results indicate increases in global temperature and changes in global precipitation patterns are likely as a result of doubled CO₂. GCMs are not reliable for use at the regional scale because local scale processes and geography are not taken into account. Comparison of results from five GCMs in three regions of the United States indicate high variability across regions and among models depending on season and climate variable. Statistical methods of scaling model output and nesting finer resolution models in global models are two techniques that may improve projections. Despite the many limitations in GCMs, they are useful tools to explore climate-earth system dynamics when used in conjunction with water resource and ecosystem models. A variety of water resource models showed significant alteration of regional hydrology when run with both GCM-generated and hypothetical climate scenarios, regardless of region or model complexity. Similarly, ecological models demonstrate the sensitivity of ecosystem production, nutrient dynamics, and distribution to changes in climate and CO₂ levels. We recommend the use of GCM-based scenarios in conjunction with water resource and ecosystem models to guide environmental management and policy in a “no-regrets” framework or as part of a precautionary approach to natural resource protection.     

Protection policy for Hawaii's native wildlife during geothermal energy development

Hawaii possesses abundant geothermal resources and rare native wildlife. Geothermal energy development has not posed a threat to native wildlife in the past, but development potential has recently reached a level at which concern for native wildlife is warranted.Potential geothermal resource areas in Hawaii intersect important native forest and endangered species habitat. The ability of existing laws to constrain development in these areas is in question. State and federal endangered species and environmental reporting laws have little ability to constrain geothermal development on private land. Hawaii's Land Use Law had been viewed by conservationists as protecting natural areas important to native wildlife, but recent decisions of the state Land Board sharply challenge this view.While this dispute was being resolved in the courts, the state legislature passed the Geothermal Subzone Act of 1983. Wildlife value was assessed in the geothermal subzone designation process mandated by this act, but the subzones designated primarily reflected inappropriate developer influence. All areas in which there was developer interest received subzone designation, and no area in which there was no developer interest was subzoned. This overriding emphasis on developer interest violated the intent of the sub-zone act, and trivialized the importance of other assessment criteria, among them native wildlife values.     

APPLICATION OF A LOW-FLOW ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR THE MONONGAHELA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The application of a low-flow assessment model is illustrated for the Monogahela River Basin. The model simulates the impact of reservoir operating rules and consumptive use limitation policies on low-flow frequency at downstream locations in the basin. Policies are evaluated using an observed flow sequence and synthetic flow inputs. The paper reviews the historical development of flow management on the Monogahela to provide background for the current study.     

THE CHUBB/BAUMAN METHOD FOR ESTIMATING THE RECREATION POTENTIAL OF RIVERS: A CRITICAL REVIEW1

ABSTRACT: The Chubb/Bauman (Ch/B) method for making quantitative estimates of recreation potential for rivers is based on the 1968/ 69 Leopold method for quantitative assessment of the scenic beauty of rivers. Both use classifications of environmental variables as the database. Unlike the Leopold method, the classifications used in the Ch/B method consistently reflect human preferences. The Ch/B method collects information on 67 variables, and uses a computer program to produce estimates of potential for 16 common recreation activities. This critique evaluates selected concepts and procedures of the Ch/B method partly by comparison with other available methods of recreation resource inventory. It considers the validity and utility of numerical weighting of variables, the use of numbers derived from place in a classification, and the transformation process. The quantitative techniques of the method exhibit serious flaws. Much of the data produced by the method appears to be quantitative but in fact is not, and it does not produce truly quantitative estimates of recreation potential. Classifications of generalized geographic or environmental variables are shown to have serious defects as a basis for evaluation of recreational potential.     

Japan's develop-for-import policy

Much of the world's remaining mineral resources lie within the underdeveloped nations of the Third World. The current crisis of confidence characterized in international investment and trade in extractive resources has become detrimental to both the resource-rich developing countries and the resource-hungry industrialized countries. Japan is one nation that has developed a strategy to foster mutual trust and to restore confidence in the international extractive industries. This paper examines Japan's develop-for-import policy, ‘kaihatsu yunso’, and its design, implementation and effects on securing foreign resources supplies.     

PAST AND FUTURE OF ANALYSIS OF WATER RESOURCES TIME SERIES1

ABSTRACT: water resources supply and demand time series consist of several or all of the four basic characteristics: tendency, intermittency, periodicity and stochasticity. Their importance changes from one type of variables to another. Historic developments of analysis of time series in hydrology have varied significantly over the past, from the stress on search for periodicities and persistence in annual series to the emphasis on the series stochastic properties. Supply and demand series are often highly interrelated, which fact is most often neglected in planning water resources systems in general, and water storage capacities in particular. The future of series analysis in water resources will likely be by a joint use of physically-based structural analysis and the use of advanced methods of treating data by stochastic processes, statistical estimation and inference techniques. The most intriguing challenge of the future of this analysis may be the treatment of nonnormal, nonlinear and in general nonstationary hydrologic and water use time series. The proper treatment of complex multivariate processes will also challenge the specialists, especially for the purposes of transfer of information between data on variables at given points, or between data at several points of a given variable, or both.     

Use of a geographic information system for storm runoff prediction from small urban watersheds

The use of computer-assisted map analysis techniques for prediction of storm runoff from a small urban watershed in the United States is investigated. An automated procedure for calculating input parameters for the US Soil Conservation Service (SCS) method of predicting storm runoff volume and peak timing is presented. Advanced techniques of spatial analysis are used to characterize spatial coincidence, surface configuration and effective hydrologic distance. A limited verification of the automated procedure indicates that the model reasonably characterizes water flow. A sensitivity analysis of basin disaggregation suggests that the SCS method yields increased volume and peak discharge predictions as the watershed is divided into smaller and smaller subunits. As a means to demonstrate the practical application of the automated procedure, a simulation of the effects on surface runoff for a potential residential development is presented.     

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: This research investigates the benefits of forecasting in water supply systems. Questions relating operational losses to forecast period and accuracy are addressed. Some simple available forecasting techniques are assessed for their accuracy and applicability. These issues are addressed through the use of a simulation model of the Cedar and South Fork Tolt Rivers, where the system is modeled as a single purpose reservoir supplying municipal and industrial water to the Seattle metropolitan area. The following conclusions were made for this system: (1) reservoir operation deteriorates markedly with the loss of forecast accuracy; (2) the optimal length of forecasting period is five months; (3) reservoir operation may be improved by as much as 88 percent if perfect predictive abilities are available; (4) the mean of the historic data is not recommended to predict future flows because Markov methods are always superior; and (5) lag-one autoregressive Markov schemes exhibit about a 9 percent improvement in operation over no forecasting.     

Taxing mineral resource projects : Papua New Guinea, Indonesia and the Philippines

Within the context of a case study of three Asia/Pacific countries' mineral taxation regimes, this article examines the impact of individual fiscal instrucments, and the total fiscal package, on investor risk perceptions, investor returns and government receipts. It shows that under conditions of uncertainty and risk aversion on the part of investors, significant gains in expected government revenues can be achieved without seriously affecting the investors' ex-ante assessments of projects by a judicious selection and mix of fiscal instruments.     

Measuring the wealth of nations

The sustainability of development is closely linked to changes intotal per capita wealth. This paper presents estimates of the wealth of nations for nearly 100 countries, broken down into produced assets, natural resources and human resources. While thelatter is the dominant form of wealth in virtually all countries,in low income natural resource exporters the share of natural resources in total wealth is equal to the share of produced assets. For low income countries in general, cropland forms thevast majority of natural wealth. The analysis suggests the process of development can be viewed as one of portfolio management: sustainable development entails saving the rents fromexhaustible resources, managing renewable resources sustainably,and investing savings in both produced assets and human resources.