Alignment between values of dryland pastoralists and conservation needs for small mammals

Policies for conservation outside protected areas, such as those designed to address the decline in Australian mammals, will not result in net improvements unless they address barriers to proenvironmental behavior. We used a mixed‐methods approach to explore potential value‐action gaps (disconnects between values and subsequent action) for small mammal conservation behaviors among pastoralists in dryland Australia. Using semistructured surveys and open‐ended interviews (n = 43), we explored values toward small mammals; uptake of a range of current and intended actions that may provide benefit to small mammals; and potential perceived barriers to their uptake. Pastoralists assigned great conservation value to small mammals; over 80% (n = 36) agreed to strongly agreed that small mammals on their property were important. These values did not translate into stated willingness to engage in voluntary cessation of wild‐dog control (r² = 0.187, p = 0.142, n = 43). However, assigning great conservation value to small mammals was strongly related to stated voluntary willingness to engage in the proenvironmental behavior most likely to result in benefits to small mammals: cat and fox control (r² = 0.558, p = 0.000, n = 43). There was no significant difference between stated voluntarily and incentivized willingness to engage in cat and fox control (p = 0.862, n = 43). The high levels of willingness to engage in voluntary cat and fox control highlight a potential entry point for addressing Australia's mammal declines because the engagement of pastoralists in conservation programs targeting cat and fox control is unlikely to be prevented by attitudinal constraints. Qualitative data suggest there is likely a subpopulation of pastoralists who value small mammals but do not wish to engage in formal conservation programs due to relational barriers with potential implementers. A long‐term commitment to engagement with pastoralists by implementers will thus be necessary for conservation success. On‐property cat and fox control programs that build and leverage trust, shared goals, collaboration, and shared learning experiences between stakeholders and that explicitly recognize the complexity of small mammal dynamics and the property‐level ecological knowledge of pastoralists are more likely to gain traction.     

Climate Change and Climate Variability: Adaptations to Reduce Adverse Health Impacts

Global climate change is likely to have a range of consequences for human health as a result of disturbance or weakening of the biosphere's natural or human-managed life support systems. The full range of potential human health impacts of global climate change is diverse and would be distributed differentially spatially and over time. Changes in the mortality toll of heatwaves and changes in the distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases may occur early. The public health consequences of sea level rise and of regional changes in agricultural productivity may not occur (or become apparent) for several decades. Vulnerability is a measure of both sensitivity to climate change and the ability to adapt in anticipation of, or in response to, its impacts. The basic modes of adaptation to climate-induced health hazards are biological, behavioural and social. Adaptation can be undertaken at the individual, community and whole-population levels. Adaptive strategies should not introduce new health hazards. Enhancement of the acknowledged public health infrastructure and intervention programmes is essential to reduce vulnerability to the health impacts of climate change. In the longer-term, fundamental improvements in the social and material conditions of life and in the reduction of inequalities within and between populations are required for sustained reduction in vulnerability to environmental health hazards.     

Building a Regionally Connected Reserve Network in a Changing and Uncertain World

Abstract: Habitat connectivity is required at large spatial scales to facilitate movement of biota in response to climatic changes and to maintain viable populations of wide‐ranging species. Nevertheless, it may require decades to acquire habitat linkages at such scales, and areas that could provide linkages are often developed before they can be reserved. Reserve scheduling methods usually consider only current threats, but threats change over time as development spreads and reaches presently secure areas. We investigated the importance of considering future threats when implementing projects to maintain habitat connectivity at a regional scale. To do so, we compared forward‐looking scheduling strategies with strategies that consider only current threats. The strategies were applied to a Costa Rican case study, where many reserves face imminent isolation and other reserves will probably become isolated in the more distant future. We evaluated strategies in terms of two landscape‐scale connectivity metrics, a pure connectivity metric and a metric of connected habitat diversity. Those strategies that considered only current threats were unreliable because they often failed to complete planned habitat linkage projects. The most reliable and effective strategies considered the future spread of development and its impact on the likelihood of completing planned habitat linkage projects. Our analyses highlight the critical need to consider future threats when building connected reserve networks over time.     

经济增长速度对抗震设防标准的需求

如果说西方发达国家的抗震设防标准是和其经济增长速度相适应的,那么中国也应如此。 本文建议了两种方法,用以估计适合我国国情的抗震设防标准:①理论归纳,②类比推理。前者虽然在逻辑上比较严密,但由于涉及到各界专家和管理阶层的协作,非笔者力所能及。 本文以第二种方法展开讨论。其要义是:设想西方发达国家的经济增长速度不是1％～4％,而是中国的8％～12％,这些国家的专家会如何修改他们的抗震设防标准?按此思路,我国的抗震设防标准应向下调整。以一般工业与民用建筑为例,可用P_(20)(a)=10％,取代现行国际惯例的P_(50)(a)=10％。 这样做的后果大体是:设防地震烈度在学术误差范围内降低半度,而抗震投资则以指数方式下降。     

ENSO与云南蒋家沟泥石流灾害发生的关系

通过分析近40年来出现的ENSO事件对云南东川蒋家沟泥石流活动的影响可知,El Ni(~n)o与LaNi(~n)a对其的影响正好相反,且El Ni(~n)o的影响大于La Ni(~n)a的影响.El Ni(~n)o年,泥石流年发生频次、径流量和输沙量偏少的概率均较大,泥石流活动减弱的倾向明显;La Ni(~n)a年,虽有一定的对应关系,但不如El Ni(~n)o年明显,且影响更复杂一些,总的来说,泥石流年发生频次、径流量和输沙量偏多或持平的概率较大.     

Evaluation of zoobenthic assemblages and recovery following petroleum spill in a coastal area of Río de la Plata estuarine system, South America

The objective of this work was to analyse zoobenthic assemblages in the coastal sector of the Río de La Plata, Argentina, after a petroleum spill. Sampling stations were located in representative sites of various landscapes. Structure, composition, physico-chemical parameters and seasonal changes were recorded in order to assess taxocenosis evolution during the period 1999–2003. Recovery signs were estimated by means of biotic indices and the presence of sensitive species. Tolerant species were dominant in heavily polluted sites, with low diversity and water quality values, according to the biotic indices used. In certain zones, sediment quality remains impoverished, with a visible oil film on the surface. However, during the last sampling, some points showed an increase in biotic indices, pointing to a slight improvement in environmental conditions.     

Climate change and changes in global precipitation patterns: what do we know?

The objective of this paper is to synthesize the large literature recording changing patterns of precipitation in the observed data, thus indicating that climate change is already a reality. Such a synthesis is required not only for environmental researchers but also for policy makers. The key question is the broad picture at major regional and continental levels. Some interesting conclusions for this survey are emerging. For example, the review shows increased variance of precipitation everywhere. Consistent with this finding, we observe that wet areas become wetter, and dry and arid areas become more so. In addition, the following general changing pattern is emerging: (a) increased precipitation in high latitudes (Northern Hemisphere); (b) reductions in precipitation in China, Australia and the Small Island States in the Pacific; and (c) increased variance in equatorial regions. The changes in the major ocean currents also appear to be affecting precipitation patterns. For example, increased intensity and frequency of El Ni?o and ENSO seem associated with evidence of an observed "dipole" pattern affecting Africa and Asia, although this time series is too short so far. But the changing pattern calls for renewed efforts at adaptation to climate change, as the changing precipitation pattern will also affect the regional availability of food supply.     

The impact on tropospheric ozone formation on the implementation of a program for mobile emissions control: a case study in São Paulo,Brazil

The main sources of reactive hydrocarbons (RHC) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x), ozone precursors, in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) in the southeast of Brazil are emissions from vehicles fleets. Ambient surface ozone and particulate matter concentrations are air quality problem in the MASP. This study examined the impact that implementing a control program for mobile emissions has on ozone concentrations, An episode of high surface ozone concentrations occurring in the MASP during the March 13–15, 2000 period was used as a case study that was modeled for photochemical oxidants using the California Institute of Technology/Carnegie Mellon University three-dimensional photochemical model. Different scenarios were analyzed in relationship to the implementation of the Programa Nacional de Controle de Poluição por Veículos Automotores (PROCONVE, National Program to Control Motor Vehicle Pollution). Scenario 1 assumed that all vehicles were operating within PROCONVE guidelines. Scenarios 2 and 3 considered hypothetical situations in which the PROCONVE was not implemented. Scenario 2 set the premise that vehicles were using pre-1989 technology, whereas scenario 3 allowed for technological advances. A base case scenario, in which the official emission inventory for the year 2000 was employed, was also analyzed. The CIT model results show agreement with most measurements collected during 13–15 March 2000 modeling episode. Mean normalized bias for ozone, CO, RHC and NO _x are approximately 9.0, 6.0, ?8.3, 13.0%, respectively. Tropospheric ozone concentrations predicted for scenario 2 were higher than those predicted for scenarios 1, 3 and base case. This study makes a significant contribution to the evaluation of air quality improvement and provides data for use in evaluating the economic costs of implementing a program of motor vehicle pollution control aimed at protecting human health.     

不同pH值下对发光菌的毒性及QSAR研究

测定了11种苯酚类化合物在不同pH下对发光菌的急性毒性(15minEC50。)。应用两种理化参数logP和pKa对毒性数据进行了定量构效关系(QSARs)研究,并在此基础上初步探讨了苯酚类化合物的毒性机制。结果表明,苯酚类化合物对发光菌的毒性随pH的升高而减小,这与不同pH下苯酚类化合物的电离程度有关。相同pH下,苯酚类化合物的毒性随取代基团的种类、个数及取代位置而不同。苯酚类化合物属于极性麻醉(麻醉Ⅱ型)化合物,毒性可用logP和pKa来联合描述。     

Accounting for enforcement costs in the spatial allocation of marine zones

Marine fish stocks are in many cases extracted above sustainable levels, but they may be protected through restricted‐use zoning systems. The effectiveness of these systems typically depends on support from coastal fishing communities. High management costs including those of enforcement may, however, deter fishers from supporting marine management. We incorporated enforcement costs into a spatial optimization model that identified how conservation targets can be met while maximizing fishers’ revenue. Our model identified the optimal allocation of the study area among different zones: no‐take, territorial user rights for fisheries (TURFs), or open access. The analysis demonstrated that enforcing no‐take and TURF zones incurs a cost, but results in higher species abundance by preventing poaching and overfishing. We analyzed how different enforcement scenarios affected fishers’ revenue. Fisher revenue was approximately 50% higher when territorial user rights were enforced than when they were not. The model preferentially allocated area to the enforced‐TURF zone over other zones, demonstrating that the financial benefits of enforcement (derived from higher species abundance) exceeded the costs. These findings were robust to increases in enforcement costs but sensitive to changes in species’ market price. We also found that revenue under the existing zoning regime in the study area was 13–30% lower than under an optimal solution. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for both the benefits and costs of enforcement in marine conservation, particularly when incurred by fishers. Justificación de los Costos de Aplicación en la Asignación Espacial de Zonas Marinas