农地城市流转中农民集体福利均衡分析

农地城市流转中不同利益集团的福利状况韭已成为学者和政策制定者关注的焦点.农民集体作为影响最为深刻的利益集团之一,其福利在农地城市流转中能否实现以及如何实现均衡成为本文研究的核心内容.本文首先介绍了农民集体福利的概念及其测度方法,然后论述福利均衡的概念,提出农民集体福利均衡分析的三个假设,在此基础上,对农地城市流转中的农民集体福利进行分析,提出实现农民集体福利均衡的条件,结果表明农地城市流转中农民集体福利均衡的必要条件为农民集体获得的经济补偿大于或等于其福利损失.然后通过比较分析发现当前土地征收中农民集体获得的福利补偿不能弥补其福利损失,农地城市流转前后农民集体福利呈现不均衡状态.最后提出农地城市流转中要尊重农民集体的土地产权,进一步提高农地征收的补偿标准,使农民集体获得的货币补偿能够弥补其由于土地财产损失造成的福利损失,以实现农民集体福利的均衡;政府应当通过改善农村交通、通讯、电力、饮水、居住等条件,完善农村社会保障体系等措施提高农民集体的福利水平,以弥补农民集体土地发展权受限造成的二次福利损失.     

Sorption of chlorpyrifos and fonofos on four soils and turfgrass thatch using membrane filters

Abstract

Chemical transport in soil is a major factor influencing soil and water contamination. Four soils and turfgrass thatch, representing a wide range of organic carbon OC content were studied to determine sorption K_d and K_f parameters for the insecticides chlorpyrifos and fonofos. The batch equilibrium method was used. The concentration of insecticide was measured in the solution as well as in the solid phase to determine the most accurate sorption data. Four soils and thatch were equilibrated for 24 h at 22 ± 1^OC with aqueous insecticide solutions. Four concentrations of the insecticides, each <50% of their respective water solubilities, were selected for the experiments. After extraction with an organic solvent, the concentration of insecticides in the aqueous solution was determined by gas liquid chromatography using electron capture detection for chlorpyrifos, and nitrogen/phosphorus detection for fonofos. Data obtained were fitted to the log and simple linear form of the Freundlich equation. Mass balance Freundlich isotherm exponents n ranged between 0.82 and 0.93 for chlorpyrifos. 0.82 and 1.21 for fonofos, with r² ≥ 0.97. K_oc (percent of organic carbon %OC normalized Sorption coefficient) values were calculated by using experimentally developed K_d and K_f coefficients in relation to OC levels from 0.29 to 34.85%. K_d and K_f coefficients of both insecticides were positively correlated with OC (r² ≥ 0.96). organic matter OM (r² ≥ 0.96), and cation exchange capacity CEC (r² ≥ 0.90).     

特大黄土滑坡事故责任认定中的岩土力学问题

在滑坡影响因素研究的基础上，采用极限平衡和数值模拟的方法分析了西部某矿山特大黄土滑坡灾害的发生机理，认为此次滑坡是在断层和地下开采等不利条件下，由大气集中降水诱发黄土湿陷形成的推移式滑坡，与管线漏水形成的“过湿带”不构成直接因果关系，为事故责任认定，解决矛盾纠纷提供了理论依据。     

Modeling the Effects of Potential Salinity Shifts on the Recovery of Striped Bass in the Savannah River Estuary,Georgia–South Carolina,United States

Increased salinity in spawning and nursery grounds in the Savannah River estuary was cited as the primary cause of a 97% decrease in adult striped bass (Morone saxatilis) and a concomitant 96% decrease in striped bass egg production. Restoration efforts focused on environmental remediation and stock enhancement have resulted in restored salinity patterns and increased egg and adult abundances. However, future water needs or harbor development may preclude further recovery by reducing freshwater inflow or increasing salinity intrusion. To assess the effect of potential changes in the salinity regime, we developed models relating discharge, tidal phase, and salinity to striped bass egg and early larval survival and re-cast these in a quantitative Bayesian belief network. The model indicated that a small upstream shift (≤1.67 km) in the salinity regime would have the least impact on striped bass early life history survival, whereas shifts >1.67 km would have progressively larger impacts, with a 8.33-km shift potentially reducing our estimated survival probability by >28%. Such an impact could have cumulative and long-term detrimental effects on the recovery of the Savannah River striped bass population. The available salinity data were collected during average and low flows, so our model represents some typical and some extreme conditions during a striped bass spawning season. Our model is a relatively simplistic, “first-order” attempt at evaluating potential effects of changes in the Savannah River estuarine salinity regime and points to areas of concern and potential future research.     

建筑物消防系统可靠性分析

为评估建筑物消防系统的可靠性,首先将系统分为探测报警系统和灭火系统等部分,再用事件树法分析事故发生时消防系统不同部分的反应情况.通过贝叶斯理论及历史统计数据得到系统失效率的不确定性概率分布,建立消防系统可靠性随时间变化的数学模型; 用蒙特卡罗方法模拟求得系统可靠性的时间函数并对模型的不确定性参数进行敏感性分析.该方法将统计数据与经验公式、理论方法相结合,并利用蒙特卡罗方法处理模型中的不确定性,不仅能够有效估计消防系统的可靠性,还可对其他类似系统的可靠性进行分析,并通过敏感性分析为进一步减少估计的不确定性提出合理建议.     

卷烟膨胀烟丝生产线冷端CO_2泵装置的优化改进

为解决干冰膨胀烟丝生产线冷端液体工艺泵因机械密封长期超压和气缚现象造成损坏发生CO2泄漏而导致紧急停机抢修的问题,对干冰膨胀线冷端工艺罐系统进行了优化改进。在工艺泵吸口前管路引一根气相平衡管至工艺罐顶部,当泵吸口前管路有CO2液体时,输送管路内气化的CO2气体通过气相平衡管线释放回工艺罐内,不会进入工艺泵体内。应用结果表明,工艺泵内的憋压和气缚现象消失了,机械密封受到保护。改造前机械密封平均一个季度更换一次,改造后机械密封使用5年未损毁,达到保护干冰膨胀线冷端工艺泵机械密封的目的。     

基于贝叶斯网络的航空维修人因可靠性分析

根据维修人为因素分析和分类扩展系统的框架选取影响因素,在航空维修领域应用贝叶斯网络进行人因可靠性分析,建立飞机维修效能模型,直观地表示影响因素与维修效能之间的关系。同时以目视检测为例,结合专家意见确定随机影响因素,通过专家访谈、事故报告、调查问卷、操作记录等渠道获取数据,得出条件概率表,进而建立目视检测表现模型,展示贝叶斯网络的建模流程。案例研究结果表明,组织文化、视觉信息、设备、疲劳、检测距离等因素对目视检测表现的影响非常显著,欲改善目视检测表现,必须对多影响因素进行综合管理。     

玉米叶吸附剂对水溶液中Pb2+的吸附性能研究

研究了玉米叶对水溶液中Pb2+的吸附性能,借助正交和单因素试验探讨各因素对吸附率的影响,利用红外光谱研究吸附机理,并采用Langmuir、Freundlich和Temkin模型对吸附数据进行拟合.结果表明:金属初始质量浓度和体系pH值是影响吸附的重要因素;玉米叶吸附铅离子的最佳pH值为5.0,金属质量浓度和吸附剂投加量最佳比值为80 mg/L:0.170 g,在25℃时玉米叶对铅离子的吸附较快,180min后达到吸附平衡;吸附数据更加符合Freundlich和Temkin等温吸附模型,由Langmuir等温吸附模型可知玉米叶最大吸附量为103.266mg/g,吉布斯自由能△Ge为负值,该过程吸热且自发进行.红外光谱分析表明,参与作用的官能团为羟基、羧基、酰胺或脂肪族C-x(x代表Cl、Br、I).     

航天器总装事故原因事件重要度分析

为解决传统安全性定量分析方法不能描述航天器总装这一复杂人-机-环系统的失效数据波动性和非严格逻辑关系的问题,结合生产实际,采用问卷调查的方法找出影响总装事故的风险因素,即导致事故的事件发生可能性、输入事件对输出事件的影响程度等。在验证调查数据的有效性之后,应用基于模糊数的模糊因果图(FCD),计算某航天器与支架车连接作业的事故风险可能性。提出原因事件重要度的计算方法。通过计算发现,人员注意力和发动机保护罩作用是导致发动机损伤的关键事件。与模糊事故树(FFT)、贝叶斯网络(BN)重要度计算结果对比表明,模糊重要度计算结果能反映事故发生可能性对原因事件发生可能性值的增减的敏感度。     

Energy and economic impacts of an international multi-regional carbon market

The establishment of a global multi-regional carbon market is considered to be a cost effective approach to facilitate global emission abatement and has been widely concerned.The ongoing planned linkage between the European Union’s carbon market and a new emission trading system in Australia in 2015 would be an important attempt to the practice of building up an international carbon market across different regions.To understand the abatement effect of such a global carbon market and to study its energy and economic impact on different market participants,this article adopts a global dynamic computable general equilibrium model with a detailed representation of the interactions between energy and economic systems.Our model includes 20 economic sectors and 19 regions,and describes in detail 17 energy technologies.Bundled with fossil fuel consumptions,the emission permits are considered to be essential inputs in each of the production and consumption activities in the economic system to simulate global carbon market policies.Carbon emission permits are endogenously set in the model,and can be traded between sectors and regions.Considering the current development of the global carbon market,this study takes 2020 as the study period.Four scenarios(reference scenario,independent carbon market scenario,Europe Union（EUh-Australia scenario,and China-EU-Australia scenario） are designed to evaluate the impact of the global carbon market involving China,the EU,and Australia.We find that the carbon price in the three countries varies a lot,from $32/tCO₂ in Australia,to $17.5/tCO₂ in the EU,and to $10/tCO₂ in China.Though the relative emission reduction（3%） in China is lower than that in the EU（9%） and Australia（18%）,the absolute emission reduction in China is far greater than that in the EU and Australia.When China is included in the carbon market,which already includes the EU and Australia,the prevailing global carbon price falls from $22 per ton carbon dioxide（CO₂） to $12/tCO₂,due to the relatively lower abatement cost in China.Seventy-one percent of the EU’s and eighty-one percent of Australia’s domestic reduction burden would be transferred to China,increasing 0.03%of the EU’s and 0.06%of Australia’s welfare.The emission constraint improves the energy efficiency of China’s industry sector by 1.4%,reduces coal consumption by3.3%,and increases clean energy by 3.5%.