Variance and Uncertainty in the Expected Number of Occurrences in Reserve Selection

Abstract:  Reserve selection often concerns the design of reserve networks for the long-term maintenance of biodiversity. We considered uncertainty in the context of three common reserve-selection formulations, the expected number of populations, proportional coverage of land-cover types, and the probability of having at least one population. By uncertainty, we mean variance in the outcome of any probability-based reserve selection formulation. A typical reserve-selection formulation might ask for the least expensive set of sites that contains n populations per species. It is implicit here that this requirement concerns the expected number of populations, which actually is obtained only with a 50% chance. If the requirement is changed to select the least expensive set of sites that gives n populations per species with a 95% probability, the number of sites required in the solution increases and the identity of the sites is changed toward sites that have high probabilities of persistence (or occurrence) and low associated binomial variance. Anthropogenic threat is one factor that may cause probabilistic uncertainty in the context of proportional area coverage.     

稻-麦轮作模式下不同钝化材料对镉污染农田土壤的原位钝化效应

为明确大田条件下施用钝化材料对镉(Cd)污染农田土壤的原位钝化效应及其持续性,以秸秆生物炭、 YH粉、粉煤灰、海泡石和页岩粉(粒径均<0.2 mm,施用量均为2.25kg·m^-2)这5种钝化材料为研究对象,连续监测3 a稻-麦轮作模式下原位钝化处理对土壤养分、土壤酸碱度、土壤Cd污染状况和种植作物籽粒Cd含量的影响,探讨其钝化效应及持续性,为有效控制农田土壤Cd污染、保证作物安全生产提供理论依据和数据支撑.结果表明：(1)稻-麦轮作模式下,施用5种钝化材料对土壤养分含量影响较小,但均可提高土壤pH,促使土壤Cd由酸提取态向残渣态转化,降低土壤Cd有效性,其中秸秆生物炭与YH粉处理下当季土壤有效Cd含量的降幅最大(20.42%～22.53%),是其它钝化处理的1.07～1.84倍.(2)稻-麦轮作模式下,首年施用5种钝化材料后均显著降低了水稻和小麦籽粒Cd含量,降幅分别达19.88%～48.77%和5.06%～24.00%.施用秸秆生物炭、粉煤灰和YH粉后作物籽粒Cd含量显著低于对照和其它钝化材料,该处理条件下的水稻籽粒ω(Cd)(0.195、0.197和0....     

The EU-project ERAPharm. Incentives for the further development of guidance documents?

- Triggered by the detection of a large variety of pharmaceuticals in surface waters, soils and groundwaters across the world (e.g. Halling- Sørensen et al. 1998, Daughton & Ternes 1999, Jones et al. 2001, Heberer 2002) and the widespread occurrence of endocrine active compounds and related effects in the environment (e.g. Purdom et al. 1994, Tyler et al. 1998, Vethaak et al. 2002), pharmaceuticals in the environment have become an issue for both the scientific and the public community. During the last few years, our understanding of the fate and effects of pharmaceuticals in the environment has progressed significantly. However, there are still a number of uncertainties concerning the effects of pharmaceuticals on the environment and the assessment of potential exposure (e.g. Hanisch et al. 2004, Salomon 2005). These uncertainties will be addressed by the EU-project ‘Environmental risk assessment of pharmaceuticals’ (ERAPharm). This project, a specific targeted research project, is carried out within the priority ‘Global change and ecosystems’ of the 6th framework programme of the European Union. ERAPharm has started on 1st October 2004; the project duration is three years.     

A frontier model for landscape ecology: the tapir in Honduras

We borrow a frontier specification from the econometrics literature to make inferences about the tolerance of the tapir to human settlements. We estimate the width of an invisible band surrounding human settlements which would act as a frontier or exclusion zone to the tapir to be around 290 metres.     

Planning for Climate Change: Identifying Minimum-Dispersal Corridors for the Cape Proteaceae

Abstract:  Climate change poses a challenge to the conventional approach to biodiversity conservation, which relies on fixed protected areas, because the changing climate is expected to shift the distribution of suitable areas for many species. Some species will persist only if they can colonize new areas, although in some cases their dispersal abilities may be very limited. To address this problem we devised a quantitative method for identifying multiple corridors of connectivity through shifting habitat suitabilities that seeks to minimize dispersal demands first and then the area of land required. We applied the method to Proteaceae mapped on a 1-minute grid for the western part of the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa, to supplement the existing protected areas, using Worldmap software. Our goal was to represent each species in at least 35 grid cells (approximately 100 km²) at all times between 2000 and 2050 despite climate change. Although it was possible to achieve the goal at reasonable cost, caution will be needed in applying our method to reserves or other conservation investments until there is further information to support or refine the climate-change models and the species' habitat-suitability and dispersal models.     

THE PROBABILITY OF CONSECUTIVE RAINLESS DAYS1

ABSTRACT: A major objective of this work was to develop a method applicable to the Intermountain region for estimating the probability of n consecutive dry days, where n ≤ 30 days. One result was a computationally simple method of producing the desired estimates directly from the rainfall record. For a consecutive dry-day period of n days, these estimates are equivalent to those obtained from a Markov model of order n-1. The efficacy of a simple Markov model was also evaluated. In this climatic region, the simple Markov model produces probability estimates of consecutive dry days that are too conservative, especially at long dry-day periods. In this data set, it was found that the longer the dry-day sequence, the more conservative the Markov estimate. The source of these conservative estimates is the strong dry-day persistence, which is characteristic of summer weather in the Intermountain region. In this region, the best estimates of the probability of consecutive dry days are probably those obtained directly from a representative rainfall record and smoothed by the partial sums of a fourier Series.     

农药在生态环境中的持久性及残留的研究方法

本文报导农药在生态环境中的持久性及残的研究方法，它包括农药在作物、土壤和水等环境介质中的持外性，以及农药在这些介质中中的残留量与农药的施用量和施药次数的关系等方面的内容，本文还介绍了农药在作物中最高残留限量与安全间隔期的计算方法。     

贫困的“物以类聚”：中国的农村空间贫困陷阱及其识别

理解贫困陷阱及其成因是理解减贫机制,进而理解贫困治理的基础。早期的实证研究注重从收入的角度研究农村贫困,较新的研究开始关注“空间外部性”对农村贫困的影响。然而,要正确识别农村的“贫困陷阱”,就需要对上述两个维度同时进行解释。鉴于此,运用中国县级层面的面板数据,从聚集与持久两个维度对中国的农村贫困陷阱进行了识别。研究结果表明：2006—2016年,中国农村的贫困空间格局几乎没有变化,并且贫困的空间分布与经济增长也并非是同步的,贫困县的分布主要与地形（坡度、海拔）因素有关;进一步研究还发现,中国的农村贫困具有持久性,贫困县收入存在低水平的均衡,贫困县与非贫困县之间存在收入的“俱乐部收敛”。本文揭示了空间外部性与农村贫困之间的关系,为正确评估经济发展与扶贫开发,合理制定区域反贫困瞄准机制提供了支持。     

Persistence and growth of faecal culturable bacterial indicators in water column and sediments of Vidy Bay, Lake Geneva, Switzerland

The aims of this study was to investigate the persistence and the growth of culturable bacterial indicators (CBI) including total coliforms (TC) and faecal coliforms represented by Escherichia coli, enterococcus (ENT), and aerobic mesophilic bacteria (AMB) in the surface sediments and the water column of Vidy Bay (Lake Geneva, City of Lausanne, Switzerland). The study was carried out for 60 d using microcosms containing Sewage Treatment Plant (STP) e uent and nonsterile water without CBI, as well as contaminated and non-contaminated sediments. The e ects of water temperature and of organic matter associated with sediments on the survival of CBI in the sediments and the water column were observed. The number of CBI colonies in the contaminated sediments of Vidy Bay and in the STP e uent was almost identical in the order of 105–107, 104–106, 103–105, and 104–107 CFU/100 g sediment or /100 mL water for TC, E. coli, ENT, and AMB respectively. A degradation of CBI was observed in the sediments where organic mater content was low and in the water column at a temperature of 10°C after 5 d of experimentation. In addition, a growth of CBI was observed in the sediment which is rich in organic matter at 20°C. The results of this study indicate: (1) the higher concentrations of the CBI observed in di erent points in the water column of Vidy Bay may not be explained only by the recent contribution of the three potential sources of the Bay contamination including STP and the Chamberonne and Flon Rivers, but also by the persistence, removal from sediment and multiplication of CBI in the sediment and water column; (2) the sediment of Vidy Bay constitute a reservoir of CBI and can even support their growth; and (3) the CBI not only survive in sediments, but also can be remobilized and increased in the water column, therefore, it become a permanent microbiological pollution in Vidy Bay.     

广州地区PBDEs长距离迁移潜力和总持久性模拟

运用TaPL3.0模型对7种PBDEs同系物在广州地区的长距离迁移潜力(LRTP)和总持久性(Pov)进行了模拟研究,并通过灵敏度分析得到了模型的关键参数.研究结果显示,PBDEs排放至大气中,特征迁移距离(CTD)为296~811km,均值为557km;Pov为19~279d,均值为184d;PBDEs平均约有73.8%分布在土壤中,16.9%分布在沉积物中,9.3%分布在其他三相中.PBDEs排放到水体时,CTD为3090~4291km,均值为3731km;Pov范围为228~854d,均值为731d;平均约92.1%分布在沉积物中,6.8%分布在水相中,1.1%在大气、土壤和植被相中.BDE47迁移潜力最大,BDE209易残留于源区形成点源性污染.PBDEs各同系物主要分布在沉积物和土壤中.随着溴代程度升高,CTD逐渐降低,Pov逐渐升高,与国外研究趋势一致.