泸定县农业资源生态系统评价与决策分析

文章综合分析了影响泸定县农业生态系统因素间的关系,建立了评价与决策分析层次模型。通过层次模型判断矩阵的运算,求出各层次因素相对目标层重要性的合成权值,并在此基础上评价泸定县农业资源生态系统的效益水平和优选该系统建设决策措施实施的最佳顺次结构。     

Evaluating wilderness recreational opportunities: Application of an impact matrix

An inventory of the severity and spatial distribution of wilderness campsite impacts in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks identified a total of 273 distinct nodes of campsites or “management areas.” A campsite impact matrix was developed to evaluate management areas based on total impacts (correlated to the total area of campsite development) and the density, or concentration, of impacts relative to each area's potentially campable area. The matrix is used to quantify potential recreational opportunities for wilderness visitors in a spectrum from areas offering low impact-dispersed camping to those areas offering high impact-concentrated camping. Wilderness managers can use this type of information to evaluate use distribution patterns, identify areas to increase or decrease use, and to identify areas needing site-specific regulations (e.g., one-night camping limits) to preserve wilderness resources and guarantee outstanding opportunities for solitude.     

A COMPLEMENTARY TOOL TO WATER QUALITY INDEX: FUZZY CLUSTERING ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: A general methodology for fuzzy clustering analysis is developed and illustrated with a case study of water quality evaluation for Dianshan Lake, Shanghai, China. Fuzzy clustering analysis may be used whenever a composite classification of water quality incorporates multiple parameters. In such cases, the technique may be used as a complement or an alternative to comprehensive assessment. In fuzzy clustering analysis, the classification is determined by a fuzzy relation. After a fuzzy similarity matrix has been established and the fuzzy relation stabilized, a dynamic clustering chart can be developed. Given a suitable threshold, the appropriate classification is worked out. The methodology is relatively simple, and the results can be interpreted to provide valuable information to support decision making and to aid water quality management.     

油气储运设施事故风险指数模糊逻辑评估方法

油气储运设施风险是其事故发生概率和事故后果的综合度量,而事故概率和后果的定量评估结果往往是具有不确定性的数据,以确定性风险评估准则为基础的传统风险矩阵法和风险值法显然难以评估油气储运设施风险。为此提出开展油气储运设施事故风险的模糊逻辑推理法,首先,对风险矩阵的概率语言等级和损失语言等级的边界进行定量划分;然后,建立油气储运设施风险矩阵模糊集和模糊逻辑推理规则;最后,通过风险模糊推理运算和模糊风险解模糊化以确定油气储运设施的风险水平。实例应用与分析表明,利用推荐方法可得到较为详尽的风险数据信息,不但风险指数更加清晰,而且其所属风险等级类别也更加明确,评估结果能更好地指导油气储运设施的风险管理。     

郑州市春季大气挥发性有机物污染特征及源解析

对2018年春季郑州市5点位进行环境大气挥发性有机物(VOCs)罐采样及组分分析,开展其污染特征、臭氧生成潜势(OFP)、气溶胶生成潜势(AFP)和来源解析研究.结果表明,郑州市春季VOCs体积分数为(30. 66±13. 60)×10-9,烷烃占比最高(35. 3%),其次为OVOCs(25. 3%)、卤代烃(24. 1%)、芳香烃(10. 0%)和烯烃(5. 2%);总OFP为195. 53μg·m-3,烷烃、烯烃、芳香烃、卤代烃和OVOCs贡献率分别为25. 6%、17. 8%、38. 9%、5. 8%和11. 9%;总AFP为0. 95μg·m-3,芳香烃贡献率最高(87. 6%),其次为烷烃(12. 4%);秦岭路和经开区点位正戊烷、异戊烷、苯和甲苯受机动车影响较大,郑州大学点位主要受燃烧源影响;源解析显示机动车尾气及LPG挥发、溶剂使用源、工业过程源、区域老化气团和植物源对采样期间VOCs浓度贡献依次是30. 5%、27. 3%、22. 1%、14. 4%和5. 7%.     

地震灾害损失预测的动态分析模型

本文提出了一个地震灾害预测的动态分析模型。这个模型基于概率理论基础,考虑了一个城市因建设的发展,新房屋日益增多,部分旧房屋被淘汰,对城市抗震能力引起的变化;和由于经济的发展,社会财富的增加,对地震损失的影响。为解决这—问题,文中提出了动态震害矩阵和动态损失矩阵的求解方法。根据这一方法可以预测未来不同年代的地震经济损失。     

Characterization of flow and transport processes within the unsaturated zone of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, under current and future climates

This paper presents a large-scale modeling study characterizing fluid flow and tracer transport in the unsaturated zone of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, a potential repository site for storing high-level radioactive waste. The study has been conducted using a three-dimensional numerical model, which incorporates a wide variety of field data and takes into account the coupled processes of flow and transport in the highly heterogeneous, unsaturated fractured porous rock. The modeling approach is based on a dual-continuum formulation of coupled multiphase fluid and tracer transport through fractured porous rock. Various scenarios of current and future climate conditions and their effects on the unsaturated zone are evaluated to aid in the assessment of the proposed repository's system performance using different conceptual models. These models are calibrated against field-measured data. Model-predicted flow and transport processes under current and future climates are discussed.     

False-positive diagnosis of trisomy 21 using fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) on uncultured amniotic fluid cells

An amniocentesis was performed on a 22-week pregnancy following the detection of foetal abnormalities on ultrasound. A rapid aneuploid screen using fluorescence in situ hybridisation on uncultured amniotic fluid cells revealed 3 signals for chromosome 21, consistent with trisomy 21. In situ metaphase cultures revealed a 46,XY normal male karyotype. These discordant results may be explained by a sub-standard batch of the commercially available probe or alternatively, a very specific variation within the sample interacting with the probe. Alternative strategies are proposed in order to safeguard against inappropriate clinical action as a consequence of discordant results. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

均相Fenton法深度处理丙烯腈生化尾水

采用均相Fenton法深度处理丙烯腈生化处理工艺尾水,通过单因素法分析了H_2O_2投加量、Fe~(2+)投加量、初始p H值和反应时间对尾水COD去除率的影响;并采用中心响应曲面法优化Fenton处理的工艺参数,得到最佳反应条件为:Fe~(2+)投加量为1.02 mmol·L-1,H_2O_2投加量为11.13 mmol·L~(-1),初始pH值为3.66,反应时间为105 min,COD去除率达到61.1%.处理后尾水COD值低于50 mg·L~(-1),可满足石化行业一级排放标准.Fenton工艺对尾水中特征污染物均有较好的去除效果,最佳反应条件下丙烯腈、间苯二甲腈、3-氰基吡啶的去除率分别为99.5%、97.6%、73.7%;Fenton法对3种特征污染物的降解能力从大到小依次为:丙烯腈间苯二甲腈3-氰基吡啶.三维荧光光谱分析表明,尾水中存在大量类富里酸荧光物质,其中,紫外区类富里酸含量最高,Fenton工艺在较短反应时间和较少的试剂投加量条件下,便可有效地去除这类难降解物质.     

城镇化河流DOM组成结构及与水质相关性研究

应用三维荧光技术和多元统计方法,分析城镇化河流水溶性有机物(DOM)组成结构特征,研究其与河水水质的相关性.根据人类活动对沈阳市白塔堡河影响程度的不同,分别在农村、城镇与城市河段设置3个采样点,采集水样.结果发现,河水营养水平由高到低的顺序为城市河段城镇河段农村河段,而水质由好变差的顺序为农村河段城镇河段城市河段.河水DOM由类酪氨酸、类色氨酸、类糖化蛋白、微生物代谢产物、类富里酸和类胡敏酸组成,主要成分为类蛋白,类蛋白含量由高到低的顺序为城市河段城镇河段农村河段.从源头到入浑河口,类蛋白丰度增长最大,类胡敏酸丰度增长最小,类富里酸介于两者之间.DOM的腐殖化程度由强到弱的顺序为城市河段城镇河段农村河段.影响河水营养状态的潜在因子包括COD、NH3-N、BOD5、DO和类蛋白,农村河段主要污染物来源于农村生活污水及养殖废水,城镇河段污染物来源于生活废水与工业园排水,城市河段污染物来源于处理和未处理的生活污水及工业废水.河水受人类活动影响由大到小的顺序为城市河段城镇河段农村河段.