自然灾害变动的集成预测模型及其应用

本文提出了以非线性回归拟合发展趋势、正弦函数逼近周期变动和马尔可夫链刻划随机扰动的集成预测模型，并应用于山东省农业自然灾害成灾面积的变动规律模拟，得到了较好的预测效果。理论和实践表明，集成预测模型优于传统的单模型预测，为预测具有复杂机制的自然灾害演变提供了一种新方法。     

亭子口库区水质汞的污染特征及建库后水体中汞的预测

亭子口水利枢纽位于喜陵江平流苍溪县城以上，１５ｋｍ处。本文根据嘉陵江广元段水质监测资料，分析库区地面水体中汞的现状污染特征，并运用沉积物的负指数方程预测库区建坝后水体中汞的浓度。     

地震序列的h值快速震型判别与强余震预测

用数值拟合的方法对１９６６年以来７６个ＭＬ≥５．５地震序列的衰减特性进行了较详细的研究，提出从ｈ值的逐日时间扫描和逐日累积时间扫描两个方面去把握地震序列的衰减过程并将其用于强余震（含双震）的预测和震型的快速判定。     

蠕变－样条联合模型及其在滑坡时间预报中的应用

根据滑坡演化的一般规律并考虑到外动力因素对斜坡变形破坏的影响，提出了一种蠕变与样条的联合模型。通过新滩滑坡和链子崖危岩体的实例分析，采用蠕变－样条联合模型进行滑坡位移数据分析和临滑时间预报。初步研究表明，联合模型与其它模型相比具有使用方便和精度高等优点     

单一震源地震发生的等效物理模型

建立了模拟单一潜在震源区地震孕育和发生的等效物理模型，给出了通过调整各次地震之间断层位移速率来拟合已有地震序列的方法。通过考虑模型参数的不确定性，提出了在未来一定年限内潜在震源区发生震级在不同震级段的概率预报方法。通过两种等效物理模型的对比，本文认为就工程地震危险性评定而言，可用简单的滑块－弹簧模型代替滑块－弹粘塑性模型     

近百年广西汛期降水的诊断及预测研究

本文利用奇异谱分析及最大熵谱方法对广西近百年前、后汛期降水进行诊断分析，结果表明：广西前汛期降水主要存在20-30年的长期变化、2～3年左右的准两年振荡及12-16年左右的年代际变化；后汛期降水除存在明显下降趋势外，还存在20-30年的长期变化、2-3年左右的准两年振荡及4年左右振荡周期。且各主要振荡模振幅有明显的低频振荡特征，在不同时段里表现有强有弱。结合白回归方法对重建分最预测的基础上进行降水趋势预测，从1998-2005年预测结果来看，效果较好。     

我国东亚飞蝗发生的气候背景及长期预测

我国东亚飞蝗的发生发展与大气环流的变化密切相关。对1952—1999年我国东亚飞蝗的发生面积与大气环流的74项特征指标值进行了相关研究。结果表明，上一年9月到当年4月大西洋副高面积、强度、脊线位置、北界，上一年9月、10月西藏高原指数，当年1月、2月、5月亚洲区极涡面积。北半球1月极涡面积，亚洲3月纬向环流指数以及亚洲5月经向环流指数与我国蝗虫发生面积相关明显。其中大西洋副热带高压对我国东亚飞蝗发生的影响主要是通过影响秋冬季节蝗卵的孵化和越冬期间的地面温度，从而影响蝗卵基数和孵化为成虫的数量，进而影响着我国东亚飞蝗发生、发展和危害情况的变化。通过上述对蝗虫发生有明显影响的大气环流特征值进行回归分析，结果表明。上年9月和当年4月大西洋副高脊线、3月大西洋副高北界、上年9月西藏高原指数、5月亚洲区极涡面积和3月亚洲纬向环流指数与发生面积拟合较好，说明这些大气环流特征值的强弱是决定东亚飞蝗发生的关键因素。     

Discriminate Analysis for Dust Storm Prediction in the Gobi and Steppe Regions in Mongolia

A discriminate analysis method for probability forecast of dust storms in Mongolia has been developed. The prediction method uses data recorded at 23 meteorological stations in the Gobi and steppe regions of Mongolia, including surface air pressure and geo-potential height at the 500-hPa level on grid points, and weather maps from 1975 to 1990. Weather elements such as air temperature, pressure, geo-potential height etc, which influence the formation of dust storms, are prepared as predictors. To select the most informative/important predictors (variables), we used a mean correlation matrix of variables together with the Mahalonobis distance, and correlation coefficients between dust storms and predictors with an orthogonalization for removing correlated predictors. The most informative predictors for dust storm prediction are intensities of surface cyclones and migratory anticyclones, passage of cold fronts, the horizontal gradients of the surface air pressure in the cold frontal zone, cyclonic circulations from the ground surface up to the 500-hPa level, the geo-potential height at 500-hPa level and its temporal changes. Selected predictors are used in discriminate analysis for formulating dust storm prediction equations. Sandstorm data have been classified into three classes, viz., strong, moderate and weak dust storms, depending on their intensities, durations and areas covered. Predictions of the probabilities of dust storm occurrence use the prediction equations for each class. The prediction is made from 12 hours to 36 hours. Verification of the probability forecasts of dust storms is also shown. The accuracy of forecasts is 72.2–79.9% with the data used for developing equations (dependent variables), in contrast to 67.1–72.0% with unrelated data for deriving equations (independent variables).     

大气环境影响评价工作分级要求要点

根据大气环境影响评价工作的分级要求,提出了针对性的工作要点,以满足大气环境评价工作的需要.     

Non-native Species <Emphasis Type="Italic">DO</Emphasis> Threaten the Natural Environment!

Sagoff [Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics 18 (2005), 215–236] argues, against growing empirical evidence, that major environmental impacts of non-native species are unproven. However, many such impacts, including extinctions of both island and continental species, have both been demonstrated and judged by the public to be harmful. Although more public attention has been focused on non-native animals than non-native plants, the latter more often cause ecosystem-wide impacts. Increased regulation of introduction of non-native species is, therefore, warranted, and, contra Sagoff’s assertions, invasion biologists have recently developed methods that greatly aid prediction of which introduced species will harm the environment and thus enable more efficient regulation. The fact that introduced species may increase local biodiversity in certain instances has not been shown to result in desired changes in ecosystem function. In other locales, they decrease biodiversity, as they do globally.