DEVELOPMENT OF DESIGN STORM HYETOGRAPHS FOR CINCINNATI,OHIO1

ABSTRACT A synthetic storm rainfall hyetograph for a one-year design frequency is derived from the one-year intensity-duration curve developed for Cincinnati, Ohio. Detailed rainfall data for a three-year period were collected from three raingages triangulating the Bloody Run Sewer Watershed, an urban drainage areas of 2380 acres'in Cincinnati, Ohio. The advancement of the synthetic storm pattern is obtained from an analysis of the antecedent precipitation immediately preceding the maximum period of three selected durations. Rains which produced excessive runoff at least for some duration were considered only. The same approach can be used for other design frequencies. The purpose of this study is to provide synthetic storm hyetographs to be used as input in deterministic mathematical models simulating urban storm water runoff for the design, analysis and possible surcharge prediction of sewer systems.     

地震和降雨作用的矿山排土场稳定性分析

为了研究不同工况对矿山排土场边坡稳定性的影响,在调查分析排土场工程地质特征、散体和地基土物理力学性质、结构特征和稳定性影响因素的基础上,运用极限平衡法对排土场在正常运行、地震、连续降雨3种工况下的稳定性进行了分析。研究表明:3种工况下排土场均处于稳定状态,但在地震条件下排土场边坡稳定安全系数储备较低,可能发生浅层滑坡,对坡脚下部的高压线铁塔和铁路线构成威胁,提出了修筑防滚石挡墙,做好排土场安全监测、排水、日常安全管理工作等对策措施。     

中国交通运输碳排放时空演变及差异分析

核算了2003—2012年间中国30个省域的交通运输碳排放量和碳排放强度,分析了交通运输碳排放时空演变规律,分别计算了中国东、中、西部的交通运输碳排放量和碳排放强度的标准差和变异系数以定量分析其差异.结果表明:2003—2012年10年间,中国30个省域交通运输碳排放量呈逐年增长趋势,并整体呈现"西低东高"的特征,其中,湖北、广东和山东三省的总量居前3位,而内蒙古、吉林和重庆这3个省份(直辖市)的增速最快;交通运输碳排放强度整体上全国呈增长趋势,呈现出"西高东低"的非均衡变化特征;交通运输碳排放强度绝对差异增速趋缓,自2008年后三大区域的标准差和变异系数都呈现明显趋同效应.     

非饱和红壤土降雨入渗室内模拟试验

以江西省域范围内典型红壤土为研究对象,利用自行研制开发的降雨模拟试验设备与渗透试验装置,设计了大雨工况下土体初始含水率、干密度、降雨累积时间及降雨后土体静置时间等对其渗透性影响的室内试验。试验结果显示,土体渗透性随初始含水率的升高逐渐降低,给出的宏观渗透系数公式定量化描述了不同初始含水率的可渗透性强弱程度;在初始含水率相对固定的情况下,土体渗透性随干密度的增大逐渐减小,且干密度增大到一定程度后其渗透性锐减,各水平之间的差异性不再明显;累积降雨时间会显著影响深部土体的渗透性,降雨历时越长,深部土体的含水率越高;雨水的在降雨过程停止后继续沿土体纵深入渗,致使表层含水率降低,深部含水率提高,含水率特征曲线趋向竖直。     

Estimating Lag to Peak between Rainfall and Peak Streamflow with a Mixed‐Effects Model

We test the use of a mixed‐effects model for estimating lag to peak for small basins in Maine (drainage areas from 0.8 to 78 km²). Lag to peak is defined as the time between the center of volume of the excess rainfall during a storm event and the resulting peak streamflow. A mixed‐effects model allows for multiple observations at sites without violating model assumptions inherent in traditional ordinary least squares models, which assume each observation is independent. The mixed model includes basin drainage area and maximum 15‐min rainfall depth for individual storms as explanatory features. Based on a remove‐one‐site cross‐validation analysis, the prediction errors of this model ranged from ?42% to +73%. The mixed model substantially outperformed three published models for lag to peak and one published model for centroid lag for estimating lag to peak for small basins in Maine. Lag to peak estimates are a key input to rainfall–runoff models used to design hydraulic infrastructure. The improved accuracy and consistency with model assumptions indicates that mixed models may provide increased data utilization that could enhance models and estimates of lag to peak in other regions.     

The use of newspaper data in historical earthquake studies

Studies of historical British earthquakes are an essential component of assessing seismic hazard in the U.K.; such studies rely heavily on macroseismic data obtained from printed newspapers. This paper discusses the ways in which newspapers have reported British earthquakes and the nature and limitations of the data that may be acquired from this source. Historical changes in the press as a source of macroseismic data are discussed. It is suggested that an understanding of the background and nature of newspaper data is an important component in the process of revaluating historical earthquakes from such data.     

Effects of Spatial and Temporal Data Aggregation on the Performance of the Multi‐Radar Multi‐Sensor System

The objectives of this study were to (1) evaluate the performance of the Multi‐Radar Multi‐Sensor (MRMS) system in capturing precipitation compared to gauge data, and (2) assess the effects of spatial (1–50 km) and temporal (15–120 min) data aggregation scales on the performance of the MRMS system. Point‐to‐grid comparisons were conducted between 215 rain gauges and the MRMS system. The MRMS system at 1 km spatial and 15 min temporal resolutions captured precipitation reasonably well with average R², root mean square error (RMSE), and percent bias (PBIAS) values of 0.65, 0.5 mm, and 11.9 mm; whereas Threat Score, probability of detection, and false alarm ratio were 0.57, 0.92, and 0.40, respectively. Decreasing temporal resolution from 15 min to two hours resulted in an increase in R² and a decrease in RMSE, whereas PBIAS was not affected. Reducing spatial resolution from 1 to 50 km resulted in increases in R² and PBIAS, whereas RMSE was decreased. Increasing spatial aggregation scale from 1 to 50 km resulted in an R² increase of only 0.08. Similarly, improvement in R² was only modest (0.17) compared to an eightfold reduction in temporal resolution (from 15 min to two hours). While aggregating data at coarser temporal resolutions resolved some of the under/overestimation issues of the MRMS system, it was apparent even at coarser spatial and temporal resolutions the MRMS system inherently overestimated smaller precipitation events while underestimated bigger events.     

高烈度地震区跨断层隧道不同厚度减震层减震效果分析*

为进一步提高高烈度地震区跨断层隧道抗震性能,基于达万高速天坪寨隧道F1断层段,利用有限差分数值软件FLAC3D对跨断层隧道施设不同减震层厚度减震效果进行研究。结果表明:当天坪寨隧道F1断层段施设减震层厚度为150 mm时,减震效果最优,其次为200,100,50 mm;当施设150 mm减震层时,横向与竖向位移分别减小5.88%与8.50%,最大主应力减小36.02%,最小主应力减小12.21%,最大剪应力减小51.61%,最小安全系数提高52.45%～65.32%。研究结果可为高烈度地震区跨断层隧道抗震设计提供参考。     

天津市经济—环境系统的物质流分析

利用物质流分析工具对天津市经济—环境系统中的物质流进行了分析,分析结果表明:2004年天津市的物质需求总量达到8.68亿t,且增长趋势明显,其中基础设施建设对环境造成了较大扰动,进口物质大于出口物质;城市环境容量总体处于饱和状态,水体污染严重;物质消耗强度不断增长,资源的利用效率处于较低水平。最后,针对存在的问题,提出相应的措施和建议。     

基于小波分析的嫩江、哈尔滨夏季降雨规律研究

基于48 a来的夏季降雨资料,选用Morlet小波分析方法对嫩江、哈尔滨夏季降雨序列的多时间尺度进行研究.结果表明:哈尔滨近年来夏季降雨在29～38 a尺度周期变化最明显,模值最大,能量最强;嫩江夏季降雨在19～30 a周期变化较强,能量值较大;2个周期变化都具有随时间推移能量进一步加大的趋势.当前嫩江、哈尔滨夏季降雨均处于枯水大周期内,在未来较长时间里,夏季降雨量将低于多年平均降雨量.