多层次模糊综合评判在林业土壤评价中的应用

本文以四川部分林业土壤为例,应用多层次模糊综合评判法进行土壤资源的质量评价。采取聘请众多专家分级、打分的办法制定评价标准和确定评价因素权数。实施了专家系统与综合评判的联合运用技术,并探讨了提高土壤质量评级精度的“加细”评判问题。最后,通过比较多层次模糊综合评判法与传统法(评分法)的评价结果,指出前者具有更强的客观性和全面性。     

Residual risk for cytogenetic abnormalities after prenatal diagnosis by interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH)

Results from conventional cytogenetic studies on 21 609 amniotic fluid specimens were analyzed retrospectively to determine the residual risk for a cytogenetic abnormality if interphase FISH, capable of only detecting aneuploidy for chromosomes 13, 18, 21, X and Y, was performed and did not reveal an abnormality. Detection rates (the probability of detecting a cytogenetic abnormality when an abnormality is present) and residual risks (the likelihood of a cytogenetic abnormality, in view of normal interphase FISH results) were calculated for the four major clinical indications for prenatal diagnosis (advanced maternal age, abnormal maternal serum screen indicating increased risk for trisomy 18 or trisomy 21, abnormal maternal serum screen indicating increased risk for neural tube defects and ultrasound abnormality). Differences in detection rates were observed to depend on clinical indication and presence or absence of ultrasound abnormalities. The detection rate ranged from 18.2 to 82.6% depending on the clinical indication. The detection rates of abnormalities significant to the pregnancy being evaluated (i.e. abnormalities excluding familial balanced rearrangements and familial markers) were between 28.6 and 86.4%. The presence of ultrasound abnormalities increased the detection rate from 72.2 to 92.5% for advanced maternal age and from 78.6 to 91.3% for abnormal maternal serum screen, indicating increased risk for trisomy 18 or trisomy 21. With regard to residual risk, the risk for a clinically significant abnormality decreased from 0.9–10.1%, prior to the interphase FISH assay, to a residual risk of 0.6–1.5% following a normal interphase FISH result in the 4 groups studied. Providing patients with detection rates and residual risks, most relevant to their situation (clinical indication and presence or absence of ultrasound abnormality) during counseling, could help them better understand the advantages and limitations of interphase FISH in their prenatal diagnostic evaluation. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于层次分析-模糊综合评判的化工园区安全评价研究

应用模糊数学理论,把模糊综合评价方法具体应用到化学工业园区安全综合评价研究中,结合化工园区的实际情况,建立了化工园区的安全现状综合评价指标体系,采用定性与定量相结合的层次分析法计算评价因素的权重,运用模糊综合评判理论,提出安全现状二级模糊综合评价方法,实现对化工园区安全等级的综合评判。应用该方法对某化工园区的安全现状进行了综合评价,得出其安全等级为"一般"。实例表明:模糊综合评价方法可操作性强、效果较好,可在化工园区的安全综合评价中广泛应用。     

基于OSHMS的煤矿模糊综合安全评价管理模型的建立

针对目前我国煤矿企业安全管理现状,以一种全新的思路结合职业安全健康管理体系(OSHMS)的系统化体系结构及其先进之处,以预防为主,持续改进为动力,建立了基于生产过程的绩效测量、人员职责分配、运行控制和风险管理为核心的4个主要因素的安全评价管理模型;并以此为指导建立安全评价指标体系框架,运用模糊综合安全评价的方法对指标体系进行合成;最后,结合矿井生产过程中的供电系统,对淮南潘三矿现场进行实例应用,证明其可行性。该管理模型对煤矿企业安全管理有推广和借鉴意义,可望为煤矿企业通过安全管理实现科技兴安提供一种更可靠,更有效的安全管理方法。     

三种综合评价数学模型优选旅游区发展影响因素比较

以优选旅游区发展影响因素为例，阐明3种综合评价数学模型的特点及选择数学模型的原则，同时介绍了如何加强综合评价的科学性和合理性。     

工业园区氯碱项目环境风险预测评价——以新疆某城市工业园区氯碱项目为例

对工业园区引入的化工项目进行环境风险评价,是园区规划的重点工作之一。对氯碱生产项目潜在的环境风险环节进行识别和风险类型的确定,对发生泄漏性事故进行环境风险评价,预测了事故发生对环境的影响程度及范围。对事故发生后的风险提出防范和应急减缓措施,并对项目提出规划建议。     

燃煤电厂烟气脱硫技术综合评价研究

应用模糊数学原理和层次分析法，从经济、技术和环境三方面综合评价烟气脱硫技术，使烟气脱硫技术的选择更科学。以五种典型烟气脱硫技术为评价对象，应用该综合评价方法得出石灰石-石膏法较优的结论。     

土地督察对土地市场化的影响效果评估

为评估土地督察对土地市场化的影响,论文把目标分解为两个问题:即土地督察制度的实施是否对土地市场化程度产生影响;如果有影响,影响的效果如何。论文收集了2003—2009年的省级面板数据,基于固定效应和随机效应模型估计了土地督察对土地市场化的影响。通过相关检验,采用了固定效应模型的估计结果,并在模型估计的基础上,对影响效果进行了评价。结果表明:①土地督察对土地市场化的发展有积极的促进作用,2007—2009年专项督察覆盖度每提高1%,约能促进土地市场化程度提升0.14%,例行督察覆盖度每提高1%,约能促进土地市场化程度提升1.12%;②通过实施专项督察,2007—2009年全国土地市场化程度分别提升了2.06%、 0.19%和0.55%,通过实行例行督察,2008—2009年全国土地市场化程度分别提升5.01%和12.47%;③2007—2009年通过开展土地督察,全国土地市场化程度分别提高了2.04%、 5.21%和13.02%。     

Water quality evaluation based on improved fuzzy matter-element method

For natural water, method of water quality evaluation based on improved fuzzy matter-element evaluation method is presented. Two important parts are improved, the weights determining and fuzzy membership functions. The coefficient of variation of each indicator is used to determine the weight instead of traditional calculating superscales method. On the other hand, fuzzy matter-elements are constructed, and normal membership degrees are used instead of traditional trapezoidal ones. The composite fuzzy matter-elements with associated coefficient are constructed through associated transformation. The levels of natural water quality are determined according to the principle of maximum correlation. The improved fuzzy matter-element evaluation method is applied to evaluate water quality of the Luokou mainstream estuary at the first ten weeks in 2011 with the coefficient of variation method determining the weights. Water quality of Luokou mainstream estuary is dropping from level I to level II. The results of the improved evaluation method are basically the same as the official water quality. The variation coefficient method can reduce the workload, and overcome the adverse effects from abnormal values, compared with the traditional calculating superscales method. The results of improved fuzzy matter-element evaluation method are more credible than the ones of the traditional evaluation method. The improved evaluation method can use information of monitoring data more scientifically and comprehensively, and broaden a new evaluation method for water quality assessment.