基于事故理论的城市轨道交通风险评价模型研究

笔者分析了城市轨道交通事故,在分析我国其他行业事故分类的基础上,确定城市轨道交通事故分类标准,即重大事故、大事故、险性事故和一般事故,并将不同事故分类情况及专家判断评分,按事故的大小不同换算成可以计算的计算尺度,根据事故种类不同计算出事故折算因子,根据风险理论的评价方法,建立了地铁风险评价模型,对地铁的危险性进行量化定级,并通过具体实例进行综合分析评价,该风险评价模型具有一定的工程意义。     

水环境质量评价3种方法的应用对比

从众多水质评价方法中选取单项指数法、加权均值型指数法、模糊数学法进行介绍,并通过运用这3种方法对大汶河某年监测数据的平均值进行评价.经对比分析发现,加权均值型指数法是一种比较实用的水质评价方法,模糊数学法可以作为必要的补充.     

中国区域创新能力差异变动实证分析

区域创新能力是决定区域经济发展水平和经济增长实力的关键,在建设"创新型国家"的战略背景下,各省市越来越注重区域创新能力的建设。区域创新能力作为一个动态的发展过程,其差异在不断变化,差异可能扩大也可能缩小,区域创新能力的差异性及随时间的波动性对政府相关管理部门的决策具有重要影响。本文以发明专利申请量和大中型工业企业新产品产值衡量区域创新能力,运用Theil系数模型测算了1990-2008年间我国发明专利申请量和大中型工业企业新产品产值的区域差异变动情况。结果发现:发明专利申请量区域差异变动呈现S型曲线;大中型工业企业新产品产值区域差异变动呈现近似倒U型曲线;区间差异和东部地区内部差异在总差异中占主导地位。在此基础上,本文进一步提出了缩小我国区域创新能力差异的针对性政策建议。     

Study On the Hydraulic Characteristics of Taichung Harbour in Taiwan

For this study, field measurements of current profiles, buoy trajectories and the lag of two tidal stations were performed to explore the flow characteristics of Taichung Harbour. in order to distinguish the effects of wind drift current on circulation inside Taichung Harbour, field surveys during both summer and monsoon (winter) season were completed separately. the speed of the drift current was about 3.5% that of the, wind speed, based on the field data. the horizontal dispersion coefficients were close to Bowden's (1965) formula for the tidal current. the water temperature showed a two-layer profile, with the mixing thickness about 4 to 6 metres for the upper layer. the corresponding Richardson number was about 70. the tidal lag between the two tidal stations was 9.68 minutes. All the results agree well with the theoretical results.     

Octanol–air partition coefficients of polybrominated biphenyls

The octanol–air partition coefficients (K_OA) for PBB15, PBB26, PBB31, PBB49, PBB103 and PBB153 were determined as a function of temperature using a gas chromatographic retention time technique with 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis (4-chlorophenyl) ethane (p,p′-DDT) as a reference substance. The internal energies of phase change from octanol to air (Δ_OAU) were calculated for the six compounds and were in the range from 74 to 116 kJ mol⁻¹. Simple regression equations of log K_OA versus relative retention times (RRTs) on gas chromatography (GC), and log K_OA versus molecular connectivity indexes (MCI) were obtained, for which the correlation coefficients (r²) were greater than 0.985 at 283.15 K and 298.15 K. Thus the K_OA values of the remaining PBBs can be predicted by using their RRTs and MCI according to these relationships.     

地面浓度反推法计算石化企业无组织排放源强

对某石化企业储罐区和原油脱酸装置区的无组织排放非甲烷总烃进行监测，对监测数据进行Pearson相关分析，运用地面浓度反推法计算源强。实验结果表明：原油脱酸装置区各采样线浓度间的相关性好，反推出的源强较为准确，50，100，150 m采样线的反推源强非常接近，分别为21.68，21.60，19.76 t/a；而储罐区监测浓度的相关性不佳，该区域的非甲烷总烃无组织排放源可能不单一，不适用地面浓度反推法计算其源强。     

The relationship between diversity profiles,evenness and species richness based on partial ordering

Problems with the notion of evenness, such as ambiguity, proliferation of indices, choice of indices, etc. can be overcome by a more fundamental, mathematical approach. We show that the Lorenz curve is an adequate representation of evenness. The corresponding Lorenz order induces a partial order in the set of equivalent abundance vectors. Also diversity can adequately be studied through a partial order and represented by a curve derived from the classical Lorenz curve. This curve is known as the intrinsic diversity profile (or k-dominance curve) and was introduced by Patil and Taillie (1979) and Lambshead et al. (1981).     

城市工业COD总量优化分配研究

总量控制是控制污染源发展趋势、改善环境质量、实现经济社会可持续发展的重要途径,如何在适度公平的基础上寻求环境、经济、技术、资源等整体最优是环境科学领域的研究课题。本文以工业城市苏州市为例,研究其工业化学需氧量的排放特征,以基尼系数法分行业对其工业化学需氧量排放量的公平性进行评价,并将总量控制与资源、社会和经济相联系,以行业经济效益最大化和增加治理投资费用最小化为目标,利用多目标行业总量优化分配模型对苏州市的工业化学需氧量排放总量进行优化分配。研究结果表明,纺织业、化学原料及化学制品制造业、能源和水的生产与供应业、造纸及木材加工、医药制造业等行业是苏州市的化学需氧量重点排放行业,经优化分配后,COD排放总量削减了10%,新鲜用水量减少了41.81%,行业年总产值增幅达到214.69%,资源和水环境容量在满足一定的经济增长速度的条件下实现优化配置,总量控制制度在市场经济体制下发挥出尽可能大的环境效益和经济效益。     

基于灰关联分析的天津市气溶胶消光特征研究

根据天津市秋季(2006年10月10日～20日)消光系数(bext)、PM2.5、SO2、NOX、NO2、O3质量浓度及相对湿度监测结果,利用灰色关联分析法分析大气消光系数同空气中的几种主要污染要素的相关性。结果表明,与消光系数有关的几种主要指标的灰关联度序为PM2.5NOXRHNO2O3,其中PM2.5与消光系数的灰关联系数达到0.905,远高于其他相关指标。同时对PM2.5和消光系数相关分析表明,监测期间天津市PM2.5质量消光系数为6.04m2/g。     

Laboratory longitudinal diffusion tests: 2. Parameter estimation by inverse analysis

This study focuses on the verification of test interpretations for different state analyses of diffusion experiments. Part 1 of this study identified that steady, quasi-steady and equilibrium state analyses for the through- and in-diffusion tests with solution reservoirs are generally feasible where the tracer is not highly sorptive. In Part 2 we investigate parameter identifiability in transient-state analysis of reservoir concentration variation using a numerical approach. For increased generality, the analytical models, objective functions and Jacobian matrix necessary for inverse analysis of transient-state data are reformulated using unified dimensionless parameters. In these dimensionless forms, the number of unknown parameters is reduced and a single dimensionless parameter represents the sorption property. The dimensionless objective functions are evaluated for individual test methods and parameter identifiability is discussed in relation to the sorption property. The effects of multiple minima and measurement error on parameter identifiability are also investigated. The main findings are that inverse problems for inlet and outlet reservoir concentration analyses are generally unstable and well-posed, respectively. Where the tracer is sorptive, the inverse problem for the inlet reservoir concentration analysis may have multiple minima. When insufficient measurement data is collected, multiple solutions may result and this should be taken into consideration when inversely analyzing data including that of inlet reservoir concentration. Verification of test interpretation by cross-checking different state analyses is feasible where the tracer is not highly sorptive. In an actual experiment, test interpretation validity is demonstrated through consistency between theory and practice for different state analyses.