论减灾效益的显现类型与减灾心理

减灾效益的获得离不开民众的参与,而其参与意识又与减灾效益的可见度有关。减灾效益越能迅速、明确地被人们见到或预见到,人们的减灾参与意识越高。在客观现实中,减灾效益的显现时间具有各种类型,而人们主观意识中“见”到的类型却又可能有质的差异。本文划分了减灾效益的显现类型并提出与论述了与其有关的一些问题,分析了其与主观意识之间的复杂关系,以及影响人们的减灾参与心理的作用机制。进而探讨了如何通过这些关系、机制的认识与把握,效益意识引导,对减灾见效时间意识的人为控制等途径提高民众的减灾参与意识与减灾效益。     

INTERBASIN TRANSFERS: DO WE NEED THEM?'

ABSTRACT
Three main issues are discussed: the demands for additional water stemming from population dispersion; supply alternatives to large-scale interbasin transfers; and the displacement of agriculture from nonprofit regions. It is concluded that population dispersion is unlikely to increase aggregate water demands; that large additional supplies are available from other sources at lesser costs; and that a very likely consequence of large-scale transfers will be the displacement of agriculture in other parts of the country.     

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL TO EVALUATE HYDROLOGIC RISK IN WATER RESOURCE SYSTEM DESIGN1

In this paper, a procedure for analyzing a water resource system with special emphasis on evaluation of acceptable economic risk due to occasional failures to deliver water is proposed. The basic methodology includes the development of a simple mathematical model which describes the physical hydrologic and economic characteristics of a single reservoir irrigation and city water supply system and an evaluation of economic benefits of the system with full and partial deliveries of water. The system is simulated for various combinations of decision variables (system magnitudes) and an optimum design is obtained by response surface technology. Emphasis is placed on the basic model and methodology although, in order to introduce some realism, the procedure is applied to data based on the existing reservoir system on the South Concho River in West Central Texas.     

Developing sinks for CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> through forestation of temperate coastal barriers: an environmental business

Since the 1940s, some sectors of the sand dune barriers of Buenos Aires Province have been forested to fix the sand in the neighborhoods of resort villages. Man took advantage of the maritime climate and the shallow groundwater to introduce pine forests. Today, these forests reach more than 20 m in height and have developed soils of more than 0.05 m in thickness on former arid sands. Field data were referred to Landsat (TM) composite and Normalized Difference of Vegetation Index, NDVI, images to calculate forest density and covered area. Considering published tables of wood density for each species, the amount of total carbon storage was estimated on 318 t C ha^-1 (Mg=10⁶ g) in biomass and 86 t C ha^-1 in soils. The three areas analyzed at Miramar, Necochea and Claromecó have captured 658,868 t of carbon in the last 50 years. It is estimated that 150,000,000 t C could be sequestered within temperate dune barriers of Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil. Besides this ecological point of view, there is an important socio-economic factor that cannot be excluded.Presented at and revised subsequent to the 4th LOICZ Open Science Meeting, Bahía Blanca, Argentina. October 1999.     

Ecological tax reforms and environmental benefits in Italy and Sweden

The paper calculates the implications of including monetary measurements of environmental emission changes for the welfare impacts of ecological tax reforms in Italy and Sweden. Taxes on emissions of SO₂, NO_x and CO₂ are investigated. Country-specific computable equilibrium models are used for estimating net welfare changes of the introduction of these taxes, the incomes of which are used for reducing distorting labour taxes. The results indicate that the inclusion of environmental benefits reduces the costs of ecological tax reforms considerably for both countries, and may even turn into net welfare gains.     

Benefits-based analysis of visitor use of Sorak-san National Park in Korea

Benefits-based management seeks to provide recreation benefits for recreation participants by managing the physical environments in which recreation occurs. This study investigates the relationship between benefits desired by visitors and the physical, social, and managerial characteristics of settings that facilitate realization of recreation benefits. Data such as perceived benefits from recreation experiences, setting attributes that significantly influenced perceived benefits, and sociodemographic variables were collected from 376 visitors to Sorak-san National Park in the eastern part of the Korean peninsula. Cluster analysis was used to group visitors' desired benefits into 12 domains: relationship with nature/scenery, escaping pressure, learning about nature, family togetherness, introspection, exploration, autonomy/achievement, being with friends, leading others, skills/learning, risk taking, and meeting/observing new people. Multiple regression was used to link benefit domains with the characteristics of settings. The social attribute of recreation settings was linked to eight of the ten benefit domains. There were two statistically strong multiple regression correlations: (1) between domain of “relationship with nature /scenery” and the attributes “forest/water,”“attractive nature,” and “facility/maintenance” and (2) between the domain of “escaping pressure” and the attributes “attractive nature” and “social.” The results of this study are useful to managers in their efforts to provide recreation opportunities for visitors to achieve beneficial outcomes.     

BENEFITS FROM WATER CONSERVATION DEPEND ON COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING1

: Substantial reductions in municipal water use are feasible without reducing the quality of life. If conservation measures are preplanned, properly engineered, and coordinated, reductions in utility bills for water, waste water, and energy are estimated at $30+per person per year. Installation of devices to reduce water use, engineering plans to prevent malfunctioning of collecting sewers, and engineered process modifications of treatment facilities must be coordinated to achieve full benefits of water conservation. Pollutant discharges to the aquatic environment are reduced in direct proportion to the reduction in water use.     

The value of the environment – Is it a matter of approach?

This paper discusses why estimates of the benefits of reduced air pollution differ in accordance with the approach used. Estimates based on bottom-up studies of the damage costs related to air pollution usually turn out much lower than estimates based on assessments of the utility of reduced air pollution, obtained for instance by willingness to pay assessments. This is usually explained by the fact that the willingness to pay approach includes the utility aspect of non-market values, and for this reason, it is often preferred to the damage cost approach. This is, however, not the whole story. The paper shows why alternative approaches should not be considered as being in conflict, but rather as means to get supplementary information necessary to put a value on environmental quality. Information from bottom-up assessments of damage costs and from studies of the willingness to pay is used in a macroeconomic model to carry out an evaluation of the social costs of energy saving measures in Hungary.     

Efficient management of eutrophic coastal zones in theory and practice: an application on nitrogen reduction to the Stockholm archipelago

This study estimates efficient nitrogen load reductions to the Stockholm archipelago, a Swedish coastal zone in the Baltic Sea, and compares these with politically determined and implemented nitrogen abatement programs. The region is relatively well equipped with necessary data, and a simple programming model is constructed. The results show a large divergence in efficient nitrogen reductions, mainly due to the divergences in benefit estimates from water quality improvements in the archipelago. However, the results need to be interpreted with caution due to all uncertainties related to predicting net values from changes in nitrogen load to a coastal zone. In spite of this, it is still of policy relevance to infer results which show that the politically determined target coincides with an efficient nitrogen reduction at relatively low benefit estimate, but that actual net benefits could be increased from a reallocation of abatement measures towards more low cost measures.     

随机价格下杉木人工林的碳汇收益及最优轮伐期确定

发展林业碳汇是应对全球气候变化及实现中国2060年碳中和的重要举措。基于改进的Faustmann-Hartman模型,以中国南方浙江、福建和江西三个省份杉木人工林为研究对象,使用时间序列模型拟合并预测中国碳排放权交易市场的碳汇价格,通过蒙特卡洛模拟确定最优轮伐期及碳汇收益。研究结果表明：（1）依次纳入木材收益、地上生物量碳汇收益和死亡有机质碳汇收益时,杉木人工林的最优轮伐期分别为21.85年、22.98年和22.88年;（2）上述三种情景下,林地期望价值的净现值分别为20408.20元/hm²、24587.29元/hm²和28101.11元/hm²;（3）全面考虑包含死亡有机质碳库在内的林业碳汇效益,能够稳定提高林地所有者收益约7.02%~21.61%。此外,应进一步考虑多轮伐期下税收政策及自然风险等因素对碳汇营林的影响,这是确定最优轮伐期和碳汇收益后续研究值得重视的问题。